投資基本法

股市預測 (十二) 基本分析-騙人的投資專家(經紀佬)

2008-02-20T05:00:00.000-08:00

格雷厄姆認為
一圖表分析不可能是一門科學。
二它在過去並不能證明這是可以在股市賺錢的一種可靠方法。
三它的理論建立在不完善的邏輯和純粹武斷的推論。
四它之所以盛行是因為它比毫無章法的投資方法更形優勢，但這種優勢會因追隨者眾而日漸喪失。

如果格雷厄姆所言不虛，大家就要小心。我記得某電視台烽煙投資節目，主持人通常只利用圖片就告訴投資者做出追、揸、沽甚至溝貨的決定。根據格雷厄姆的準則，這些所謂投資專家全部都是信口開河，亂點一通。你如果跟隨這些人的指示而行，輸錢的機會可能不會大增，但也不會大減。因為大家如果相信市場是隨機的話，他們說中的機會是五十／五十。

那麼這些所謂專家為什麽要「老點」觀眾。原因很簡單，點你他們才能賺錢。這些投資專家多數來自不同的經紀行，他們代表的是行業的利益，只要你有賣有買他們才可以抽取佣金。如果大家都是長線投資者，他們只能喝西北風。所以在節目中這些人多數建議觀眾做出各式賣買決定。我見過最精典的場面是觀眾手上股票大跌，他建議觀眾溝貨。在1940年Fred Schweb, Jr有一本經典的書叫《顧客的遊艇在哪裡？》(Where Are the Customers' Yachts?)，一位住在美國中西部的農人，退休之後到各地去遊覽，有一次參加到紐約觀光的旅行團，由於紐約的華爾街是全世界的金融重鎮，當然也在行程之列，農人對於華爾街能夠有如此繁榮的景象驚異不已，心想這裡一定創造出不少大富翁。果不其然，接著導遊領著他們到紐約長島(Long Island)的碼頭，一一為他們介紹，這是某某銀行家的豪華遊艇，那是某某名股票經紀人的私人遊艇，令農人欽羡不已，但是他突然納悶的問了一句：「那客戶的遊艇停在那裡呢?」。答案我想大家都心中有數。

股市預測 (十一) 基本分析-格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的一些忠告

2008-02-19T04:11:00.000-08:00

格雷厄姆認為根據詳盡分析，本金安全而回報滿意的操作稱為投資。不符合這一標準的操作就是投機。

在投資股票方面，他訂下三重標準：
一適量及準時的股息回報。
二穩定而充足的收益記錄。
三足量的有形資產保障。
就以上三點而言，直至今時今日滙豐(0005)還算得上一隻不可多得的好股票。

但是在大牛市時，以下的推論值得注意：
一息率和股價相關性不大。
二公司的賺錢能力和資產沒有直接的聯繫，因此資產的大小毫不重要。
三以往的收益狀況的意義僅在於預示未來收益可能出現的變化。
以上推論對增長股而言十分貼切。

他希望個人投資者可以
一在市場蕭條價格低靡時入貨，在市場繁榮價格高漲時離場。
二將投資分散在多個領域甚至不同的國家。
三通過全面而專業的統計分析，吸納價值被低估的股票。

股市預測 (十) 基本分析-以格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)為師

2008-02-16T04:33:00.000-08:00

格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)及多爾(David Dood)的巨著《證券分析》是基本分析的鼻祖。在此我會簡畧地介紹本書的精髓。作者認為證券分析有二重功能：

首先，它有描述性功能。就清楚明白地去表達一隻股票的重要事實。這包括公司的業務、主要股東、業務展望和回顧、綜合損益表、資產負債表、現金流量、財務比率、盈利預測、股本變化和公司動向。更深一步的描述是在財務比率上和同類型公司進行比較。

其次，是選擇和判斷功能。就是嘗試決定購入、沽出或持有某一股票。例如中石油(857)在2002年12月的收市價是1.57元，而它的PE是6.01，PB是0.89而PC(Price/Cash)是2.87，息率是6.26%。對一間中國最大的石油公司，它的市值遠遠低於其內在價值。因此，基本分析令投資者做出購入的決定。而中石油(857) 現價11.7元，它的PE是14.59，PB是3.57而PC(Price/Cash)是43.3，息率是3.15%。和2002年相比，貴了很多。但和競爭對手中海油(883)相比，中海油的現價12.78元，PE是17.39，PB是5.13而PC(Price/Cash)是38.7，息率是2.11%。大家價值十分接近。基本上格雷厄姆認為證券分析的目的不是找出內在價值，而是搞清楚某一股票的內在價值是否足够。而2002年1.57元的中石油(857)的確是十分吸引的。

股市預測 (九) 基本分析 – 為人詬病之處

2008-02-14T04:53:00.000-08:00

在市場上，專業投資者多數跟隨基本分析。其中表表者，在外國有巴菲特，在香港有林森池。但是在大學的學者對基本分析有以下的批評：

市場是隨機的，政策轉變和環境因素難於預期。幾年前大家很難想像次按對金融股的衝擊如此的巨大。因此無從在基本之處做分析。無論巴菲特或林森池都不能預知未來，提出警告。之前次按方興未艾之時，林森池甚至提出次按不是大問題的論點。

基本分析建基在對公司年報內各種財務資料的分析，但沒人可以保證這些數字沒有問題。有些公司甚至投股票分析員所好，堆砌一堆美麗但虛假的數字。盡管有核數師把關，也還不能防微杜漸，公司出事時真的會欲哭無淚。在香港這種例子也屢見不鮮。

對分析師而言，並是個個都醒目又有批判思維。力有不逮的分析師的分析效果會大打折扣。

而好的分析師，往往會晉身公司管理層或不務正業站出來面對公眾，為自己的公司賣廣告。香港就有很多這樣的財經演員，不斷的曝光令他們沒有時間進行認真的分析。

但無論如何，基本分析和技術分析相比，對學者和尊業投資者更具說服力。

股市預測 (八) 基本分析 – 淫照的啟示

2008-02-12T17:33:00.000-08:00

基本分析(Fundamental analysis)是十分有用的測市工具。廣義而言，基本分析關心的是政治因素、經濟資料甚至是社會新聞對股市起跌的影響。

舉幾個例子大家一看就會明白。在政治方面，台灣大選如馬英九當選更有利中台兩地的經濟融合，整體上有利台灣經濟發展，台股不升也難。但香港的中介港地位會下降，有關轉口行業的股票如台灣因素佔得重就會影響營利。如果你認為馬英九會大勝而佈局入台股基金，届時可以大賺一筆。

最近我有同事想買Eee PC，發現十分熱賣，需要訂貨。敏感的投資者會購入Asus的股份，就算它不在香港上板，有份提供週邊装置的台灣電子股也有借口熱炒。而最近熱炒的淫照風波，也可能炒低英皇娛樂的股價。

狹義而言，基本分析是利用公司的資料尋找價值增長股或股值低估股。有關方法可参閱本Blog的價值投資法和增長投資法。

股市預測 (七) 隨機漫步理論的數學基礎之温納過程(Wiener processes)

2008-02-10T23:37:00.000-08:00

溫納過程︰在小的時間區段Δt內的變動Δz為：

(1)

其中ε為來自標準化的常態分配N(0,1)的隨機抽取值。任意兩個不同短區段時間Δt的Δz值是獨立的。其遵循第一個特性，Δz本身有一種常態分配

思考在一段相對長的時間T內 z 值的增加。可以z(T) - z (0)來表示。它可以被看作成在N個長度為Δt的小時間區段內，z值增加的加總，其為：

(2)

因此

(3)

其中ε為從N(0，1)的隨機抽取值。

基本溫納過程，dz，發展迄今有零的成長率及1.0的變異率。零成長率意謂著在任何未來的時間，z的期望值等於它的現值，1.0的變異率意謂著在長度為 T 的時間內 z 值變化的變異等於 T。對變數x的廣義溫納過程而言，它可以dz的方式來定義如下：

dx = a dt + b dz (4)

其中 a 與 b 為常數。

為了瞭解運算式(4)，分別考慮右側的兩個組成部分，是有用的。a dt 項暗示x每一個時間單位有一個期望的成長率。去除b dz項，運算式成為：

dx = a dt (5)

也意謂著

(6)

x = x₀+ a t (7)

其中x₀是x在時間0的值。在長度為T的時期內，x以數量T增加。在運算式(4)右側的項目b dz可視為由x所遵循的路徑所附加的噪音或變化。這個噪音或變化是b倍的溫納過程。溫納過程有1.0的標準偏差。其導出b倍溫納過程具有b的標準偏差。在小的時間間隔Δt，x值上的變化Δx，由運算式1和運算式10，寫成

(8)

同樣地討論溫納過程的前提假設，在任何時間間隔T內x值如何的變化，是一種常態分配。因此，在運算式(4)廣義溫納過程的前題假設，有了期待的a值的裂縫比率(rife rate)(即每單位時間的平均裂縫)及b²的變異比率(即每單位時間的變異數)。

它正誘導以建議股票價格遵循著一種廣義的溫納過程；也就是，其具有一個固定的期望裂縫比率以及一個固定的變異比率，不過，這個模型不能捕獲一個股票價格的關鍵方向。就是投資者從一支股票要求期望的報酬百分比，是與股票價格無關的。當股票價格是10 美元時，如果投資者要求每年期望14%的報酬，當它是50 美元時，他們也同樣要求每年期望14%的報酬，其他情形均若相同。很清楚地，那些固定期望裂縫比率假設是不適當而且需要由期望報酬是固定的假設所取代(也就是，期望的裂縫除以股票價格)。假設S是在時間t的股票價格，在S上被期望的漂移比率，針對某些固定的參數μ應該假設為μS。這個意思就是在一段短的時間間隔Δt，在S上期望增加的是μSΔt。參數μ為股票的期望收益率，用小數位表示。

如果股票價格的波動性永遠為零，這個模型暗示著：

ΔS = μSΔt (9)

在極限值Δt趨近於0

dS = μSdt (10)

或著

(11)

所以

S_T= S₀e^μ^T(12)

當S₀和S_T是在時間0和時間T時的股票價格。運算式(12)顯示出當變異比率為零時，股票價格在每單位時間以μ的連續複合比率增長。

實際上，當然股票價格確實顯現出波動性。一個合理的假設是，在一個短期間Δt內報酬百分比的變異量一樣跟股票價格無關。換句話說，當股票價格為50美元時跟當股價為10美元時，投資者一樣不確定報酬百分比。這表明在短時期Δt內變化的標準偏差應該與股票價格成正比並且導出下列模型

dS = μSdt + σSdz (13)

或

dSS = μdt + σdz (14)

本文主要抄錄自MIT 2003年春季投資學課程的筆記。

股市預測 (六) 隨機漫步理論的數學基礎之常態分佈

2008-02-08T18:55:00.000-08:00

如果我們知道在大自然內，好多現象都符合常態分佈，好像人的智力、身高或壽命等生物特徵。科學實驗中的計量誤差(random error)也是常態分佈。為什麼徒多事物都是常態分佈，就不太清楚，相信是上帝放在自然中的秘密。
常態分佈的平均數μ決定了其位置，其標準差σ決定了分佈的幅度。因其曲線呈鐘形，因此人們又經常稱之為鐘形曲線。常態分佈的機率為

計算這個機率，基本上會利用電腦的幫助。

從上圖所見深藍色區域是距平均值小於一個標準差之內的數值範圍。在常態分佈中，此範圍所佔比率為全部數值之 68%。根據常態分佈，兩個標準差之內（藍，棕）的比率合起來為 95%。根據常態分佈，三個標準差之內（深藍，橙，黃）的比率合起來為 99%。

如果假設恆生指數也呈常態分佈，我嘗試利用過去一年恆指每日的最高價，計算出恆指的平均數μ是23934，恆指的標準差σ是3516。因此我可以預測：

將來一年恆指在27450至20418之間，這個可能性有68%。而恆指會高於27450的機會是15.9%。如果我將範圍由加減一個σ增加到加減二個σ，將來一年恆指在30966至16902之間，這個可能性有95%。而恆指高於30966的機會是2.3%。當然如果我將範圍增加到加減三個σ，將來一年恆指在34482至13386之間，這個可能性有99%。

使用這個方法去估市，缺點是每天恆指的變化都會影響平均數μ和標準差σ的數值。我們的預測需要常常更新。特別遇上股市狂升或暴跌後，這種修正在所難免。所以四叔測市，常有調整，不知道是否用上了這個方法。而另一股神陸東也常常要調整他的預測。(一笑) 2008年1月11日《明報》指陸東將恆指的合理值下調至28500，那恆指高於28500的機會是什麼？不妨用我提供的互動試算式計算一下。而何生的恆指破40000的機會，大家也不妨一算。機會率是2.44x10^-6，雖然很小，依然可以發生，不然六合彩頭獎怎會有人中獎？(一笑) 這也說明這個方法捕捉大牛市和大熊市一定會失之交臂。

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股市預測 (五) 隨機漫步理論的數學基礎之二項分佈

2008-02-07T19:32:00.000-08:00

當使用數學去處理隨機漫步理論時，需要考慮兩個因素：結果和可能性。在此介紹一種統計學的工具去處理這個問題。

二項分佈(Binomial Distribution)，一般用二項分佈來計算機率的前提是，只能有兩種結果，而且過去的結果並不影響現在的結果，這個結果每次都隨機發生。二項分佈指出，隨機一次試驗出現的機率如果為 p , 那麼在 n 次試驗中出現 k 次的機率為：

背後所牽涉的計算,大家並不一定需要明白,可以透過程式去解決這個困難。

現在假設恆生指數每天可以出現兩種情況,就是升和跌,而出現升的機會和出現跌的機會剛好相等是0.5，在5天的交易中剛好只有2天是上升的機會透過二項分佈可以計算到是31.25%。我嘗試將有關計算加到網上互動的試算表，你可以自已改變各項數字求各種情況下的機會率。

當然在牛市之時恆指上升的機會大於0.5，可以設成0.6或更高；在熊市之時恆指上升的機會小於0.5，可以設成0.4或更低。不過這樣做略賺主觀，可行的方法可利用杜指和恆指的相關性，設一個更適當的機會率。

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股市預測 (四) 從測不準定律說起

2008-02-04T17:17:00.000-08:00

在量子力學之中，測不準定律(Uncertainty Principle)是一塊重要的基石。簡單而言，它告訴我們可以精確地測量粒子的位置時，我們難於精確地測量粒子的速度。而當我們可以精確地測量粒子的速度時，我們難於精確地測量粒子的位置。這令我們看到測量的本身有它的限制(limitation)。不過，我們的測量最精確可以大於一個概率(probability)。

在自然界中，對於一些測不準現象物理學家嘗試用概率去表示觀察的極限。同時也開啟了一道和經典物理學不同的大門。在投資界，有人嘗試用布朗運動(Brownian motion)去解釋及預測股價的升跌。在1900年，法國數學路易斯(Louis Bachelier)在他的博士論文《投機原理》(The Theory of Speculation)，他首次用布朗運動解釋投機世界。他對布朗運動的研究比愛因斯坦更早了五年。不過路易斯的研究大大超前了他的年代，終其一生都寂寂無名。在五十年代中，有人再次發掘路易斯的舊作，奠定了他財經數學之父的地位。
路易斯

在1970年費雪(Fisher Black)、美倫(Myron Scholes)和布(Bob Merton)利用幾何布朗運動，提出了一個計算期權價格的方法。

要進一步解釋股票隨機理論，牽涉到統計學及微分方程。筆者暫時在此停筆，如果讀者有興趣這方面的討論，不妨透過留言或電郵告訴我。

股市預測 (三) 隨機的可測性

2008-02-03T02:09:00.000-08:00

隨機學派的理論，很多〝估市〞專家對其嗤之以鼻。理由很簡單，如果隨機理論成立的話，各式各樣的〝估市〞專家如同上文所提的黑猩猩一樣，甚至並不比黑猩猩更優秀。這是要打爛專家們的飯碗嗎？因此這一派的說法，在香港少有人提及。也很少有財政專欄作家將它介紹給讀者。

股市是否隨機呢？大家不妨問一問是否有人或有任何的方法可以長期準確地預測在將來某一特定的時間一隻股票的價錢？我想大概沒有人可以做到。這就像我們擲一枚硬幣，它跌下來的時候是〝公〞還是〝字〞，誰也說不準。當然傳說中的股神例外啦。而一隻股票在市場也是一樣，不是升就是跌，第三個可能性是不升不跌。可是到底股價怎麼跑，誰也說不準。在金融財經的世界，也曾經有過一位這樣神乎其技的人物江恩，他的學說現在還有人研究，可惜大師一逝，大樹飄零，至今難見此學派有出的傳人，在市場中獨領風騷，指點江山。股價的變化，也確實有它的隨機性。

哪麼隨機的東西對我們而言是否如瞎子摸象，不能探本溯源呢？其實也非如此，對於物理學家來說，他們對隨機運動的事物早有研究，而且碩果累累。讓我打個比方，在一間密封的房間中，房間裡面每一粒空氣的粒子都正隨機運動。其中一粒粒子的速度，無法預料。過，所有粒子的平均動能和速度，還是可以找到，而且和溫度的高低有關。甚至粒子平均每一步走多遠，一樣可以計算。當然這些計算建基在一些假設之上，在真實的世界裡整個模型(model)需要進一步的微調，才可以和真實世界的形態趨近。在隨機學派的眼中，特定的股票的短期趨勢是不可測的。但是我們需要深思一些問題，在物理世界的計算中，建基於一些假設之上，在現實世界這些假設並不成立，這並不表示整套理論站不住腳，而只是對理論中一些變數在計算時進行微調。在隨機理論中，學者也假設大家可以即時及公平地接收到市場訊息，在真實的世界並非如此，有些人因為個人背景、教育程度、理解能力、搜索和整理資料的能力比另外一些人更高，他們掌握了更大的資訊優勢。這些人也包括了一些內幕消息的掌握者(insider)。雖然資訊革命令這個因素變得不再顯著，但資訊的泛濫一樣令缺乏資訊處理能力的人迷失在資訊的海洋之中，難作取捨，顧此失彼。隨機理論的另一個假設是市場極具效率，股市價錢充分地反影了各種的消息。實際上，市場對各種消息的反應並一定是即時的。最後，對隨機理論一個最大的衝擊是市場有時會陷入瘋狂，大家鬥傻，好多人相信高處未算高，有更傻的人願意在市場以更高的價錢接自己手中的高價貨。隨機理論也假設市場沒有壟斷，過機構投資者比其他人更具壟斷的優勢。

隨機學派的投資者，也模仿物理學家處理隨機運動時使用統計物理學的手段，力圖減低投資之中所見的風險，他們稱此為新投資科技(New Investment Technology)。

以上的一段片子，是利用物理學中的布朗運動(Brownian Motion)模擬而成，和大家熟悉的股市圖表是否有些似曾相識的感覺。

股市預測 (二) 兩種測市態度

2008-02-01T04:47:00.000-08:00

投資者對預測股市有兩種態度：一種是股市是隨機的行為，所以無從預測。用飛標射向報紙的股票版揀出股票，和專家的推介，回報可能不相伯仲，甚至更佳。因為大家都是靠估。這一派的說法其中一本經典之作是Burton G. Malkiel的《A Random Walk Down Wall Street》。之後我會和大家一齊分享這本書的精華。

而另一種投資者認為股市的漲落是可測的。這類的投資者又分成兩大門派，一派叫基本分析派，他們利用人口資料、歷史發展的方向、科學技術的進步等各種基本因素，套入經濟學中模型，嘗試預測未來，較出名的一本書叫《The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History, 2005-2009》，我們也會看看它的預測。

另外一派叫技術分析派，這一派再分門別類就十分複雜。例如有杜氏理論、波浪理論、江恩理論、陰陽燭、圖表形態、中國術數和西方星象學等流派。我個人對技術分析認識最淺，但也會在往後將所知皮毛和大家分享。
順便和大家分享一首歌叫《放得太遲》，好得意。

股市預測 (一) 股神vs估神

2008-01-31T03:24:00.000-08:00

最近，有網友問我可以寫一些和股市預測有關的文章，我回答說我不懂得測市。身在市場的投資者，總是希望有專家向他們指明方向，他們只要跟風行事，就可以賺得盤滿缽滿。香港有些投資者，自己不閱讀財經書籍打好基本功，不看公司年報暸解公司發展，關心政經新聞並思考其對市場的衝擊；他們關心的是電視、雜誌和報紙中的推介，尋找的是林森池、曹仁超、東尼等市場專家的看法和意見。有部分人對投資欠缺獨立思考，賣買股票只跟貼士。這期實和賭博沒有本質上的分別。我自己也十分喜觀看曹仁超的專欄(木宰羊對我而言十分親切，是我的鄉下話。)，聽林森池的分析。不過最重要的是要有自己的過濾和分析，建立自己的賣買系統。做好時妨聽一聽淡友的意見；做淡時也會了解一下好友的觀點。所謂兼聽則明，偏聽則茫。有時像王冠一這種在本港十分罕見持理性態度的分析員，在網上論壇被人罵得狗血淋頭。你會發現有些股民好像澳門賭場內的賭徒，行為反智。

因為市場的需要和期待，在大牛市和IPO中大有斬獲的四叔，透過一場造神運動，由超級大户變成亞洲股神。四叔初初也十分欣賞這個過程，而且盡力和傳媒合作。在牛氣衝天的市場不斷提高他對恆指高位的預測，市場也樂意接受一位大家眾裡尋他千百度而找到的股神四叔。在香港股民如痴如醉之時，股神巴菲特在港市沽出中石油。如果明天恆指可以反彈到33000點，四叔還是會被再次捧上神壇。其實我們要問的是，股神有沒有一套恒常而行之有效的系統去預測市場？如果答案為是，我們遇到的止是股神，而是財神。如果答案為非，我們遇上的則是估神。身為投資者，在〝估神〞的過程中可以看到市場的力量十分大，而且隨著任何人(包括超級大户)的意志而轉移。大户如四叔幾千億的股票，市場幾天的成交額已經可以將其消化。

如果市場如戰場，孫子的名言『夫未戰而廟算勝者，得算多也；未戰而廟算不勝者，得算少也。多算勝，少算不勝，況於無算乎？』我會嘗試在接著的文章和大家分享市場是否可測？到底有些什麽測市之法？

次按風暴(五) 美國經濟是否陷入衰退？

2008-01-29T03:47:00.000-08:00

美國經濟是否陷入衰退？這個話題值得探討。今次我嘗試羅列正反雙方的論點供大家參考。

正方
1. 自年初房地產次貸危機如滾雪球一般愈滾愈大以來，全球各地經濟都受到強烈衝擊，許多世界著名大銀行提列的虧損壞帳有如天文數字，而且還沒有探底，好帳和壞帳夾雜不清，難分難解，迫使各金融機構大幅收縮相互之間借貸，通貨流動性大減，儘管各國中央銀行不斷釋放各種紓困方案，降低利息，效果依然不彰，股市繼續大跌。漫天陰霾籠罩美國經濟，超過半數以上民眾認為現在已經進入經濟衰退。

2. 依據商務部國家經濟研究局 ( National Bureau of Economic Research)的經濟衰退模型預測，美國經濟10月處在衰退中的可能性是16.5%。此一數字高到令人不安，但是又低到讓經濟學家們有把握確信。

3. 無論如何，經濟放緩已無可爭議。一些悲觀的經濟專家指出，這是七年來美國經濟第二次陷入泡沫破裂後的衰退。第一次是2001至 2002年的網路經濟泡沫破裂，這次是房地產和金融信用泡沫破裂，而這次衰退會比淺嘗即止的第一次衰退情況嚴重得多。因為上次網路泡沫破裂造成的商業投資崩潰，影響所及只占全國GDP的13%。而這次崩潰影響到全國消費者口袋，而消費者支出占美國經濟GDP的72%。次貸危機後，房屋抵押的信用融資和重新抵押貸款大幅收縮，消費者難借錢，荷包大縮水，勢必大幅縮減消費支出，消費一萎縮，經濟立即緊縮。想要靠增加工資所得來刺激消費，力道不夠，更何況一旦消費減少，失業就會增加，工資所得很難增加。美國縮減消費會強烈衝擊世界經濟成長。

4. 目前已經明確知道，明後兩年間，各有一百萬戶左右的屋主將交不出房屋貸款，房子將被銀行沒收拍賣，大量空屋上市，房地產市場將持續衰退，抵押融資持續收縮，同時高能源價格和老百姓債務升高加重壓力，明年經濟陷入衰退，已經迫在眉睫。

反方

5. 據華爾街日報經濟學家的預測，經濟衰退的機率為38%，這是三年來最高數字。可是他們仍然認為美國可以避免陷入真正的衰退困穀中。

6. 美國聯邦儲備銀行 (Fed)知道事態緊急，早已著手救急， Fed積極介入，給業界很大信心。現在美元快速貶值，迅速擴大美國出口貿易數量，美國貿易逆差出現多年來首次縮小。同時美元貶值也增加外國投資者購買美國產業、股票和製造業機會。美國房地產就業市場當然不好，但是服務業的就業情況繼續成長。

7. 華爾街日報經濟學家預測，美國明年非農業就業人口每月可以達到8萬4000人，使得全國貿易所得收入仍然保持穩定成長，消費能力不致於一下過分收縮。比較樂觀的經濟學家指出，明年是選舉年，各個地方、州政府，甚至聯邦政府不敢縮減政府服務，都會努力增加政府支出，以投選民所好。為許多人所不知的是，今年各級政府支出占美國GDP成長的四分之一。政府部門支出明年更會加強，其影響不可小視。

8. 最近美國經濟數據表現軟弱不過是對此前強勁表現的“回調”。要知道﹐第三季度實際GDP增幅折合成年率高達4.9%﹐而11月份的零售額增長了1.1%。單月零售額出現下滑並非不同尋常之事。過去5年來﹐月度零售數據每年都至少出現3次負增長。這些數據的下滑可以說是經濟數據的正常波動﹐其原因包括油價波動、季節性調整或是天氣影響等。對此作出過激反應是錯誤的。

9. 考慮到住宅市場是如此低迷﹐近期的工業產值和耐用品訂單數據偏軟是可以理解的。住宅市場目前在美國GDP中只佔很小比重（4.5%）﹐而且這塊市場已經下滑得如此嚴重﹐若儘憑它就讓美國經濟陷入衰退的可能性著實微乎其微。相比之下﹐在美國經濟中比重達到12%的出口卻在以13.6%的速度增長。出口增長正在抵消掉住宅市場低迷而造成的損失。

10. 鑒於所有的債務都是建立在實際經濟活動基礎之上﹐而實體經濟又仍然保持著活力﹐因此美國經濟有“覆舟”之險的警告恐怕不過是杞人憂天。沃倫•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)、威爾伯•羅斯(Wilbur Ross)和美國銀行(Bank of America)都還在買進﹐公司帳上現金還有1.1萬億美元。在場外觀望的買家可謂又多又強﹐道指漲至15,000點的可能性要遠遠大過跌至10,000點的可能性。

其實所有經濟預測如同天氣預報，最近寒流襲港，身為專家的香港天文台也不能準備預測。但我們都感受到寒氣逼人，個個加衣。次按的風暴，到底對經濟是加温或降溫。需要專家，大家也是冷暖自知。

次按風暴(四) 次按風暴何時了

2008-01-28T03:39:00.000-08:00

次按好像一個無底深坑，它對美國和世界的影響是難於估計的。如果美國的經濟良好、失業率低、工資隨通漲向上調整而樓價見底，次按可以即時止血。但是從暫時可見的數據(大家可以參考本Blog的美國重要經濟數據解讀)所見，美國的經濟正和我們的期望背道而馳，次按還沒見底。次按的影響有多嚴重，現在誰也說不準。
布殊政府的退稅措施和聯儲局戲劇性的減息，不會馬上令美國經濟起死回生。有關救次按的措施的效果可能要在兩至三季之後才湧現。股票市場因次按引起的風波勢所難免，大家要扣好安全帶，坐上港股過山車。
到底次按的影響有多嚴重，我嘗試列出一些有根據的數字供大家參考：
以下是各大金融機構在MBS和CDO的撇帳

Company	Business Type	Loss (Billion $)
Citigroup	investment bank	$24.1 bln ^[67]^[68]^[69]
Merrill Lynch	investment bank	$22.5 bln ^[70]^[71]
UBS AG	investment bank	$13.7 bln ^[72]
Morgan Stanley	investment bank	$10.3 bln ^[73]^[74]
Crédit Agricole	bank	$4.8 bln ^[75]
HSBC	bank	$3.4 bln ^[76]
Bank of America	bank	$5.28 bln ^[77]
CIBC	bank	$3.2 bln ^[78]
Deutsche Bank	investment bank	$3.1 bln ^[79]^[80]
Barclays Capital	investment bank	$2.7 bln ^[81]
Bear Stearns	investment bank	$2.6 bln ^[82]^[83]
RBS	bank	$2.6 bln ^[84]
Washington Mutual	savings and loan	$2.4 bln ^[85]^[86]
Swiss Re	re-insurance	$1.07 bln ^[87]
Lehman Brothers	investment bank	$2.1 bln ^[88]^[89]
LBBW	bank	$1.1 bln ^[90]
JP Morgan Chase	investment bank	$2.9 bln^[91]^[92]
Goldman Sachs	investment bank	$1.5 bln ^[93]^[94]
Freddie Mac	mortgage GSE	$3.6 bln ^[95]^[96]
Credit Suisse	bank	$1.9 bln ^[97]^[98]
Wells Fargo	bank	$1.4 bln ^[99]
Wachovia	bank	$3.0 bln ^[100]^[101]
RBC	bank	$0.360 bln ^[102]^[103]
Fannie Mae	mortgage GSE	$0.896 bln ^[104]
MBIA	bond insurance	$3.3 bln ^[105]
Hypo Real Estate	investment bank	$0.580 bln ^[106]
Ambac Financial Group	bond insurance	$3.5 bln ^[107]^[108]^[109]
Commerzbank	bank	$0.427 bln ^[110]
Société Générale	investment bank	$3.0 bln^[111]^[112]

以下是因次按而破產的金融機構

Business	Type	Date
New Century Financial	subprime lender	April 2, 2007
American Home Mortgage	mortgage lender	August 6, 2007
Sentinel Management Group	investment fund	August 17, 2007^[113]
Ameriquest	subprime lender	August 31, 2007
NetBank	on-line bank	September 30, 2007^[114]
Terra Securities	securities	November 28, 2007^[115]
American Freedom Mortgage, Inc.	subprime lender	January 30, 2007 ^[116]

以上數據資料來自維基網。

在這裡我只能嘆一句：次按風暴停不了，港股跌不少。

次按風暴(三) 金融創新的受益者和受害者

2008-01-27T04:42:00.000-08:00

次按本身是一項德政，它令美國很多低收入的家庭有機會擁有自己的物業。美國的置業率在發展國家名列前茅。擁有自己的物業有助低下階層改善生活，累積財富。有些香港網友認為，就算樓價大幅下降，也沒有什麼大不了。香港九七年也有八萬五引起的樓市大跌，銀行和金融機構並沒有因此元氣大傷。其實，香港當年供樓多屬中產一族，他們的收入穩定，對個人債務負責。美國次按的借款人多屬低收入家庭，樓市下跌及經濟逆轉令他們無力承擔債務。

發出次按的銀行和財務公司，面對巨大的風險。充滿創新的美國人，將這些次級按揭貸款收益作為資產和抵押品，使之變成標準化的、具有高級流動性的可交易債券Asset-Backed Security (ABS)，然後將它們賣給投資銀行。這樣，商業銀行或貸款公司的風險，就轉化為投資銀行持有的高風險高收益的投資產品。商業銀行或貸款公司在收到現金後，又可以借出更多次按。投資銀行將有關債券分類、切割，然後同其他債券或金融衍生產品混合，以形成風險收益不同的、形形色色的債務低押債券Collateralized Debt Obligation（CDO）。CDO經過評級機構穆迪、標準普爾的評級和分類，包装再出售，高級別、低風險的CDO成了保險基金、養老金甚至其他國家的銀行的搶手貨；至於風險最高、收益亦最高的那部分，可以直接賣給對沖基金。但更多的時候，投資銀行會親自成立一些對沖基金，把這些高風險CDO剝離給這些對沖基金。

國際清算銀行的數據顯示，新發行的CDO在二零零四年是1,570億美元，二零零五年為2,490億美元，而二零零七年第一季度就達到了2,500億美元。目前，美國住宅按揭抵押債券的規模已高達5.5萬億美元。而美國證券業及金融市場協會的數據顯示，美國CDO市場上流通的證券總價值，己超過9萬億美元。當然，在這些CDO中，次按所佔的比例有限，但經過多次的證券化過程和切割包裝，已經是你中有我、我中有你了。穆迪和摩根士丹利估計，在二零零六年美國銷售的3,750億美元的CDO中，次按債券約為1,000億美元。

複雜的技術操作，令次按債券深深隱藏在龐大的CDO中，保險基金、養老基金等穩健型機構投資者，在購買CDO時很可能已經在不知不覺之間陷入次按陷阱。就是投資銀行與對沖基金本身，它亦往往難以在第一時間將次按帶來的損失計算得清清楚楚，並採取相應的風險化解措施。同時，由於CDO交易多在機會投資者之間進行，缺乏公開性和透明性，外界難以估量影響究竟有多大。事實上，正是由於次按、CDO交易及對沖基金本身缺乏透明性，加劇了市場的恐慌心理，令除國債外的整體債券市場需求枯竭、有價無市，投資者擠兌基金、對沖基金沽售套現，形成了證券市場中的惡性循環和投資者間的悲觀情緒。一旦市場悲觀情緒彌漫，在現化金融體系下，這將是很可怕的事情：市場信心崩潰，導致債券有價無市；若A無法賣出次按債券，也就沒有錢來還其欠B的債務，B也就沒錢還C機構的賬，D乃至X可能真的有錢，但卻緊緊攥在手裏，因為他們不相信其他人會還錢，於是惡性循環愈演愈烈。

美國人的金融創新，將次按風險化成天女散花，衝擊全球。正是：聰明更被聰明誤，次按風暴因創新。

次按風暴(二) 什麼是次按

2008-01-26T03:44:00.001-08:00

次級按揭是指一些本身信貸紀錄欠佳的人，透過借入息率較高的按揭去購入房屋。借貸紀錄欠佳的人保括收入未達標、有不良還款紀錄甚或物業估價不足等種種原因。次級按揭的貸款人多數希望在借貸期間重整和修補個人信貸紀錄，透過轉按的安排，將有關按揭成功轉到最優惠利率按揭或低於最優惠利率按揭。因此多數的次按安排年期會較短。而美國最常見的次按分別是兩年定息期的浮息按揭(Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2/28)和三年定息期的浮息按揭(Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3/27)。在定息期過後，次按的利息將是某個指標利息再加若干厘。例如可以是6個月銀行同業拆息加5厘。

很多借取次按的貸款者，並不太暸解在財務上個人面對的風險。次按設有罰息期，而且罰息期的時間可以比定息期長。在定息期內，借貸人未必可以重整和修補個人信貸紀錄，成功進行轉按。如果經濟良好，工資上調時，借貸人可以因為每月薪金上升而提高供款能力，改善個人信貸紀錄。但當經濟逆轉時，工資甚至會下降。當定息期過後，借貸人無機會轉按，唯有要供浮動高利息。另外，在定息期過後，市場利息如大幅上揚，侵蝕借貸人的供款能力，次按也無法轉按。次按借貸人在買樓時正遇上美國樓市的牛市，他們預期樓價在二三年後大幅上升，有助他們轉按及再估價。可是美國樓市現在步入熊市。借貸人唯有徒呼奈何。而定息期過後，如大量供款人無力供樓，貸款人除收樓外將面對大量壞賬。

理論上，聯儲局大幅減息有助次按業主渡過難關。實際上次按問題並非如此簡單，有關詳情，請待下文敘述。

Technorati : Adjustable Rate Mortgage，ARM, 次按

次按風暴(一) 令人失望的伯南克

2008-01-25T05:04:00.000-08:00

美國的次按，成為最近全球股市狂升暴跌市場大幅波動的原因。聯儲局在面對這次風暴時，初時置之不理。伯南克在2007年8月7日發表的聲明以關注通漲為由，雖見市場有下跌風險也堅拒減息。聯儲局的決定，令市場對新官上任的伯南克大失信心。市況的穩，令聯儲局被逼在2007年8月10日注資市場。在2007年8月17日再發聲明，表示關注信貸緊縮及財經市場的動盪，而且會適時採取行動。在短短十日內聯儲局的政策前言對後語，出手躊躇舉棋不定，市場大失所望之餘更形恐慌。而伯南克也失卻了減息救次按的最佳時機。聯儲局由主動變被動，不能領導市場，而是被市場牽著鼻子走。

2007年9月18日聯儲局被逼减息50點子，去穩定市場和刺激可持續的經濟增長。聯儲局以相同理由在2007年10月31日減息25點子，在2007年12月11日又減息25點子，但市場依然疲弱。2008年1月22日，因環球股市陷入暴跌，聯儲局在驚徨失措中將息率調低75點子至3.5%。市場的觀感，覺得聯儲局進退失據；甚至懷疑市場可能還有未引爆的炸彈。聯儲局至今共減息175點子，但次按風暴越演越烈。落筆打三更，伯南克已令市場屢屢失望。在對抗次按的一仗中如打敗仗的將軍。

預料聯儲局會不斷減息，不過相信二至三季後才有效力。

本文完成後我在華爾街日報見到這段影片，新聞的標題是《Fed大幅降息遭非議》。

Technorati : 次按

美國重要經濟資料解讀（二十）新屋銷售數字和每週住房抵押貸款申請

2008-01-24T01:36:00.001-08:00

這兩個數據是美國樓市的重要指標。在2007年12月28日發表的最新新屋銷售數字的報告如下：

Sales of new one-family houses in November 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 647,000, according to

estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 9.0 percent (±13.9%)* below the revised October rate of 711,000 and is 34.4 percent (±7.9%) below the November 2006 estimate of 987,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2007 was $239,100; the average sales price was $293,300. The
seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 505,000. This represents a supply of 9.3
months at the current sales rate.

New Residential Sales data for December 2007 will be released on Monday, January 28, 2008, at 10:00 A.M. EST.

每週住房抵押貸款申請由抵押貸款銀行家協會（ MBA ）在2008年1月23日發表：

WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 23, 2008) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 18, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure ofmortgage loan application volume, was 981.5, an increase of 8.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 906.4 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 11.0 percent compared with the previous week and was up 63.7 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

"Refinance applications are up 92% since the beginning of November and purchase applications are up 7%. With tighter credit conditions we do not know how many of these applications will become loans, but it is clear that borrowers are responding to the 40-80 basis point drop in rates we have seen since November 2 across products," said Jay Brinkmann, Vice President of Research and Economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The Refinance Index increased 16.9 percent to 4178.2 from 3575.5 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.6 percent to 439.9 from 461.2 one week earlier. The Conventional Purchase Index decreased 5.5 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) increased 1.0 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the Purchase Index increased 1.1 percent to 369.7 from 365.7 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Conventional Index increased 8.3 percent to 1413.7 from 1305.5 the previous week, and the seasonally adjusted Government Index increased 8.2 percent to 260.9 from 241.2 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 13.7 percent to 782.0 from 687.5. The four week moving average is up 2.8 percent to 419.0 from 407.6 for the Purchase Index, while this average is up 23.6 percent to 2967.2 from 2401.5 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66.0 percent of total applications from 62.7 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 9.3 from 9.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.49 percent from 5.62 percent, with points increasing to 1.07 from 0.94 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.96 percent from 5.07 percent, with points increasing to 1.22 from 1.09 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 5.51 percent from 5.77 percent, with points increasing to 1.01 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

從新屋銷售數字所見，11月的數據按月下降9%而按年下跌34.4%。而截且2008年1月28日的住房抵押貸款申請按週上升8.3%，按年上升63.7%。數據之間十分矛盾，銷售下降而住房抵押貸款申請上升，可能是銀行批核信貸十分謹慎，引致個案大量堆積，而在現行信貸環境下，很多申請未必獲得按揭。

Technorati : 新屋銷售數字, 每週住房抵押貸款申請

號外:聯儲局减息0.75息

2008-01-22T06:47:00.001-08:00

聯儲局剛在其網站發出聲明，減息0.75息。聯儲局此行動出乎市場預料之外。疲弱的經濟前景和市場不斷加增的下跌風險是聯儲局出手救市的原因。聯儲局而且指出在將來也會適時出手去處理市場危機。有關行動是否為一劑有效的止痛藥，請大家拭目以待今晚美股及環球市場的表現。

The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent.

The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.

The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Appreciable downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was William Poole, who did not believe that current conditions justified policy action before the regularly scheduled meeting next week. Absent and not voting was Frederic S. Mishkin.

In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Minneapolis.

Technorati : federal funds rate cut

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十九）二手房屋銷售資料

2008-01-22T04:11:00.000-08:00

二手房屋銷售是反映美國房地產市道的資料，雖然其重要性要遜色於新屋動工和建造許可證這兩個資料，由於房地產在經濟活動的重要性實在太大，我們有必要全方位瞭解其動向。而次按對二手房屋市場及經濟的影響有多深，這個數字可以帶給我們更全面的圖畫。在2007年12月31日所發佈內容如下

Existing-home sales rose slightly in November, indicating a stabilization in housing in the wake of mortgage disruptions earlier this year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - rose 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.00 million units in November from an upwardly revised pace of 4.98 million in October, but are 20.0 percent below the 6.25 million-unit level in November 2006.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market appears to be stabilizing. "Near term, existing-home sales should continue to hover in a narrow range, just as they have since September, and that's good news because it'll be a further sign that the housing market is stabilizing," he said. "Mortgage interest rates are near historic lows and the most current data shows decelerating price declines, along with a modest reduction in the number of homes on the market." Disruptions in mortgage availability and pricing peaked in August, which caused sales to slow in subsequent months.

The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $210,200 in November, down 3.3 percent from November 2006 when the median was $217,300, but there remains a downward drag on the national median as the mix of closed sales has shifted away from expensive markets.

"Just like the weather, there are large local variations in home prices," Yun said. A quarterly examination of price performance on a metropolitan basis shows nearly two-thirds of metro areas are showing price increases. Among the many metros experiencing healthy local price gains are Farmington, N.M.; Reading, Pa.; Columbia, S.C., and Fargo, N.D.

Total housing inventory declined 3.6 percent at the end of November to 4.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.3-month supply3 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.7-month supply in October. "Inventory is still high, and further reduction in prices may be required in some areas to induce buyers back into the market," Yun said.

NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said that Congress should expand affordable financing. "Consumers have some choices with safer conventional financing, but raising the limit on conforming loans would significantly revive home sales," he said. "This would help creditworthy buyers in hard hit regions like California and Florida by greatly increasing access to low-interest-rate mortgages. NAR, as the leading advocate for homeownership, strongly urges lawmakers to act quickly on this important measure."

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.21 percent in November from 6.38 percent in October; the rate was 6.24 percent in November 2006.

Single-family home sales rose 0.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.40 million in November from 4.37 million in October, but are 19.9 percent below the 5.49 million-unit pace in November 2006. The median existing single-family home price was $208,700 in November, down 3.7 percent from a year earlier.

Existing condominium and co-op sales slipped 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 600,000 units in November from 610,000 in October, and are 20.6 percent below the 756,000-unit level in November 2006. The median existing condo price4 was $221,100, down 0.7 percent from in November 2006.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the West increased 10.3 percent in November to a level of 960,000, but are 25.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $325,800, which is 6.8 percent lower than November 2006.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual rate of 1.18 million in November, but are 16.9 percent below November 2006. The median price in the Midwest was $163,000, down 0.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South declined 2.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.99 million in November, and are 19.4 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $174,200, which is 2.5 percent below November 2006.

Existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 3.3 percent to an annual pace of 870,000 in November, and are 19.4 percent below November 2006. The median price in the Northeast was $258,300, down 3.2 percent from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

這份由全美房地產經紀人協會所提供的報告並非如標題所言二手銷售走向穩定。實情是所有銷售數字和去年同期相比有大約20%的下降，而售價和去年同期相比則有0.7%至3.7%的下跌。經紀人一般傾向唱好，但實情是市場萎縮，市價下滑。美國樓市正陷入冰河期。除非大幅减息超過0.75%，市場或者會走穩。

Technorati : 二手房屋銷售資料

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十八）新屋動工和建造許可證數字

2008-01-21T05:06:00.000-08:00

這個是美國房地產行業的一個重要的前瞻性指標。房地產行業無論在哪一個國家都顯得舉足輕重，房地產的繁榮也代表經濟的繁榮相信很少人會反對。房地產業也是經濟週期轉捩點的重要指標之一，往往是最早做出下跌和回升的反應。房地產的繁榮會產生"乘數效應"，對其他行業將產生強而有力的拉動效應，對就業和消費將產生直接的影響，反之亦然。

統計機構向全美19000個地區的建築商進行調查，向他們詢問當地的新開發住宅和登記在案的許可證專案。

新動工住宅是完全意義的新住宅，加建、改建和重建都不計算在內。同時，新動工住宅麼進行季節性調整，我們更應該注意的是3－4個月的平均數多於個別月份的資料。

NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN DECEMBER 2007

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for December 2007:

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,068,000. This is 8.1 percent (±1.7%) below the revised November rate of 1,162,000 and is 34.4 percent (±2.2%) below the revised December 2006 estimate of 1,628,000.

Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 692,000; this is 10.1 percent (±1.6%) below the November figure of
770,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 322,000 in December.

An estimated 1,376,100 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2007. This is 25.3 percent (±0.8%) below the 2006 figure of 1,838,900.

HOUSING STARTS

Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,006,000. This is 14.2 percent (±8.3%) below
the revised November estimate of 1,173,000 and is 38.2 percent (±4.9%) below the revised December 2006 rate of 1,629,000.

Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 794,000; this is 2.9 percent (±8.7)* below the November figure of 818,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 196,000. An estimated 1,353,700 housing units were started in 2007. This is 24.8 percent (±1.3%) below the 2006 figure of 1,800,900.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS

Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,302,000. This is 7.7 percent (±10.3%)* below the revised November estimate of 1,411,000 and is 31.0 percent (±5.8%) below the revised December 2006 rate of 1,887,000.

Single-family housing completions in December were at a rate of 1,009,000; this is 12.0 percent (±10.5%) below the November figure of 1,146,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 278,000.

An estimated 1,500,200 housing units were completed in 2007. This is 24.2 percent (±1.7%) below the 2006 figure of 1,979,400.

美國次按風暴對建築行業的影響觸目驚心，十二月的新屋建造許可證數字和上月相比下降8.1%，但和去年同期相比下降了34.4%。數字之差，可以為經濟的不振埋下伏筆。而新屋動工數字和上月上月相比下降14.2%，但和去年同期相比下降了38.2%。十二月的新屋完工數字和上月相比下降7.7%，但和去年同期相比下降了31%。可以確見美國樓市步入嚴冬，次按風暴越演越烈。這對環球金融市場的衝擊十分巨大，港股較大的調整在所難免。

Technorati : 新屋動工和建造許可證數字

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十七）個人收入和支出

2008-01-20T04:57:00.001-08:00

在美國，消費者的支出是銷售、進口、工廠產出、商業投資和就業增長的主要動力。個人的收入的兩個出路要麼就是消費、要麼就是儲蓄。消費可以推動經濟發展，儲蓄這個問題在美國已經不重要了，過去20年中美國人的儲蓄率是每況愈下。這個資料本身受到公佈時效性的影響而受重視程度較小。

個人收入包括工資和薪水（56％）、業主收入（8％）、租金收入（1.4％）、股票紅利（4.4％）、利息收入（11％）、轉移支付（13％）和其他（6.2％）。

個人支出主要用於：耐用品、非耐用品和服務。2007年11月數據如下:

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2007

BEA 07-61

PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS

NOVEMBER 2007

Personal income increased $43.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)
increased $32.9 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $110.6 billion, or 1.1 percent. In October,
personal income increased $24.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $17.0 billion, or 0.2 percent,
and PCE increased $39.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.

2007
July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
(Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3
Chained (2000) dollars 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.3
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.1
Chained (2000) dollars 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5

Wages and salaries

Private wage and salary disbursements increased $36.0 billion in November, in contrast to a
decrease of $1.3 billion in October. Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $6.2 billion, in
contrast to a decrease of $2.2 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $2.9 billion, in contrast to a
decrease of $1.2 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls increased $29.8 billion, compared
with an increase of $1.0 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $4.0 billion,
the same increase as in October.

Other personal income

Supplements to wages and salaries increased $6.0 billion in November, compared with an
increase of $4.4 billion in October.

Proprietors' income increased $7.2 billion in November, compared with an increase of $3.7
billion in October. Farm proprietors' income increased $0.5 billion, compared with an increase of
$0.6 billion. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $6.7 billion, compared with an increase of $3.1
billion.

Rental income of persons increased $1.9 billion in November, compared with an increase of
$2.2 billion in October. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal
dividend income) increased $2.5 billion, compared with an increase of $2.4 billion. Personal current
transfer receipts decreased $9.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $9.6 billion. The November
change reflects a decrease in Medicare part D prescription drug benefit payments; the reduction
reflects the annual reconciliation of estimated and actual prescription drug costs.

Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income --
increased $5.1 billion in November, compared with an increase of $0.2 billion in October.

Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

Personal current taxes increased $10.3 billion in November, compared with an increase of $7.8
billion in October. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes
-- increased $32.9 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November, compared with an increase of $17.0 billion,
or 0.2 percent, in October.

Personal outlays and personal saving

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments
increased $111.9 billion in November, compared with an increase of $41.0 billion in October. PCE
increased $110.6 billion, compared with an increase of $39.4 billion.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was a negative $48.4 billion in November, in
contrast to a positive $30.7 billion in October. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable
personal income was a negative 0.5 percent in November, in contrast to a positive 0.3 percent in
October. Negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income.
Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing
(including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or
other assets, or by using savings from previous periods. For more information, see the FAQs on
"Personal Saving" on BEA's Web site.

Real DPI and real PCE

Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.3 percent in November,
compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent in October.

Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.5 percent in November,
compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in October. Purchases of durable goods increased 0.6
percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent. Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.6
percent, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Purchases of services increased 0.5 percent,
compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent.

The price index for PCE increased 0.6 percent in November, compared with an increase of 0.3
percent in October; most of the November increase was accounted for by increases in energy prices.
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, the same increase as in
October.

Revisions

Estimates have been revised for July through October. Changes in personal income, current-
dollar and chained (2000) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (2000) dollar PCE for
September and October -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

Change from preceding month

September October
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Personal Income:
Current dollars...................... 50.4 53.7 0.4 0.5 21.2 24.8 0.2 0.2
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars...................... 43.2 46.6 0.4 0.5 14.0 17.0 0.1 0.2
Chained (2000) dollars............... 13.3 14.9 0.2 0.2 -12.4 -13.2 -0.1 -0.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars...................... 33.0 48.9 0.3 0.5 23.8 39.4 0.2 0.4
Chained (2000) dollars............... 5.7 18.0 0.1 0.2 -2.9 7.0 0.0 0.1

BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By
visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and
announcements.

* * *

Next release -- January 31, 2008, at 8:30 A.M. EST for Personal Income and Outlays for December

Release dates in 2008

December 2007... January 31 April 2008... May 30 August 2008... September 29
January 2008... February 29 May 2008... June 27 September 2008... October 31
February 2008... March 28 June 2008... August 4 October 2008... November 26
March 2008... May 1 July 2008... August 29 November 2008... December 24

11月的數據十分正面，星期一會有12月的數據，到時再和大家分享。

Technorati : 個人收入和支出

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十六）國內生產總值（GDP）

2008-01-19T05:37:00.001-08:00

反映整體的經濟走向，統計的規模最大也最全面。但是由於是每季度後才公佈，所以時效性和前瞻性欠奉，但是可以視作是對前一季度國民經濟活動的總結。

美國2007年第三季GDP數字在2007年12好20日公佈：

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2007, according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the preliminary estimates issued last month. In the preliminary estimates, the increase in real GDP was also 4.9 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, nonresidential structures, federal government spending, equipment and software, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports,
which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in exports, in PCE, and in private inventory investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a larger decrease in residential fixed investment, and a deceleration in nonresidential structures.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.28 percentage point to the third-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.21 percentage point to the second-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output contributed 0.36 percentage point to the third-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.03 percentage point to
the second-quarter growth.

FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2000)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.

This news release is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, 0.2 percentage point more than the preliminary estimate; this index increased 3.8 percent in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for
gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the second.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the second. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 9.3 percent, compared with an increase of 11.0 percent. Nonresidential structures increased 16.4 percent, compared
with an increase of 26.2 percent. Equipment and software increased 6.2 percent, compared with an increase of 4.7 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 20.5 percent, compared with a decrease of 11.8 percent.

Real exports of goods and services increased 19.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 7.5 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 4.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 2.7 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 6.0 percent in the second. National defense increased 10.1 percent, compared with an increase of 8.5 percent. Nondefense increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent.

The real change in private inventories added 0.89 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.22 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $30.6 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $5.8 billion in the second quarter and $0.1 billion in the first.

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 4.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in the second.

Gross domestic purchases

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second.

Gross national product

Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 5.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent in the second. GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world,
which increased $25.9 billion in the third quarter after increasing $5.8 billion in the second; in the third quarter, receipts increased $32.0 billion, and payments increased $6.1 billion.

Current-dollar GDP

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 6.0 percent, or $201.7 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $13,970.5 billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 6.6 percent, or $216.9 billion.

RevisionsThe final estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is the same as the preliminary estimate, primarily reflecting a small upward revision to personal consumption expenditures that was offset by a small downward revision to private nonfarm inventory investment.

Advance Preliminary Final

(Percent change from preceding quarter)

Real GDP............................... 3.9 4.9 4.9

Current-dollar GDP..................... 4.7 5.9 6.0

Gross domestic purchases price index... 1.6 1.6 1.8

Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $20.5 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $94.7 billion in the second quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- decreased $21.1 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $37.4 billion in the second.

Taxes on corporate income decreased $20.7 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $37.6 billion in the second. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased $0.3 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $57.0 billion in the
second. Dividends increased $23.5 billion, compared with an increase of $24.8 billion; current- production undistributed profits decreased $23.3 billion, in contrast to an increase of $32.2 billion.Domestic profits of financial corporations decreased $32.5 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $52.7 billion in the second. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations decreased $14.4 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $25.3 billion in the second. In the third quarter, real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased, and profits per unit of real product decreased. The decrease in unit profits reflected a decrease in unit prices and an increase in unit labor costs that were partly offset by a decrease in unit nonlabor costs.

The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $26.4 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $16.7 billion in the second. This measure is calculated as (1) receipts by U.S. residents of earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S. residents from unaffiliated foreign corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to their foreign parents plus dividends paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The third-quarter increase was accounted for by a larger increase in receipts than in payments.Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment is the best available measure of industry
profits because estimates of the capital consumption adjustment by industry do not exist. This measure reflects depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax returns. According to this measure, domestic profits of financial and nonfinancial corporations decreased in the third quarter. The decrease in nonfinancial corporations reflected a decrease in manufacturing that was partly offset by increases in all the other industries shown. Within manufacturing, the decrease was more than accounted for by petroleum.

Profits before tax decreased $51.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $115.7 billion in the second. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from current production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments convert
depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital consumption adjustment decreased $3.0 billion in the third quarter (from -$234.4 billion to -$237.4 billion), compared with a decrease of $6.5 billion in the second. The inventory valuation adjustment increased $34.4
billion (from -$54.7 billion to -$20.3 billion), in contrast to a decrease of $14.5 billion.

第三季美國GDP還見4.9%的大幅增長，要密切注意第四季的數字。但生產利潤、公司現金流和財務公司的利益由第二季的增長逆轉為第三季的下跌，數據令市場憂心忡忡。

Technorati : GDP, 國內生產總值

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十五）國際貿易

2008-01-18T03:44:00.001-08:00

一個非常重大的經濟資料，由於統計的工作量太大而使其公佈日期沒有時效性。但是貿易赤字是美國經濟每日都面對的問題，國際貿易資料反映了美國國內需求，同時也給美元的匯率帶來影響，當然大家最關心的是美國怎麼去發債填補這個缺口，全球的資金流動也可能因相應的措施而有所變化。這個資料實際上對股市的影響並不算大。

有關數據於2008年1月11日發表：

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total November exports of $142.3 billion and imports of $205.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $63.1 billion, up from $57.8 billion in October, revised. November exports were $0.6 billion more than October exports of $141.7 billion. November imports were $6.0 billion more than October imports of $199.4 billion. In November, the goods deficit increased $5.8 billion from October to $72.7 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.4 billion to $9.6 billion. Exports of goods increased $0.1 billion to $101.0 billion, and imports of goods increased $5.9 billion to $173.7 billion. Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $41.4 billion, and imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $31.8 billion.In November, the goods and services deficit was up $4.7 billion from November 2006. Exports were up $16.4 billion, or 13.0 percent, and imports were up $21.1 billion, or 11.4 percent.

Goods

The October to November change in exports of goods reflected increases in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.5 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.4 billion); other goods ($0.4 billion); and industrial supplies and materials ($0.2 billion). Decreases occurred in capital goods ($0.9 billion) and consumer goods ($0.1 billion). The October to November change in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($4.7 billion); consumer goods ($0.8 billion); other goods ($0.3 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.2 billion); capital goods ($0.2 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.1 billion).The November 2006 to November 2007 change in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($4.0 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($2.5 billion); capital goods ($2.2 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.8 billion); consumer goods ($1.0 billion); and other goods ($0.5 billion).

The November 2006 to November 2007 change in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($12.2 billion); capital goods ($2.1 billion); consumer goods ($1.9 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.2 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.7 billion); and other goods ($0.4 billion).

Services

Services exports increased $0.5 billion from October to November. The increase was mostly accounted for by increases in transfers under U.S. military sales contracts, other transportation, which includes freight and port services, and travel. Changes in other categories of services exports were small.Services imports increased $0.1 billion from October to November. The increase was mostly accounted for by an increase in other private services, which includes items such as business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, and financial services. Changes in other categories of services imports were small.

From November 2006 to November 2007, services exports increased $4.2 billion. The largest increases were in travel ($1.6 billion) and other private services ($1.1 billion).From November 2006 to November 2007, services imports increased $2.4 billion. The largest increases were in other private services ($1.1 billion) and travel ($0.5 billion).

Goods and Services Moving Average

For the three months ending in November, exports of goods and services averaged $141.5 billion, while imports of goods and services averaged $200.8 billion, resulting in an average trade deficit of $59.3 billion. For the three months ending in October, the average trade deficit was $57.3 billion, reflecting average exports of $140.5 billion and average imports of $197.7 billion.

Selected Not Seasonally Adjusted Goods Details

The November figures showed surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Australia $1.0 ($0.9 for October), Hong Kong $1.0 ($1.3), Singapore $0.6 ($0.7), and Egypt $0.3 ($0.5). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China $24.0 ($25.9), Europe $12.0 ($13.7), OPEC $11.8 ($11.0), the European Union $10.4 ($11.9), Mexico $7.6 ($7.5), Japan $7.1 ($8.0), Canada $4.7 ($5.4), Taiwan $1.3 ($1.4), and Korea $1.2 (0.8).Advanced technology products (ATP) exports were $23.6 billion in November and imports were $30.0 billion, resulting in a deficit of $6.4 billion. November exports were $1.6 billion less than the $25.2 billion in October, while imports were $1.9 billion less than the $31.8 billion in October.

Revisions

Goods carry-over in November was $0.3 billion (0.3 percent) for exports and $1.3 billion (0.7 percent) for imports. For October, revised export carry-over was $0.1 billion (0.1 percent), revised down from $0.4 billion (0.3 percent). For October, revised import carry-over was $0.5 billion (0.3 percent), revised down from $1.5 billion (0.8 percent).

Services exports for October were revised up $0.2 billion to $40.8 billion. The revision was mostly accounted for by an upward revision in travel. Services imports for October were virtually unrevised at $31.7 billion.

Technorati : 國際貿易

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十四）工業產值和設備利用率

2008-01-17T04:43:00.000-08:00

這是聯儲局兩個非常重要的兩個經濟指標，於同時公佈且相關性強。工業產值儘管只占美國總體經濟的20％，但是工業產值對經濟週期卻非常敏感，所以這是測試經濟走勢的重要指標之一。設備利用率反映的生產設備的使用情況，對通貨膨脹有較好的預測作用，如果設備利用率高於85％的話，通脹壓力就開始形成，而聯儲局將緊盯這個指標作為利率調整的重要依據之一。

工業產值覆蓋了幾乎整個美國的有形產品，而美聯儲每月都搜尋295個工業部門的資料進行匯總，但是由於要在月份結束候兩周發表初步報告，資料只建立在所需資料的55％的基礎之上。

設備利用率是以85個工業部門的設備利用率為計算的基礎，包括67個製造業、16個採掘業和2個公共事業。

工業生產值測量的是產品數量的變化，不考慮產品價格。

最新資料在2008年1月16日由聯儲局發表：

Industrial production was unchanged in December; the change in the index over the previous three months was little revised, with offsetting revisions to September and October. For the fourth quarter, output fell 1.0 percent (annual rate), the first quarterly decrease since the fourth quarter of 2006. At 114.0 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production in December was 1.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Output in the manufacturing sector was unchanged in December. The output of utilities decreased 0.2 percent in December as a result of a decline at gas utilities; the output at mines edged up 0.1 percent after an increase of 1.0 percent in November. Capacity utilization for total industry posted a small decrease in December, to 81.4 percent, a rate slightly below its year-earlier level but 0.4 percentage point above its 1972-2006 average.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY

Seasonally adjusted

Industrial production 2002=100 Percent change

2007 2007 Dec. '06 to

Dec. '07

Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Total index 114.2 113.7 114.0 114.0 .1 -.5 .3 .0 1.5

Previous estimates 114.4 113.6 113.9 .3 -.7 .3

Major market groups

Final Products 115.2 114.3 114.6 114.9 .2 -.8 .3 .3 1.2

Consumer goods 109.5 108.6 108.7 108.8 .0 -.8 .1 .1 .9

Business equipment 134.2 133.3 134.1 135.3 .8 -.7 .7 .8 2.4

Nonindustrial supplies 111.5 111.0 110.8 110.5 .2 -.4 -.2 -.3 .3

Construction 109.3 108.6 108.3 107.3 -.2 -.7 -.2 -.9 -2.2

Materials 114.3 114.1 114.6 114.3 .0 -.2 .5 -.3 2.3

Major industry groups

Manufacturing (see note below) 116.1 115.4 115.7 115.7 .2 -.6 .3 .0 1.1

Previous estimates 116.1 115.3 115.8 .2 -.6 .4

Mining 101.7 101.6 102.6 102.7 1.2 .0 1.0 .1 .2

Utilities 109.7 109.8 109.8 109.6 -1.6 .0 .0 -.2 6.9

Capacity utilization

Percent of capacity Capacity

growth

Dec. '06 to

Dec. '07

Average

1972-2006 1994-95

High 2001-02

Low 2006

Dec. 2007

Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Total industry 81.0 85.1 73.6 81.6 81.9 81.4 81.6 81.4 1.8

Previous estimates 82.1 81.4 81.5

Manufacturing (see note below) 79.8 84.6 71.6 80.5 80.4 79.8 79.8 79.7 2.1

Previous estimates 80.4 79.7 79.9

Mining 87.4 88.9 84.8 92.3 91.2 91.2 92.1 92.1 .4

Utilities 86.7 93.7 83.8 81.8 86.6 86.6 86.5 86.2 1.4

Stage-of-process groups

Crude 86.5 89.5 82.0 89.6 90.0 89.4 90.6 90.3 .5

Primary and semifinished 82.2 88.2 74.6 81.7 82.6 82.0 82.1 81.7 2.2

Finished 77.8 80.5 70.0 79.0 78.6 78.2 78.0 78.3 1.9

Market Groups

The output of consumer goods edged up 0.1 percent in December, as nondurables advanced slightly but durables decreased. Among durable consumer goods, the production index for automotive products moved up 0.2 percent after having risen 1.4 percent in November. Elsewhere the production index for home electronics edged down 0.2 percent, and the production index for appliances, furniture, and carpeting moved down 1.6 percent with widespread decreases among its components. After having decreased for two consecutive months, the production of nondurable non-energy consumer goods advanced 0.5 percent in December with gains in foods and tobacco, paper, and clothing, and a small loss in chemical products. After having increased a revised 1.8 percent in November, the index for consumer energy goods fell 1.0 percent in December.

The index for business equipment moved up 0.8 percent in December and advanced at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter. In December, the output of transit equipment rose 2.3 percent; the gain was concentrated in commercial aircraft. After having risen 2.1 percent in November, the index for information processing equipment increased 0.5 percent in December; despite moderate gains in most components, December's rise in this index was held down by a drop in the output of communications equipment. The index for industrial and other equipment moved up 0.4 percent; output for this sector fell at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

The output of defense and space equipment advanced 0.1 percent in December and was unchanged from its year-earlier level.

In December, the index for construction supplies fell 0.9 percent, its sixth consecutive monthly decline; the index was 2.2 percent below its year-earlier level and declined at an annual rate of 5.4 percent for the fourth quarter as a whole. The index for business supplies was unchanged in December.

The production of materials decreased 0.3 percent in December, which partially reversed its November increase. Among non-energy materials, the index for durable materials decreased 0.4 percent in December. A gain in equipment parts was outweighed by decreases in consumer parts and other durable materials; losses were widespread within these categories. The output of nondurable materials moved down 0.4 percent, with declines in all of its major subcategories.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output was unchanged in December after having increased 0.3 percent in November; manufacturing fell at an annual rate of 1.9 percent for the fourth quarter as a whole. The factory operating rate decreased 0.1 percentage point, to 79.7 percent, a level 0.1 percentage point below its 1972-2006 average. The production of durable goods was unchanged in December and declined at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter. The output of wood products increased 1.1 percent in December after having declined for five consecutive months. Machinery, computer and electronic products, and aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment all posted gains, whereas nonmetallic mineral products and primary metal production posted declines of 2.1 percent and 1.0 percent respectively. The production of nondurable goods edged down 0.1 percent after a gain of similar size in November. Gains in the indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products and for apparel and leather in December were more than offset by reductions in most other categories. The output of non-NAICS industries (newspaper publishing and logging) edged up 0.1 percent.

The output of mines increased 0.1 percent, and the capacity utilization rate for mining was unchanged at 92.1 percent, a rate 4.7 percentage points above its long-run average. The index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent in December. The output of natural gas utilities fell 3.1 percent, and the output of electric utilities edged up 0.3 percent. The operating rate at utilities decreased 0.3 percentage point, to 86.2 percent, a level 0.5 percentage point below its 1972-2006 average.

Capacity utilization at industries grouped by stage of processing changed as follows: For the crude stage, utilization decreased 0.3 percentage point, to 90.3 percent, a rate 3.8 percentage points above its 1972-2006 average. For the primary and semifinished stages, utilization decreased 0.4 percentage point, to 81.7 percent, a rate 0.5 percentage point below its long-run average. For the finished stage, utilization moved up 0.3 percentage point, to 78.3 percent, a rate 0.5 percentage point above its long-run average.

Notice

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue an annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization around the end of March 2008. The revised IP indexes will incorporate data from the 2006 Annual Surveys of Manufactures and data from selected editions of the 2006 Current Industrial Reports, all from the U.S. Census Bureau. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2006 will also be incorporated. The updating will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry as well as changes in the estimation methods for some series. Any changes to methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.

After the publication of the revision, later monthly releases will include new or revised indexes for a six-month reporting window: one month of new data and revisions to the previous five months of data. The new longer reporting window will allow the incorporation of additional lagging data before an annual revision. The longer reporting window will cause the latest month of data shown for a few indexes to be as many as five months earlier than the latest value for aggregate industrial production; data for detailed production indexes are not shown in the supplement to the G.17 until either the underlying data are available or the reporting window is closed. Currently, the data issued for only one or two of the published indexes would be affected by this change.

Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data from the Census Bureau's 2006 Survey of Plant Capacity, which covers manufacturing, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy, and other organizations.

Once the revision is published, it will be available on the Board's website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data will also be available through the website of the Department of Commerce. Further information on these revisions can be obtained from the Board's Industrial Output Section (telephone number 202-452-3197).

Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.

從以上數據所見，美國通漲壓力大，為聯儲進一步减息大開綠燈。資訊科技設備有所上升，但通訊設備回落。對提供軟硬件的公司可看高一線。微軟(4338)的股票值得考慮。建築業連續六個月下跌，個人看好電動工具股創科(669)和旺城(2389)。而傢俬股如卡森(496)、順誠(531)、達藝(997)和照明股瑩輝(1163)應看低一線。木材制品在連續五個月下跌後有回升，三林(3938)表現可能持續令人失望。金屬制品的下跌預視賤金屬及礦藏股可能有下跌之勢。

Technorati : 工業產值和設備利用率

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十三）領先經濟指標

2008-01-16T05:59:00.001-08:00

這是個由10個具有前瞻性的經濟指標匯總而成的指標。對未來3－9個月的宏觀經濟走向勾畫出一幅圖畫，儘管不太清晰，但是由於是描述總體經濟的概況，所以仍然受到市場的尊重。

10個指標分別是：（1）製造業平均每週工作時數(19.7%），（2）平均每週首次申領失業救濟人數（2.5%），（3）製造商消費品和原材料新增訂單（5.9％），（4）供應商表現或交貨期指數（2.9％），（5）製造商非國防資本品新增訂單（1.5％），（6）私人住房建造許可證（2％），（7）密歇根大學消費者預期指數（1.9%），（8）S&P500股票指數的股票價格（2.9％），（9）經調整後的M2貨幣供應量（27.7％），（10）10年期國庫券和聯邦基金利率之間的利差（33％）。這些指標不少是本文提及的指標中的分指標。

儘管本指標冠名為領先經濟指標，但是是居於收集其他指標後匯總而成，時效性實在不敢恭維，所以市場敏感度只能是中等。

最新領先經濟指標於2007年12月20日發表，原文如下：

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in November.

The leading index decreased sharply for the second consecutive month in November, and it has been down in four of the last six months. Most of the leading indicators contributed negatively to the index in November, led by large declines in stock prices, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), the index of consumer expectations, and real money supply (M2)*. The vendor performance diffusion index and average workweek were the primary positive contributors to the index this month. The leading index fell 1.2 percent (a decline of 2.3 percent annual rate) from May to November, the largest six-month decrease in the index in six years. However, despite continued weakness in the housing permits and interest rate spread components, the strengths among its components remained balanced with the weaknesses during the past six months.

The coincident index increased modestly in November, and all the component indicators made positive contributions to the index for this month. The index was revised slightly lower in September and October, as a result of downward data revisions to the components. The coincident index increased 0.8 percent (a 1.6 percent annual rate) from May to November and the strengths among the coincident indicators remained very widespread. The lagging index increased again in November, matching the increase in the coincident index for the month, and as a result, the coincident to lagging ratio was unchanged for November.

After having been essentially flat since early 2006, the leading index has weakened sharply in recent months, and it has declined to its lowest level since the middle of 2005. Meanwhile, the coincident index has continued to increase throughout most of this period, but its growth has moderated recently. In addition, real GDP has continued to expand, growing at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent through the third quarter of the year (including a 4.9 percent annual rate growth in the third quarter). The recent behavior of the composite indexes suggest that while slow economic growth is likely in the near term, risks for further economic weakness have increased.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were vendor performance, average weekly manufacturing hours, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor - were stock prices, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), index of consumer expectations, real money supply*, building permits, interest rate spread, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials*.

The leading index now stands at 136.3 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.5 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index decreased 1.2 percent, with five out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four of the indicators that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were personal income less transfer payments*, industrial production, employees on nonagricultural payrolls and manufacturing and trade sales*.

The coincident index now stands at 125.1 (1996=100). This index decreased 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident index increased 0.8 percent.

LAGGING INDICATORS. The lagging index stands at 130.2 (1996=100) in November, with four of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were change in CPI for services, commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, change in labor cost per unit of output*, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor - were the average prime rate charged by banks and average duration of unemployment (inverted). The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales** held steady in November. Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in October and increased 0.5 percent in September.

DATA AVAILABILITY AND NOTES. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the three composite indexes and reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 12 Noon on January 19, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.

* Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and the personal consumption expenditure used to deflate the money supply. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales. Series in the lagging index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventories to sales ratio, consumer installment credit to income ratio, change in labor cost per unit of output, the consumer price index, and the personal consumption expenditure used to deflate commercial and industrial loans outstanding.

The procedure used to estimate the current month's personal consumption expenditure deflator (used in the calculation of real money supply and commercial and industrial loans outstanding) now incorporates the current month's consumer price index when it is available before the release of the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators.

Effective with the September 18, 2003 release, the method for calculating manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials (A0M008) and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods (A0M027) has been revised. Both series are now constructed by deflating nominal aggregate new orders data instead of aggregating deflated industry level new orders data. Both the new and the old methods utilize appropriate producer price indices. This simplification remedies several issues raised by the recent conversion of industry data to the North American Classification System (NAICS), as well as several other issues, e.g. the treatment of semiconductor orders. While this simplification caused a slight shift in the levels of both new orders series, the growth rates were essentially the same. As a result, this simplification had no significant effect on the leading index.

The next release is scheduled for Friday, January 18 at 10:00 AM ET.

從以上資料所見，美國經濟步向衰退的風險以日俱增。它對環球投資市場的衝擊，正不斷發酵。

Technorati : 領先經濟指標

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十二）EIA 石油儲存報告

2008-01-15T02:48:00.001-08:00

美國能源資訊署（EIA）每週提供有關美國的石油產品的儲存報告，石油作為一項最為重要的商品，近年來對世界經濟的影響力越來越大，其意義已經超過經濟本身。石油產品存貨如果減少，導致石油價格上升，意味著經濟活動可能會受到負面影響，同時也引起投資者對通脹和利率上升的憂慮。

主要是針對原油、汽油和蒸餾油三個主要品種進行統計。最新報告於2008年1月4日發表。內容有六十多頁，對有興趣進行石油產品期貨賣買者十分有用。

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.8 million barrels per day during the week ending January 4, up 389,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 91.3 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production moved higher compared to the previous week, averaging 9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production rose last week, averaging nearly 4.5 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.8 million barrels per day last week, down 203,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 9.7 million barrels per day, or 60,000 barrels per day more than averaged over the same four-week period last year.

Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 131,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 6.8 million barrels compared to the previous week. At 282.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 5.3 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels, and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene
inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 8.1 million barrels
last week, and are in the bottom half of the average range for this
time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 21.3 million barrels per day, up by 2.6 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million barrels per day, or 0.4 percent above the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged nearly 4.5 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 4.9 percent compared to the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 3.1 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.The average world crude oil price on January 4, 2008 was $92.93, $3.17 more than last week's price and $38.30 above a year ago.

WTI was $97.90 per barrel on January 4, 2008, $1.87 more than last week's price and $41.61 more than a year ago. The spot price for
conventional gasoline in the New York Harbor was 247.10 cents per gallon, down 0.15 cent from last week's price but 100.17 cents over a year ago. The spot price for No. 2 heating oil in the New York Harbor was 268.30 cents per gallon, 3.95 cents more than last week's price and 116.02 cents above a year ago.

The national average retail regular gasoline price increased to 310.9 cents per gallon on January 7, 2008, 5.6 cents per gallon more than last week and 80.3 cents over a year ago. The national average
retail diesel fuel price increased to 337.6 cents per gallon, 3.1 cents per gallon above last week and 83.9 cents more than a year ago.

Technorati : EIA石油儲存報告

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十一）消費者情緒調查

2008-01-14T04:30:00.000-08:00

消費者情緒調查由於時效性較佳，這個指標被認為是領先的經濟指標之一，且歷史較長，在市場上的作用應該可以說更大一些。

受調查人士有500個，被問及有關當前和未來的個人財務狀況與昂貴品採購計畫的50個問題。

調查是基於對於個人收入的預期，預期的時間為1－5年，調查結果分為初值和終值。結果預示了消費者是否有用錢的意願。

2007年12月路透密芝根大學消費者情緒調查全文如下：

The decline in consumer confidence came to a near stand-still in December; that's the good news. The bad news is that confidence remained at a two year low. "It is too soon to interpret the stabilization of confidence as a signal that conditions are about to improve," according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Consumers still express the same concerns about the high cost of fuel, food, and utilities as well as a diminished sense of financial security caused by falling home prices.

Although the data does not yet signal an impending recession, it does indicate that the pace of growth in consumer spending will nearly come to a halt in the upcoming months. "The consumer confidence data indicate that personal consumption spending will grow by 2.0% in 2008 over 2007, with the pace of growth starting from a low of about 1.0% in the 1st quarter and then rising in the balance of the year," Curtin said. The risk that a recession develops is uncomfortably high, however. "Robust job and wage growth will be critical to offset the negative impact of higher inflation and falling home values," according to Curtin.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment was 75.5 in the December 2007 survey, barely below the 76.1 in November, but significantly below the 91.7 recorded in December of 2006. The Index of Consumer Expectations, a closely watched component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, was 65.6 in the December 2007 survey, just below the 66.2 in November, but well below the 81.2 recorded last December. The Current Economic Conditions Index was 91.0 in the December 2007 survey, slightly below the 91.5 in November, but significantly below the 108.1 recorded last December.

The November and December surveys have recorded the largest gap in more than a quarter century in how
different income groups assessed their financial situation. The record gap was due to both the impact of rising prices
as well as the frequency of income increases. The devastating impact of high fuel, food, and utility prices on the
budgets of households in the lowest third of the income distribution meant that fully half of these households reported a worsening financial situation. In contrast, among the top third of the income distribution, widespread income gains have meant that half of those in the upper income tier reported being better off financially.

More homeowners reported that their home had lost value in the December survey than any other time in the
two decades the question has been asked. In the December 2007 survey, 31% of all homeowners reported the value of their home had declined, up from a low of just 3% two years ago and above the 1992 peak of 24%. When asked about prospects for the year ahead, nearly one-in-four home owners expected price declines. The declines were
largest in the West and Northeast, and owners of highest valued homes reported the largest percentage declines.

Vehicle buying plans were at the lowest level since the recession in the early 1990's. "Although some of the
declines reflected uncertainty about future gas prices and the future course of the economy, most of the decline can be attributed to what consumers view as less attractive discounts offered by manufacturers," Curtin said. Fewer consumers mentioned the availability of discounts on prices and interest rates than since just before the start of the
2001 recession. There is no doubt that consumers will test the will of manufacturers to avoid deeply discounting vehicles in the months ahead.

美國消費者信心指數再次揭示美國經濟疲弱堪，欲振乏力。

Technorati : 消費者情緒調查

讀Yale還是唸Stanford -兩個免費的大學網上宗教課程

2008-01-12T03:44:00.001-08:00

現在有很多美國知名的大學，都將課程內容原汁原味地擺到互聯網上供有心人免費自修。修讀者除了不能獲取學分，一樣可以享受一流的大學教授出色的授課。有心者甚至可以按指示完成閱讀習作、功課和考試。你的習作和考試當然不會獲得有關教授的批改。不過如果真的遇上不明白的地方，妨可以用電郵向有關的學者請教。雖然一定會收到答覆，但是如果你問的是好問題，熱心於學術的教授一定會不吝賜教。我個人經驗，向一位美國太空總署的科學家請教他發表的文章中的一些問題，在短於三小時內就收到他的電郵回覆。

這次有大家介紹的第一個課程是耶魯大學(Yale University)的『舊約簡介 Introduction to the Old Testament (Hebrew Bible)』。課程由海耶教授(Professor Hayes)講授。舊約聖經是古代以色列民族宗教及思想的記載，也是西方文明的基礎。海耶教授會教導大家用多種學術方法去研讀及詮釋舊約。課程會注重古代近東的歷史及文化對舊約聖經的影響。課程除每節影像內容外，還包括課程內容的文字本、功課和考試。約克大學的網上課程雖起步較遲，但內容及形式上則較優勝。

推介的第二個課程是史丹福大學(Stanford University )的『歷史中的耶穌 Historical Jesus』。課程需用萍果的iTunes收聽，這個課程用歷史學的方法及角度去看耶穌。並且找出歷史角度和信仰角度中的分別。課程由唐盛教授(Professor Tom Sheehan)主講。課程只提供聲音檔。但教授的講解十分精彩。如果你擁有iPod更可以下載於平時聆聽。

兩個課程並非神學課程而是大學的宗教課程，基督徒的弟兄姐妹未必接受其中的所有論點及見解。對於一個勇於獨立地批判性思考的人，這兩個課程可以令我們更全面認識舊約及認識歷史中的基督。願愛我們主祝福大家，靈命長進。

Technorati : 網上宗教課程，舊約，耶穌

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十）消費者信心指數

2008-01-11T05:34:00.001-08:00

消費支出占了經濟總體需求的一半以上，所以無論是政府決策部門、經濟學家和投資者等都會高度關注消費者的心態變化。

基於對美國5000個家庭的調查，然後編制成3個主要指標，並進行季節性調整，這三個指標分別代表信心、期望和現狀。

關於消費者信心調查的指數主要有三個，而每個調查都有其局限性和可取性，相對于以下消費者情緒調查，本指數更注重的是家庭對勞動市場的反應。

在2007年12月27日發佈的消費者信心指數如下

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had been declining since the summer, posted a slight increase in December. The Index now stands at 88.6 (1985=100), up from 87.8 in November. The Present Situation Index, however, decreased to 108.3 from 115.7 in November. The Expectations Index rose to 75.5 from 69.1.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "This month's slight gain in Confidence was due solely to an increase in the Expectations Index. Consumers' short-term outlook regarding business conditions, employment, inflation and stock prices improved marginally. However, while consumers are less negative about the near-term future, they remain far from optimistic. Furthermore, persistent declines in the Present Situation Index indicate the economy is still losing momentum. In fact, in assessing the current job market, pessimists now outnumber optimists. Regarding business conditions, the gap between the two is almost nonexistent."

Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions continues to paint a dismal picture. Those claiming conditions are "good" decreased to 20.3 percent from 22.5 percent. Those saying conditions are "bad" increased to 20.0 percent from 18.9 percent. Consumers' assessment of the job market was also less positive. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 23.5 percent from 21.4 percent, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" declined to 22.7 percent from 23.3 percent in November.

Consumers' short-term expectations, while reversing a four-month slide, remain at levels that bear watching. Those expecting business conditions to worsen in the next six months decreased to 14.1 percent from 16.6 percent. Those anticipating business conditions to improve increased to 13.8 percent from 12.4 percent.

The outlook for the labor market was also less pessimistic. The percent of consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead inched up to 11.2 percent from 10.6 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs edged down to 19.9 percent from 22.8 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase in the months ahead decreased to 19.0 percent from 19.4 percent.

消費者信心指數由8月下跌至11月，12月的輕微上升並說明劣勢已轉，因此對美國經濟持審慎而樂觀的態度。

Technorati : 消費者信心指數

美國重要經濟資料解讀（九）零售銷售額

2008-01-10T04:01:00.001-08:00

消費者支出構成了全部經濟活動的70％，而零售銷售額占了其中的1/3。所以這個數字的重要性不言而喻，但是它並沒有反映服務方面的支出，只是反映了有形商品方面的支出。

總共對13000家零售商進行調查。

零售額第一次公佈的資料都是不太穩定，經常要作出較大幅度的修正。

從圖中所見連同食品的零售銷售額的按年升幅開始放緩，市傳美國繼減息之後會減稅支持經濟。在大選年，政府用盡行政措施去救次按和經濟並不令人託異。

Technorati : 零售銷售額

美國重要經濟資料解讀（八）耐用品訂單

2008-01-09T04:44:00.000-08:00

是一個反映未來經濟活動的經濟指標，當耐用品訂單數量上升時，一般會被投資市場視作一個利好的信號，反之亦然。耐用品訂單由於使用壽命是 3 年以上的產品，其訂單增加反映的是人們對未來經濟的看好，耐用品是企業投資支出的重要組成部分，耐用品需求量增加也代表著投資支出的增加，也意味就業和消費的進一步改善。

資料代表著 89 個工業類別的 3500 家廠商。

最大的缺點是數位起伏大，所以參考時要考慮剔除國防和飛機這些大單的影響。1月3日公佈的2007年耐用品訂單如下：

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down four consecutive months, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $214.1 billion, revised from the previously published 0.1 percent increase. This followed a 0.5 percent October decrease.

耐用品定單連續四個月下跌，雖然美國政府大力唱好美國經濟，有閱讀本Blog的讀者，相信由各種數據中，見到美國經濟衰退的陰影揮之不去。聯儲在本月再減息的機會也大大增加。美股的表現依然不大樂觀。

Technorati : 耐用品訂單

美國重要經濟資料解讀（七）每週失業救濟申請人數

2008-01-08T03:57:00.001-08:00

這個指標同樣是市場上最矚目的經濟指標之一。因為就業是涉及到未來的經濟發展動力，所以這個是一個前瞻性的指標。目前美國是個完全消費型的社會，消費意欲是經濟的最大動力所在，如果每週都有不少美國人丟掉工作的話而申請失業救濟的話，會嚴重抑制消費信心。而由於資料每週都公佈，是投資市場的焦點所在，失業人數的大幅增加，美國政府的財政壓力也就隨之增大，對於得了"雙赤絕症"的美國經濟來說也是一個考驗，所以政府也會採取相應政策來刺激經濟的動力。

這裏要注意的是申請人分為兩類，第一類是首次申請，第二類是持續申請。同時由於資料每週公佈，有時候受到一些特殊的因素影響，如該周的工作日不足五天等等。所以除了每週數字外，還會公佈的是四周的移動平均數，以減少數位的波動性。

美國勞工部在1月3日發出的報告如下：

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Dec. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 336,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 343,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 344,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending Dec. 22, an increase of 0.1 percentage point the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 22 was 2,761,000, an increase of 46,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,715,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,687,000, an increase of 42,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,645,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 510,652 in the week ending Dec. 29, an increase of 54,681 from the previous week. There were 499,979 initial claims in the comparable week in 2006.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent during the week ending Dec. 22, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,819,269, an increase of 3,918 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.0 percent and the volume was 2,654,693.

Extended benefits were not available in any state during the week ending Dec. 15.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,915 in the week ending Dec. 22, an increase of 167 from the prior week. There were 1,491 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 5 from the preceding week.

There were 16,760 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Dec. 15, a decrease of 1,207 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 24,057, a decrease of 484 from the prior week.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Dec. 15 were in Alaska (4.3 percent), Michigan (3.6), Pennsylvania (3.3), Rhode Island (3.1), Wisconsin (3.0), California (2.9), New Jersey (2.9), Oregon (2.9), Idaho (2.8), Arkansas (2.7), Massachusetts (2.7), and Puerto Rico (2.7).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Dec. 22 were in Michigan (+12,084), California (+6,345), Indiana (+4,754), Texas (+4,388), and Pennsylvania (+4,264), while the largest decreases were in Illinois (-1,819), New York (-1,139), Colorado (-1,075), Florida (-989), and North Carolina (-839).

UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 12/22/2007

根據以上資料，首次申請失業救濟人數並沒有惡化。但持續申請失業救濟人數有輕微增加。

Technorati : 每週失業救濟申請人數

美國重要經濟資料解讀（六）就業形勢分析

2008-01-07T22:39:00.000-08:00

工人的工資是家庭的主要收入，就業的人越多，工資的增長都是推動消費的主要因素，而美國的經濟增長動力源於此，就業資料疲弱意味著美國經濟疲弱。因此，經濟指標當中很少象這個指標那麼具影響力，而指標是由一系列的勞動市場指標所組成。由於公佈的時機是在月份結束後的第一個週五，時效性也不用懷疑。就業形勢報告中最引人注意的是失業增長率。

調查主要分為家庭調查和機構調查兩種，綜合起來就可以得出就業形勢的輪廓。機構調查的資料更受到專業人士的歡迎。
除了失業增長率外，我們還要留意非農業就業資料、工作時數變化和每小時或每週收入等等細分數據。

以下是美國勞工部於1月4日發表的就業形勢分析：

The unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent in December, while nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (+18,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job growth in several service-providing industries, including professional and technical services, health care, and food services, was largely offset by job losses in construction and manufacturing.
Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents, or 0.4 percent.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
The number of unemployed persons increased by 474,000 to 7.7 million in December and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 5.0 percent.

A year earlier, the number of unemployed persons was 6.8 million, and the jobless rate was 4.4 percent. (See table A-1.)

In December, unemployment rates rose for several major worker groups--adult men (to 4.4 percent), adult women (4.4 percent), whites (4.4 percent), and Hispanics (6.3 percent). The unemployment rates for teenagers (17.1 percent) and blacks (9.0 percent) were little changed. The unemployment rate for Asians was 3.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted. Most major worker groups experienced increases in their jobless rates over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Both total employment, at 146.2 million, and the employment-population ratio, at 62.7 percent, decreased in December following increases in November. Total employment was essentially unchanged over the year, while the employment-
population ratio declined by 0.7 percentage point over the same period. The civilian labor force was essentially unchanged in December at 153.9 million. The labor force participation rate, at 66.0 percent, was unchanged over the month, but was 0.4 percentage point lower than a year earlier. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million in December, was little changed over the month but was up by 456,000 over the year.
This category includes persons who indicated that they would like to work full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-5.)
2007

January.............. 4.6 4.6 0.0

February............. 4.5 4.5 .0

March................ 4.4 4.4 .0

April................ 4.5 4.5 .0

May.................. 4.5 4.5 .0

June................. 4.5 4.6 .1

July................. 4.6 4.7 .1

August............... 4.6 4.7 .1

September............ 4.7 4.7 .0

October.............. 4.7 4.8 .1

November............. 4.7 4.7 .0

Table C. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age, seasonally adjusted

2006 2007

Employment status, sex, and age
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

TOTAL

Civilian noninstitutional

population(1).......................... 230,108 230,650 230,834 231,034 231,253 231,480 231,713 231,958 232,211 232,461 232,715 232,939 233,156

Civilian labor force.................. 152,709 152,958 152,725 152,884 152,542 152,776 153,085 153,182 152,886 153,506 153,306 153,828 153,866

Participation rate.............. 66.4 66.3 66.2 66.2 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.0

Employed............................ 145,949 145,915 145,888 146,145 145,713 145,913 146,087 146,045 145,753 146,260 146,016 146,647 146,211

Employment-population ratio..... 63.4 63.3 63.2 63.3 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 62.8 62.9 62.7 63.0 62.7

Unemployed.......................... 6,760 7,043 6,837 6,738 6,829 6,863 6,997 7,137 7,133 7,246 7,291 7,181 7,655

Unemployment rate............... 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 5.0

原文可於http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm上找到。美股對此份分析反應強烈，引致上星期五美股的跌市。這份分析令市埸震驚的並非失業率由11月的4.7%微升至12月的5%。最大的隱憂是服務性行業職位的增加正被建造業及制造業職位的減少所抵消。這正正顯示美國的次按風暴及地產市場的調整，開始影響建造業。在港股方面，提供建材、裝修物品、傢俬、燈飾及木料至美國市場的公司，未來應看淡，不應買入及持有。

Technorati : 就業形勢分析

美國重要經濟資料解讀（五）供應管理協會（ISM）製造業調查

2008-01-05T07:04:00.000-08:00

供應管理協會每月發佈兩項資料，而被市場普遍認同的是製造業資料。由於此項資料的調查物件是採購經紀人，這些人處於生產活動的前沿，對經濟的起伏有著高度的敏感性，所以資料的調查機構看上去並不起眼，但是資料還是受到歡迎，當然，其中一個原因是其時效性，指標選擇在每月結束後的第一個工作日公佈。

ISM每月向400家代表20個不同工業部門的成員公司調查，內容包括新增訂貨量、產量、就業、供應商供貨期、存貨量、顧客存貨量、價格、積壓訂貨量、新增出口訂貨量和進口等10項內容。
如果指數在50以上表明經濟擴張；43―50之間表明生產活動收縮；持續低於43表明生產和經濟可能在衰退。

在2008年1月2日發表去年12月ISM製造業指數報47.7%，原文照錄如下：

Manufacturing failed to grow in December as the PMI registered 47.7 percent, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points when compared to November's reading of 50.8 percent. This is the first month that the manufacturing sector has failed to grow since January 2007. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 41.9 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates that the overall economy is growing while the manufacturing sector is contracting. "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI average for January through December (52.2 percent) corresponds to a 3.2 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) annually. In addition, if the PMI for December (47.7 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 1.8 percent increase in real GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month	PMI	Month	PMI
Dec 2007	47.7	Jun 2007	56.0
Nov 2007	50.8	May 2007	55.0
Oct 2007	50.9	Apr 2007	54.7
Sep 2007	52.0	Mar 2007	50.9
Aug 2007	52.9	Feb 2007	52.3
Jul 2007	53.8	Jan 2007	49.3

從上表所見，12月有顯著的下降，這可能預示美國經濟開始步入寒冬。

Technorati : ISM, 供應管理協會製造業調查

美國重要經濟資料解讀（四）生產者物價指數（PPI）

2008-01-02T04:42:00.000-08:00

跟CPI一樣，這個指標是預測通貨膨脹的重要指標之一，不過它反映的是生產者這個環節，是在通脹轉移到消費者之前的資料，也就是說它對通脹和利率政策更具前瞻性，儘管其對消費者的影響力不如CPI。通脹是投資市場最大的敵人，任何反映通脹的資料都理所當然受到市場的關注。

PPI是生產過程中每一個階段的價格指數，這些階段包括原材料、中間品和產成品。當然最具影響力的是產成品的PPI，因為它跟CPI的關聯性最大。

同樣有一個核心PPI的概念，是產成品PPI扣除食品和能源等不穩定專案後的資料。所以投資市場很多時候最注重的核心產成品PPI指數。

從第一幅圖所見，整體PPI升勢凌厲，直衝10%。但扣除能源和食品後的PPI僅按年升約2%且有下降之勢。整體而言，在食品和能源價格的帶動下，美國的通脹很大機會變本加厲，令市場憂心。估計聯儲局會不計通脹的壓力，減息救次按。香港也會跟隨進入通脹市。

Technorati : PPI, 生產者物價指數

新歲的祝福

2008-01-01T06:55:00.001-08:00

是耶和華你神所眷顧的；從歲首到年終，耶和華你神的眼目時常看顧那地。(申11:12)

你眷顧地，降下透雨，使地大得肥美。神的河滿了水；你這樣澆灌了地，好為人預備五穀。

你澆透地的犁溝，潤平犁脊，降甘霖，使地軟和；其中發長的，蒙你賜福。

你以恩典為年歲的冠冕；你的路徑都滴下脂油，

滴在曠野的草場上。小山以歡樂束腰；

草場以羊群為衣；谷中也長滿了五穀。這一切都歡呼歌唱。(詩65:9-13)

你指教我們怎樣數算自己的日子，好叫我們得著智慧的心。(詩90:12)

一年伊始，謹以經上的三段話和大家互相祝福，希望大家因耶和華我們神的看顧，過充滿恩典的2008年。

Technorati : 基督教

美國重要經濟資料解讀（三）消費者物價指數

2007-12-31T10:06:00.000-08:00

消費者物價指數這個指標是市場上最矚目的經濟指標之一，通脹（縮）率是聯儲局決定是否加息的最主要參考指標，而消費者物價指數則是最重要的通脹（縮）指標。通脹（縮）會影響到民生、政府的財政政策和民間的所有經濟活動。通脹（縮）對於投資市場來說是件非常可怕的事情，因為它製造了經濟的不穩定性和不確定性，給股市會帶來波動和風險。消費者物價指數的計算方法包括 8 個主要類別的商品和服務： 1. 住宅（ 42.1% ） , 2. 食品和飲料（ 15.4% ） , 3. 交通運輸（ 16.9% ）， 4. 醫療（ 6.1% ）， 5. 服裝（ 4.0% ） , 6. 娛樂（ 5.8% ）， 7. 教育和交流（ 5.9% ）， 8. 其他和煙草（ 3.8% ）。美國勞工部會對 23000 個零售商和 87 個城市的機構進行電話調查，經過整理後得出有關的資料。
為了使統計保持穩定性，減少一些波動性較大的因素，政府也會同時發表一個叫核心消費者物價指數（ CORE-CPI ），該指數排除了食品和能源等不穩定的成分，被認為是一個最能反映通脹的經濟指標。同時，我們也要注意到季節性因素的調整，比如對某些農產品的價格要作出這樣的處理。對於通脹，聯儲局有一個容忍的範圍，而對於投資者來說，投資市場的變動主要居於市場預測與實際數字的差異而產生的，以下各項指標都有一樣的情況。
第一幅圖，美國按年平均CPI數字衝破了4%，以往出現這種情況聯儲局一般會加息控制通脹。但面對次按而引起的經濟衰過退的危機，聯儲局唯有減息幫助市場渡過危機。這種做法，可以令股市在次按危機中暫時回穩。通脹加減息，會令市場再次出現泡沬效應。聯儲局同美國政府面對總统大選之年，多數會顧通脹威脅，繼續减息。繼IT泡沬及樓市泡沬後，讓我們拭目以待，下一個泡沬在哪裡？美國可能會出現環保及替代能源泡沬，因從第二幅圖所見，美國能源CPI按年增長超越20%以上，相信環保及替代能源會是市場熱炒的話題。而香港的環保及替代能源股票太少，泡沬會出現於傳統的地產業，增長投資者不妨在明年多加留意。而第三幅圖見到食品CPI直創5%，環球農產品價格升勢變，農業食品股及基金也可以是明年增長重點。

Technorati : Consumer Price Index, 消費者物價指數

美國重要經濟資料解讀（二）聯儲局公開市場委員會會後聲明

2007-12-29T23:18:00.000-08:00

市場在聯儲局公開市場委員會（FOMC）每年8次的會議前夕，總是喜歡猜測和預測該次會議對利率政策的取向，甚至連語氣和用詞都斤斤計較，主要是FOMC是決定美國利率走向的主宰者，而利率是美國經濟未來增長的最重要因素，它的變化都會令消費支出、公司利潤、政府預算及股票債券和美元的價值都受到影響。利率不單直接影響到美國，也直接影響香港，因為香港實行的是聯繫匯率，所以在眾多的美國經濟資料當中，FOMC的會後聲明，可以說是對香港市場的影響最為直接的美國經濟資料或指標。而每當FOMC的會後聲明與市場的預測有所出入時，或用詞語氣方面有所改變時，都難免引起投資市場的波動。

聯儲局公開市場委員會（FOMC）由19位成員組成，包括7位聯邦儲備委員會委員和12位元地區聯邦儲備銀行主席。FOMC只有12位人士具有投票權，7位委員和紐約聯儲銀行主席具有永久投票權，剩下4個投票席位由其餘成員輪任。

下面是一份最新的會後聲明，發表於 December 11, 2007

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/4 percent.

Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks. Today's action, combined with the policy actions taken earlier, should help promote moderate growth over time.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but elevated energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Recent developments, including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic growth and inflation. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to lower the target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis.

到底這份聲明有什麼啓示呢？聯儲局决定减息25點而聯邦基金利率是4.25%。其實美國的建屋及消費十分疲弱，而且財經市場的不穩定性增加。雖然面對能源及商品價格的上升和通漲的壓力，為了維持及刺激經濟的温和增長，聯儲局被逼減息。本來减息是有利美股的好事，但金融動盪經濟不穩下，美股表現並不樂觀。而受美股影響好深的港般表現也會特別的好。在聯儲局理事中有一位投票要求减息50點，展望美息有再減的空間。美股、美滙及港股牛皮或牛皮向下的可能性較大。

Technorati : FOMC Press release, 聯儲局公開市場委員會會後聲明

美國重要經濟資料解讀（一）

2007-12-29T08:08:00.000-08:00

香港股票市場容易受到週邊股市影響，特別是美國股市，而美國的金融市場（主要是股市、債市和滙市）經常也受到其國內各種經濟數據的影響而產生波動，所以全球化下香港投資者，其實已經參與了國際市場，對於世界經濟火車頭的美國，要對其經濟數據有一定的認識，大家對於這個問題都不會有太大的異議，而在接下來的幾天內會簡單談談美國一些重要的經濟資料，而本文主要是參考了由BAUMOHL撰寫的《THE SECRETS OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS》而寫的。

首先讓我們瞭解哪些經濟指標是最重要的，美國每週公佈的經濟指標不少，當中有重要、有次要的，對我們而言，其中20個重要的經濟指標包括：

1. 聯儲局公開市場委員會會議聲明每年八次每次議息會議會後美聯儲

2. 消費者物價指數（CPI）每月當月的第二周或第三周勞工部

3. 生產者物價指數每月月份結束後2周勞工部

4. 供應管理協會製造業調查每月下月第一個工作日供應管理協會（ISM）

5. 就業形勢分析（資料）每月月份結束後第一個週五勞工部

6. 每週失業救濟申請人數每週週四勞工部

7. 耐用品訂單每月月份結束後3－4周商務部

8. 零售銷售額每月月份結束後第二周商務部

9. 消費者信心指數每月當月最後一個週二經濟咨商局（會議局）

10. 消費者情緒調查（初值和終值）半月每月第二個週五（初值）和最後一個週五（終值）密歇根大學

11. EIA石油儲存報告每週週三能源資訊署

12. 領先經濟指標每月月份結束後第三周經濟咨商局（會議局）

13. 工業產值和設備利用率每月下月月中美聯儲

14. 國際貿易每月第二周商務部

15. 國內生產總值（GDP）每季每季結束第一個月的最後一周商務部

16. 個人收入和支出每月月份結束後4-5周商務部

17. 新屋動工和建造許可證數字每月月份結束後2－3周商務部

18. 二手房屋銷售資料每月月份結束後四周全美房地產經紀人協會

19. 新屋銷售數位每月月份結束後四周左右商務部

20. 每週住房抵押貸款申請每週週三抵押貸款銀行家協會（MBA）

Technorati : economic indicators, investment, 投資, 經濟數據

中華第一聖堂

2007-12-27T18:13:00.001-08:00

今年的平安夜在有中華第一聖堂之稱的新街堂渡過。新街堂建於清道光二十八年(1848年)，由於美國歸正教會選址於新街(今台光街)而得名。據說也是中國第一間基督教禮拜堂。為中華基督教會全國總會敕為"中華第一聖堂"。这是一座仿西臘的西式建築，磚石結構，花崗岩石階通至堂前廊台，廊臺上巍然矗立六根科林斯柱。白色圓柱支撐三角形山牆，山牆上鑲嵌一塊橢圓形大理石匾，上面鐫刻著鎏金的文字："敬拜真神/大主宰之堂/AD1848"。樓頂上建有穹頂鐘樓，鐘樓上聳立紅色十字架。基督教傳入廈門，靠的卻是傳道士鍥而不捨的工作。新街禮拜堂建之前，廈門沒有教堂，第一個到廈門的雅裨理傳教士，就到露天演講，四處奔波。從1842年到1844年底他因病回國，廈門尚未有一人入教。1846年雅氏在美國病逝，當時的廈門，在他同事的努力下，也只有兩位老人入教。倫敦公教會傳教士在廈門佈道四年，入教者也只有兩人。

當天晚上牧師的證道的題目是「為什麼聖誕快樂」，引用的經文是約3:16。之後有音樂劇「為愛降生」的表演。教堂內座無虛席，人山人海。結束時的呼召，整個台上都站滿了人(詳見照片)。旁邊一位會友告訴我，每次崇拜完了呼召時都有很多人决志信主。這和宣教士初期來華時的情况不可同日而語。一粒麥子死了，掉在地裡，果然結出很多麥子來。現在中國人對福音的饑渴，讓我看見一大片的禾田。

Technorati : 信仰, 基督教

天音無聲大愛精誠

2007-12-27T07:51:00.000-08:00

今年聖誕的崇拜是在中國大陸的一間教會渡過的。崇拜中天音詩班的獻詩令我留下了深刻的印象。天音代表了由天而傳的佳音，也就是上帝的聲音。那天，證道的題目是此曲只應天上有，人間哪得幾回聞。這也是我用於形容天音詩班的詩句。天音是由一班聾人組成的基督徒團契，他們用手語唱出對天父的讚美。伴隨背景的音樂，唱出美妙的旋律。

詩班唱了《這一生最美的祝福》。

在無數的黑夜裡，

我用星星畫出你，

你的恩典如晨星，

讓我真實的見到你，

在我的歌聲裡，

我用音符讚美你，

你的美好是我今生頌揚的。

這一生最美的祝福，

就是能認識主耶穌，

這一生最美的祝福，

就是能信靠主耶穌，

走在高山深谷，

祂會伴我同行，我知道，這是最美的祝福。

雖是無聲，如聽驚雷。令我想起小時候聖經老師說的話：「上帝為人關上一扇門，必會為人開一扇窗。」他們的表演掌聲不絕，我深信愛我們的主必悅納他們的敬拜。主愛無邊，我仿佛在其中見到上帝的微笑。

Technorati : 信仰, 基督教

基準投資法 Benchmark Investing

2007-12-27T06:12:00.000-08:00

貪婪和恐懼一直都是投資者最大的敵人，人要戰勝自己的情緒並不容易。市場的反覆無常會使投身其中的人失卻理智。人因為貪婪而在高位追貨，或不捨得在高位套利；人因恐懼在低位是不高價地沽貨，或不敢入市在低位接貨。可以說是輸間廠贏粒糖。美林證券的李坎利(Kenneth Lee)認為如果可以建立一套理性有效的賣買系統，就可以减少個人情緒對投資的影響。從而戰勝市場。

基準投資利用Value Line的資料預估股票3至5年溢利的資料分析股票，所提方法可加於借鑑用於香港股市。香港並沒有俱公信力的機構提供這類服務。在經濟通的網站提供了1至2年並不太全面的溢利預測。

它包括以下步驟：

1) 找出過去十年的權益報酬率 ROE並排除負值的年度。

ROE = Net Income/Share holder's equity*100%

2) 將目前的權益報酬率除以過去十年的平均值 , 以求出調整後權益報酬率比率。

Adjusted ROE = (ROE1+ ROE2+ ROE3+ ROE4+ ROE5+ ROE6+ ROE7+ ROE8+ ROE9+ ROE10)/10*ROE10

3) 找出過去十年的平均帳面價值(BV), 同時求出相同期間股價的最高及最低交

易價格之平均值。(AHP & ALP)

BV = Net asset/Number of stock

Average BV=(BV1+BV2+BV3+BV3+BV5+BV6+BV7+BV8+BV9+BV10)/10

Average HP = (HP1+ HP2+ HP3 + HP4+ HP5+ HP6+ HP7+ HP8+ HP9+ HP10)/10

Average LP = (LP1+ LP2+ LP3 + LP4+ LP5+ LP6+ LP7+ LP8+ LP9+ LP10)/10

4) 將過去十年最低及最高交易價格平均值 , 除以平均帳面價值 , 求出市價與帳面價值比的下限(LL)及上限 (UL)

LL = Average LP/Average BV

UL = Average HP/Average BV

5) 首先將該股票的市價與帳面價值比的下限 , 乘上調整後權益報酬率比率,以得到下檔目標價位 , 然後將此數字乘上目前的帳面價值。

Downside target = LL*Adjusted ROE*current BV

6) 將該股票的市價與帳面價值比的上限 , 乘上調整後權益報酬率比率, 以得到上檔目標價位 , 然後將此數字乘上目前的帳面價值。

Upside target = HL*Adjusted ROE*current BV

7) 目前價位低於Downside target，1年盈利增長率大於10%，未來3至5年ROE大於15%

Reference

Trouncing the Dow: A Value-Based Method for Making Huge Profits Kenneth Lee ISBN: 0071368345 Publisher: McGraw-Hill Pub. Date: Dec 2000

Technorati : Benchmark Investing, 基準投資法

核心投資法 Focus Investing

2007-12-14T23:07:00.001-08:00

很多投資者都聽過一句話：「不要將所有的雞蛋擺放在同一隻籃子內。」這句話成了分散投資的經典。有許多投資者也深信分散投資是風險管理十分重要的一部分。到底分散投資是否可以有效减少風險？投資要分散到什麽程度才可以减少風險？我記憶所及，有一篇論文曾經提及在一個投資組合有5隻股票及擁有20隻股票所承受的風險十分接近。一個業餘小投資者，在個人組合中持有太多股票往往是十分不智的。其原因如下：

太多股票要關注，未必有足够時間深入研究。

容易顧此失彼，做出錯誤的賣買決定。

如每注注碼太小，每次賣買佣金需要交最低收費。賣買的皮費將嚴重侵蝕利益。

因資金太分散，當遇上好的投資機會手上的彈藥有限，錯失良機。

我建議個人投資者

1. 資金少於100萬時，可持有3至5隻股票。

2. 資金大過100萬至1000萬，可持有5至10隻股票。

3. 累積資金大於1000萬，請盡快和我分享你的投資心得及持倉技巧，使我可以加入你們的行列。

核心投資法，追求的止是集中，而且選擇股票要準。集中而失準，輸錢輸得更快。集中而準確的投資，回報必定驚人。核心投資法講求的是尋找優秀的股票並持有，去賺取豐厚的回報。而如何去找出優質的股票，大家不一妨參考之前反向、價值和增長投資法並將它們融匯貫通。(筆者本人尚未臻此境界。)巴菲特、費雪和著名經濟學家凱恩斯都採用此法管理他們的組合。

Reference

http://www.focusinvestor.com/mission.htm

Technorati : focus investing, 核心投資法

成長投資法 Growth Investing

2007-12-14T16:55:00.000-08:00

成長投資者在市場之中尋找高增長好業績的股票，他們並太在乎股票的現價是否太過昂貴。因為他們深信一間可以保持長期高增長的公司是值得付出高價(高PE)去購入。公司斷的增長將令股價常升常有，並且在同類公司中脫穎而出。巴菲特認為成長投資法和價值投資法是殊途同歸。("Growth and Value Investing are joined at the hip")在各種投資泡沬形成之前，成長投資法一向受人追捧。但片面追求成長，不理基本價值，往往會鼓起餘勇追殘寇，貪勝不知輸；而太過追求價值，希望追入平貨，可能會失去很多賺大錢的機會。成長投資法的大家包括了大小費雪(Philip Arthur Fisher和Kenneth L. Fisher)，大費雪可以稱為成長投資法的先驅。而前富達基金的明星經理彼德林治 (Peter Lynch)也是其中之表表者。成長投資法適用於以下市場

新興市場

綠色環保業

生物科技

網絡經濟

國企紅籌

小型投機股

特別情況下的特定行業(如低息高通漲下的地產業)

大費雪提出了15條問題，有助大家去尋找好的成長股：

該公司的產品及服務有沒有潛力在未來的幾年有高的增長潛力？

管理層是否有決心及能力去延續這種增長？

公司的研發能力是否和其規模相稱？

公司的售賣網絡是否組織良好，運作有效？

公司的毛利率是否表現出色？

公司是否有力維持出色的毛利率？

公司和員工的關係是否良好？

管理層是否合作無間？

管理層是否向公司借貸？

公司的成本及會計控制是否有效？

和同類公司相比，公司是否有競爭優勢？

公司是否有短期及長期營利預測？

在可見將來，公司會否大量配股而冲淡每股的盈利增長？

公司的管理層在逆境及麻煩時，是否有透明度？

公司的管理層是否廉潔正直？

總括而言，一間良好的增長型公司在品牌、公司管理及持續高增長的盈利三方面需要有超卓並不斷追越超卓的表現。

Reference

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, Philip Arthur Fisher,Harper & Bros., 1958·

Developing an Investment Philosophy (Monograph), Philip Arthur Fisher, The Financial Analysts Research Foundation, 1980 ·

One Up on Wall Street, Peter Lynch with John Rothchild, 1989

Technorati : growth investing, 成長投資法

價值投資法 Value Investing

2007-12-10T07:30:00.000-08:00

價值投資法是在1934年由一代宗師格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)及多爾(David Dood在其劃時代的巨著《證券分析》中提出，由他的弟子巴菲特(Warren Buffett)發揚光大。在華爾街中被視為圭臬。價值投資的盛名不衰，跟從者眾。實乃因為價值投資大師輩出，我們耳熟能詳的有巴菲特及鄧普頓(John Templrton)。而很多學術論文都指出價值投資和增長投資相比，價值投資成績更佳。價值投資的精要是透過基本分析(fundemental analysis)，在市場上尋找價錢遠低於其內在價值(intrinsic value)股票，購入持有，直至的其股價接近或等於內在價值就其沽出。但是計算內在價值並非易事，同的行業有同的計算方法。計算銀行的方法並不適用於運輸公司，而反之亦然。而對於一些新興行業如互聯網、生物科技及環保能源等，進行內在價值的估算便十分困難。(這個也可能是巴菲特不投資科技股最主要的原因。)背後牽涉到閱讀過去多年公司年報，透過不同的數據(如PE,PEG,PS,PB......)等的估算及對公司未來1-3年營利增長的預測，計算公司的內在價值。而不同的價值投資者，會有自已一套計算內在價值的方法。對於投資初哥，進行大量資料搜集及獨立分析，是十分困難的。

價值投資者一般深信

要在股票的價錢遠低於其內在價值買入。

要在股票的價錢少許低於內在價值時(可能是10%時)沽出。(巴菲特在中石油未見頂時，已開始沽貨的可能原因。)

只利用技術分析，難於取勝。

頻繁的賣買，只會侵蝕利潤。

靠媒體消息炒出炒入，容易跌入陷阱。

公司的年報提供了第一手的財務資料去發掘內在價值偏低的公司。

巴菲德身為價值投資的一代宗師，他提出的一些建議值得我們參考，他提出

投資於壟斷或龍頭公司。(頜導市場的方向和價格)

公司的業務及產品應該簡單易解，增長潛力巨大。(便於內在價值的計算)

公司在該行業擁有悠久的歷史。(有往績可尋)

公司經營的行業本小利大。(保證增長的利益)

公司的財務穩健。(利於長期持有)

公司管理層透明度高，忠誠進取盡責，以股東的利益為依歸。(提供可靠資料，領導公司增長，派發合理股息)

公司的價格合理。(在內在價值60%或以下)

巴菲德遠離各項市場訊息，但他每年會檢視持倉股栗的

現金流

負債

資本支出

毛利

初始回報率

他主張長期持有股票並在股價趨近內在價值時沽出。

價值投資的一些缺陷

失去在新興行業及IPO股票中可能賺取的豐厚利益。

需要閱讀大量資料數據。

估算不同行業時牽涉不同的方法，難學難精。

年報及財務報表的內容並不一定真確。

很少投資者有耐性及能够嚴守紀律。

Reference

Security Analysis (1934), by Benjamin Graham.

The Intelligent Investor(1949), by Benjamin Graham.

You Can Be a Stock Market Genius (1997), by Joel Greenblatt.

The Essays of Warren Buffett (2001), edited by Lawrence A. Cunningham.

The Little Book That Beats the Market (2006), by Joel Greenblatt.

The Little Book of Value Investing (2006), by Chris Browne. Value

Investor Insight (http://www.valueinvestorinsight.com)/

Technorati : value investing, 價值投資法

相反投資法 Contrarian Investing

2007-12-08T06:44:00.000-08:00

股市賺錢之道，不外乎低買高沽。一般人都喜歡撈底入貨。不過有時是越跌越買，越買越跌，低處未算低，落得損手爛腳。所以要成為真正的反向投資者，如果可以遵循一些行之有效的準則，取勝的機會必定大大增加。反向投資者一般會有以下特徵，他們會在

壞消息出現時買進，好消息出現時賣出。

相信群眾永遠是錯的，因為市場上只有少數的人贏錢。

持有股票一段較長時間。(2至3年)

大家賣出買進，人人買進時賣出。

嚴以律已，有計劃地教資。

相方投資者會在以下訊號出現時，入市購貨

當一隻股票的價錢跌至52週最高價的50%或以下。

該股票的PE小於12。

該股票的PB<1.2或ps<1.2。>

該股票的市值大於12億。(市值太小的公司，基金不太熱衷賣買，而且抵御經濟低潮的能力較差。)

該股票的資產負債比率小於15%。(視乎行業及投資者承受風險的程度，可一概而論。 )

最重要的是當內幕人士(包括公司管理層及基金經理)開始大手入貨，才跟隨入市。)

出貨訊號

股價上升50%或以上。

持貨超過3年。

風險管理

入貨後股價下跌25%，止蝕。

不要將所有資金投入一隻股票，持貸5隻或以上有助分散風險。

任何一隻股票，不要超過個人資產的15%。

要將股息再投入同一股票。

Reference

Contrarian Investment Strategy: The Psychology of Stock Market Success. 1980. Random House.

The New Contrarian Investment Strategy. 1982. Random House.

Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation. 1998. Simon & Schuster. ISBN 0-684-81350-5.

Technorati : contrarian investing, 相反投資法

致勝之道-------投資方法分享

2007-12-08T06:40:00.000-08:00

在股市上有形形色色的投資者，他們利用各種行之有效的投資方法，在波瀾汹湧的股海中取得巨大的利潤。我見有許多人，升市樂極忘形，跌市粗口連篇。有時人云亦云，在恐懼和貪婪中掙扎，報紙電台甚至其他人的推介號碼，他們不加思考就盲目跟隨，投資多年而找不到投資的路徑，入門的階梯，只能成為大户點心，令我覺得十分可悲。我希望透過各種投資方法的介紹和分享，和各位有心之人一起找尋股壇上贏錢之道。投過大家的分享及切磋，利用這些方法去分析，透過資料搜供及獨立分析，尋找充滿升值潛力的股票。但是兵無常法，水無常形，靈活應用，存乎一心。方法是死的，人和市場是活的。只有透過在市場中不斷的實踐，以市場為師，才有機會找到致勝之道。在此，我先預告將會介紹的投資方法：

反向投資法 Contrarian Investment (筆者個人最喜好的投資方法)

價值投資法 Value Investment (股神巴菲特奉行的方法)

成長投資法 Growth Investment

核心投資法 Focus Investment

基準投資法 Benchmark Investment

Technorati : Investment, 投資

投資基本法

股市預測 (十二) 基本分析-騙人的投資專家(經紀佬)

股市預測 (十一) 基本分析-格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的一些忠告

股市預測 (十) 基本分析-以格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)為師

股市預測 (九) 基本分析 – 為人詬病之處

股市預測 (八) 基本分析 – 淫照的啟示

股市預測 (七) 隨機漫步理論的數學基礎之温納過程(Wiener processes)

股市預測 (六) 隨機漫步理論的數學基礎之常態分佈

股市預測 (五) 隨機漫步理論的數學基礎之二項分佈

股市預測 (四) 從測不準定律說起

股市預測 (三) 隨機的可測性

股市預測 (二) 兩種測市態度

股市預測 (一) 股神vs估神

次按風暴(五) 美國經濟是否陷入衰退？

次按風暴(四) 次按風暴何時了

次按風暴(三) 金融創新的受益者和受害者

次按風暴(二) 什麼是次按

次按風暴(一) 令人失望的伯南克

美國重要經濟資料解讀（二十）新屋銷售數字和每週住房抵押貸款申請

號外:聯儲局减息0.75息

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十九）二手房屋銷售資料

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十八）新屋動工和建造許可證數字

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十七）個人收入和支出

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十六） 國內生產總值（GDP）

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十五）國際貿易

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十四）工業產值和設備利用率

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十三）領先經濟指標

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十二）EIA 石油儲存報告

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十一）消費者情緒調查

讀Yale還是唸Stanford -兩個免費的大學網上宗教課程

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十）消費者信心指數

美國重要經濟資料解讀（九）零售銷售額

美國重要經濟資料解讀（八）耐用品訂單

美國重要經濟資料解讀（七）每週失業救濟申請人數

美國重要經濟資料解讀（六）就業形勢分析

美國重要經濟資料解讀（五）供應管理協會（ISM）製造業調查

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

美國重要經濟資料解讀（四）生產者物價指數（PPI）

新歲的祝福

美國重要經濟資料解讀（三）消費者物價指數

美國重要經濟資料解讀（二）聯儲局公開市場委員會會後聲明

美國重要經濟資料解讀（一）

中華第一聖堂

天音無聲 大愛精誠

基準投資法 Benchmark Investing

核心投資法 Focus Investing

成長投資法 Growth Investing

價值投資法 Value Investing

相反投資法 Contrarian Investing

致勝之道-------投資方法分享

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十六）國內生產總值（GDP）

天音無聲大愛精誠