美國重要經濟資料解讀（十九）二手房屋銷售資料

二手房屋銷售是反映美國房地產市道的資料，雖然其重要性要遜色於新屋動工和建造許可證這兩個資料，由於房地產在經濟活動的重要性實在太大，我們有必要全方位瞭解其動向。而次按對二手房屋市場及經濟的影響有多深，這個數字可以帶給我們更全面的圖畫。在2007年12月31日所發佈內容如下

Existing-home sales rose slightly in November, indicating a stabilization in housing in the wake of mortgage disruptions earlier this year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - rose 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.00 million units in November from an upwardly revised pace of 4.98 million in October, but are 20.0 percent below the 6.25 million-unit level in November 2006.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market appears to be stabilizing. "Near term, existing-home sales should continue to hover in a narrow range, just as they have since September, and that's good news because it'll be a further sign that the housing market is stabilizing," he said. "Mortgage interest rates are near historic lows and the most current data shows decelerating price declines, along with a modest reduction in the number of homes on the market." Disruptions in mortgage availability and pricing peaked in August, which caused sales to slow in subsequent months.

The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $210,200 in November, down 3.3 percent from November 2006 when the median was $217,300, but there remains a downward drag on the national median as the mix of closed sales has shifted away from expensive markets.

"Just like the weather, there are large local variations in home prices," Yun said. A quarterly examination of price performance on a metropolitan basis shows nearly two-thirds of metro areas are showing price increases. Among the many metros experiencing healthy local price gains are Farmington, N.M.; Reading, Pa.; Columbia, S.C., and Fargo, N.D.

Total housing inventory declined 3.6 percent at the end of November to 4.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.3-month supply3 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.7-month supply in October. "Inventory is still high, and further reduction in prices may be required in some areas to induce buyers back into the market," Yun said.

NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said that Congress should expand affordable financing. "Consumers have some choices with safer conventional financing, but raising the limit on conforming loans would significantly revive home sales," he said. "This would help creditworthy buyers in hard hit regions like California and Florida by greatly increasing access to low-interest-rate mortgages. NAR, as the leading advocate for homeownership, strongly urges lawmakers to act quickly on this important measure."

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.21 percent in November from 6.38 percent in October; the rate was 6.24 percent in November 2006.

Single-family home sales rose 0.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.40 million in November from 4.37 million in October, but are 19.9 percent below the 5.49 million-unit pace in November 2006. The median existing single-family home price was $208,700 in November, down 3.7 percent from a year earlier.

Existing condominium and co-op sales slipped 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 600,000 units in November from 610,000 in October, and are 20.6 percent below the 756,000-unit level in November 2006. The median existing condo price4 was $221,100, down 0.7 percent from in November 2006.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the West increased 10.3 percent in November to a level of 960,000, but are 25.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $325,800, which is 6.8 percent lower than November 2006.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual rate of 1.18 million in November, but are 16.9 percent below November 2006. The median price in the Midwest was $163,000, down 0.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South declined 2.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.99 million in November, and are 19.4 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $174,200, which is 2.5 percent below November 2006.

Existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 3.3 percent to an annual pace of 870,000 in November, and are 19.4 percent below November 2006. The median price in the Northeast was $258,300, down 3.2 percent from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

這份由全美房地產經紀人協會所提供的報告並非如標題所言二手銷售走向穩定。實情是所有銷售數字和去年同期相比有大約20%的下降，而售價和去年同期相比則有0.7%至3.7%的下跌。經紀人一般傾向唱好，但實情是市場萎縮，市價下滑。美國樓市正陷入冰河期。除非大幅减息超過0.75%，市場或者會走穩。

Technorati : 二手房屋銷售資料

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十八）新屋動工和建造許可證數字

這個是美國房地產行業的一個重要的前瞻性指標。房地產行業無論在哪一個國家都顯得舉足輕重，房地產的繁榮也代表經濟的繁榮相信很少人會反對。房地產業也是經濟週期轉捩點的重要指標之一，往往是最早做出下跌和回升的反應。房地產的繁榮會產生"乘數效應"，對其他行業將產生強而有力的拉動效應，對就業和消費將產生直接的影響，反之亦然。


統計機構向全美19000個地區的建築商進行調查，向他們詢問當地的新開發住宅和登記在案的許可證專案。

新動工住宅是完全意義的新住宅，加建、改建和重建都不計算在內。同時，新動工住宅麼進行季節性調整，我們更應該注意的是3－4個月的平均數多於個別月份的資料。

NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN DECEMBER 2007


The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for December 2007:

BUILDING PERMITS


Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,068,000. This is 8.1 percent (±1.7%) below the revised November rate of 1,162,000 and is 34.4 percent (±2.2%) below the revised December 2006 estimate of 1,628,000.

Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 692,000; this is 10.1 percent (±1.6%) below the November figure of
770,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 322,000 in December.

An estimated 1,376,100 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2007. This is 25.3 percent (±0.8%) below the 2006 figure of 1,838,900.

HOUSING STARTS

Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,006,000. This is 14.2 percent (±8.3%) below
the revised November estimate of 1,173,000 and is 38.2 percent (±4.9%) below the revised December 2006 rate of 1,629,000.

Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 794,000; this is 2.9 percent (±8.7)* below the November figure of 818,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 196,000. An estimated 1,353,700 housing units were started in 2007. This is 24.8 percent (±1.3%) below the 2006 figure of 1,800,900.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS


Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,302,000. This is 7.7 percent (±10.3%)* below the revised November estimate of 1,411,000 and is 31.0 percent (±5.8%) below the revised December 2006 rate of 1,887,000.

Single-family housing completions in December were at a rate of 1,009,000; this is 12.0 percent (±10.5%) below the November figure of 1,146,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 278,000.

An estimated 1,500,200 housing units were completed in 2007. This is 24.2 percent (±1.7%) below the 2006 figure of 1,979,400.

美國次按風暴對建築行業的影響觸目驚心，十二月的新屋建造許可證數字和上月相比下降8.1%，但和去年同期相比下降了34.4%。數字之差，可以為經濟的不振埋下伏筆。而新屋動工數字和上月上月相比下降14.2%，但和去年同期相比下降了38.2%。十二月的新屋完工數字和上月相比下降7.7%，但和去年同期相比下降了31%。可以確見美國樓市步入嚴冬，次按風暴越演越烈。這對環球金融市場的衝擊十分巨大，港股較大的調整在所難免。

Technorati : 新屋動工和建造許可證數字

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十七）個人收入和支出

在美國，消費者的支出是銷售、進口、工廠產出、商業投資和就業增長的主要動力。個人的收入的兩個出路要麼就是消費、要麼就是儲蓄。消費可以推動經濟發展，儲蓄這個問題在美國已經不重要了，過去20年中美國人的儲蓄率是每況愈下。這個資料本身受到公佈時效性的影響而受重視程度較小。



個人收入包括工資和薪水（56％）、業主收入（8％）、租金收入（1.4％）、股票紅利（4.4％）、利息收入（11％）、轉移支付（13％）和其他（6.2％）。

個人支出主要用於：耐用品、非耐用品和服務。2007年11月數據如下:

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2007

BEA 07-61

PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS

NOVEMBER 2007

        Personal income increased $43.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)
increased $32.9 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $110.6 billion, or 1.1 percent.  In October,
personal income increased $24.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $17.0 billion, or 0.2 percent,
and PCE increased $39.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.

                                        2007
                                        July            Aug.            Sept.           Oct.            Nov.
                                                        (Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars        0.6             0.5             0.5             0.2             0.4
Disposable personal income:
 Current dollars                        0.7             0.5             0.5             0.2             0.3
 Chained (2000) dollars                 0.6             0.5             0.2            -0.2            -0.3
Personal consumption expenditures:
 Current dollars                        0.4             0.4             0.5             0.4             1.1
 Chained (2000) dollars                 0.3             0.4             0.2             0.1             0.5

                                Wages and salaries

        Private wage and salary disbursements increased $36.0 billion in November, in contrast to a
decrease of $1.3 billion in October.  Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $6.2 billion, in
contrast to a decrease of $2.2 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $2.9 billion, in contrast to a
decrease of $1.2 billion.  Services-producing industries' payrolls increased $29.8 billion, compared
with an increase of $1.0 billion.  Government wage and salary disbursements increased $4.0 billion,
the same increase as in October.

                                Other personal income

        Supplements to wages and salaries increased $6.0 billion in November, compared with an
increase of $4.4 billion in October.

        Proprietors' income increased $7.2 billion in November, compared with an increase of $3.7
billion in October.  Farm proprietors' income increased $0.5 billion, compared with an increase of
$0.6 billion.  Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $6.7 billion, compared with an increase of $3.1
billion.

        Rental income of persons increased $1.9 billion in November, compared with an increase of
$2.2 billion in October.  Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal
dividend income) increased $2.5 billion, compared with an increase of $2.4 billion.  Personal current
transfer receipts decreased $9.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $9.6 billion. The November
change reflects a decrease in Medicare part D prescription drug benefit payments; the reduction
reflects the annual reconciliation of estimated and actual prescription drug costs.

        Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income --
increased $5.1 billion in November, compared with an increase of $0.2 billion in October.

                                Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

        Personal current taxes increased $10.3 billion in November, compared with an increase of $7.8
billion in October.  Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes
-- increased $32.9 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November, compared with an increase of $17.0 billion,
or 0.2 percent, in October.

                                Personal outlays and personal saving

        Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments
increased $111.9 billion in November, compared with an increase of $41.0 billion in October.  PCE
increased $110.6 billion, compared with an increase of $39.4 billion.

        Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was a negative $48.4 billion in November, in
contrast to a positive $30.7 billion in October.  Personal saving as a percentage of disposable
personal income was a negative 0.5 percent in November, in contrast to a positive 0.3 percent in
October.  Negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income.
Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing
(including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or
other assets, or by using savings from previous periods.  For more information, see the FAQs on
"Personal Saving" on BEA's Web site.

                                Real DPI and real PCE

        Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.3 percent in November,
compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent in October.

        Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.5 percent in November,
compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in October.  Purchases of durable goods increased 0.6
percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent.  Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.6
percent, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent.  Purchases of services increased 0.5 percent,
compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent.

        The price index for PCE increased 0.6 percent in November, compared with an increase of 0.3
percent in October; most of the November increase was accounted for by increases in energy prices.
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, the same increase as in
October.

                                Revisions

        Estimates have been revised for July through October.  Changes in personal income, current-
dollar and chained (2000) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (2000) dollar PCE for
September and October -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

                                                                Change from preceding month

                                        September                                 October
                                        Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised
                                       (Billions of dollars)       (Percent)     (Billions of dollars)       (Percent)
Personal Income:
 Current dollars......................  50.4       53.7      0.4        0.5       21.2       24.8      0.2        0.2
Disposable personal income:
 Current dollars......................  43.2       46.6      0.4        0.5       14.0       17.0      0.1        0.2
 Chained (2000) dollars...............  13.3       14.9      0.2        0.2      -12.4      -13.2     -0.1       -0.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
 Current dollars......................  33.0       48.9      0.3        0.5       23.8       39.4      0.2        0.4
 Chained (2000) dollars...............   5.7       18.0      0.1        0.2       -2.9        7.0      0.0        0.1

        BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov.  By
visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and
announcements.

                            *     *    *

        Next release -- January 31, 2008, at 8:30 A.M. EST for Personal Income and Outlays for December

        Release dates in 2008

        December 2007...   January 31    April 2008...     May 30        August 2008...   September 29
         January 2008...  February 29      May 2008...    June 27     September 2008...     October 31
        February 2008...     March 28     June 2008...   August 4       October 2008...    November 26
           March 2008...       May  1     July 2008...  August 29      November 2008...    December 24

11月的數據十分正面，星期一會有12月的數據，到時再和大家分享。

Technorati : 個人收入和支出