次按風暴(二) 什麼是次按

次級按揭是指一些本身信貸紀錄欠佳的人，透過借入息率較高的按揭去購入房屋。借貸紀錄欠佳的人保括收入未達標、有不良還款紀錄甚或物業估價不足等種種原因。次級按揭的貸款人多數希望在借貸期間重整和修補個人信貸紀錄，透過轉按的安排，將有關按揭成功轉到最優惠利率按揭或低於最優惠利率按揭。因此多數的次按安排年期會較短。而美國最常見的次按分別是兩年定息期的浮息按揭(Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2/28)和三年定息期的浮息按揭(Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3/27)。在定息期過後，次按的利息將是某個指標利息再加若干厘。例如可以是6個月銀行同業拆息加5厘。

很多借取次按的貸款者，並不太暸解在財務上個人面對的風險。次按設有罰息期，而且罰息期的時間可以比定息期長。在定息期內，借貸人未必可以重整和修補個人信貸紀錄，成功進行轉按。如果經濟良好，工資上調時，借貸人可以因為每月薪金上升而提高供款能力，改善個人信貸紀錄。但當經濟逆轉時，工資甚至會下降。當定息期過後，借貸人無機會轉按，唯有要供浮動高利息。另外，在定息期過後，市場利息如大幅上揚，侵蝕借貸人的供款能力，次按也無法轉按。次按借貸人在買樓時正遇上美國樓市的牛市，他們預期樓價在二三年後大幅上升，有助他們轉按及再估價。可是美國樓市現在步入熊市。借貸人唯有徒呼奈何。而定息期過後，如大量供款人無力供樓，貸款人除收樓外將面對大量壞賬。

理論上，聯儲局大幅減息有助次按業主渡過難關。實際上次按問題並非如此簡單，有關詳情，請待下文敘述。

Technorati : Adjustable Rate Mortgage，ARM, 次按

次按風暴(一) 令人失望的伯南克

美國的次按，成為最近全球股市狂升暴跌市場大幅波動的原因。聯儲局在面對這次風暴時，初時置之不理。伯南克在2007年8月7日發表的聲明以關注通漲為由，雖見市場有下跌風險也堅拒減息。聯儲局的決定，令市場對新官上任的伯南克大失信心。市況的穩，令聯儲局被逼在2007年8月10日注資市場。在2007年8月17日再發聲明，表示關注信貸緊縮及財經市場的動盪，而且會適時採取行動。在短短十日內聯儲局的政策前言對後語，出手躊躇舉棋不定，市場大失所望之餘更形恐慌。而伯南克也失卻了減息救次按的最佳時機。聯儲局由主動變被動，不能領導市場，而是被市場牽著鼻子走。

2007年9月18日聯儲局被逼减息50點子，去穩定市場和刺激可持續的經濟增長。聯儲局以相同理由在2007年10月31日減息25點子，在2007年12月11日又減息25點子，但市場依然疲弱。2008年1月22日，因環球股市陷入暴跌，聯儲局在驚徨失措中將息率調低75點子至3.5%。市場的觀感，覺得聯儲局進退失據；甚至懷疑市場可能還有未引爆的炸彈。聯儲局至今共減息175點子，但次按風暴越演越烈。落筆打三更，伯南克已令市場屢屢失望。在對抗次按的一仗中如打敗仗的將軍。

預料聯儲局會不斷減息，不過相信二至三季後才有效力。

本文完成後我在華爾街日報見到這段影片，新聞的標題是《Fed大幅降息遭非議》。

Technorati : 次按

美國重要經濟資料解讀（二十）新屋銷售數字和每週住房抵押貸款申請

這兩個數據是美國樓市的重要指標。在2007年12月28日發表的最新新屋銷售數字的報告如下：

Sales of new one-family houses in November 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 647,000, according to

estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 9.0 percent (±13.9%)* below the revised October rate of 711,000 and is 34.4 percent (±7.9%) below the November 2006 estimate of 987,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2007 was $239,100; the average sales price was $293,300. The
seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 505,000. This represents a supply of 9.3
months at the current sales rate.

New Residential Sales data for December 2007 will be released on Monday, January 28, 2008, at 10:00 A.M. EST.

每週住房抵押貸款申請由 抵押貸款銀行家協會（ MBA ）在2008年1月23日發表：

WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 23, 2008) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 18, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure ofmortgage loan application volume, was 981.5, an increase of 8.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 906.4 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 11.0 percent compared with the previous week and was up 63.7 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

"Refinance applications are up 92% since the beginning of November and purchase applications are up 7%. With tighter credit conditions we do not know how many of these applications will become loans, but it is clear that borrowers are responding to the 40-80 basis point drop in rates we have seen since November 2 across products," said Jay Brinkmann, Vice President of Research and Economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The Refinance Index increased 16.9 percent to 4178.2 from 3575.5 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.6 percent to 439.9 from 461.2 one week earlier. The Conventional Purchase Index decreased 5.5 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) increased 1.0 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the Purchase Index increased 1.1 percent to 369.7 from 365.7 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Conventional Index increased 8.3 percent to 1413.7 from 1305.5 the previous week, and the seasonally adjusted Government Index increased 8.2 percent to 260.9 from 241.2 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 13.7 percent to 782.0 from 687.5. The four week moving average is up 2.8 percent to 419.0 from 407.6 for the Purchase Index, while this average is up 23.6 percent to 2967.2 from 2401.5 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66.0 percent of total applications from 62.7 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 9.3 from 9.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.49 percent from 5.62 percent, with points increasing to 1.07 from 0.94 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.96 percent from 5.07 percent, with points increasing to 1.22 from 1.09 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 5.51 percent from 5.77 percent, with points increasing to 1.01 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

從新屋銷售數字所見，11月的數據按月下降9%而按年下跌34.4%。而截且2008年1月28日的住房抵押貸款申請按週上升8.3%，按年上升63.7%。數據之間十分矛盾，銷售下降而住房抵押貸款申請上升，可能是銀行批核信貸十分謹慎，引致個案大量堆積，而在現行信貸環境下，很多申請未必獲得按揭。

Technorati : 新屋銷售數字, 每週住房抵押貸款申請