2008-01-19

美國重要經濟資料解讀(十六) 國內生產總值(GDP)

反映整體的經濟走向,統計的規模最大也最全面。但是由於是每季度後才公佈,所以時效性和前瞻性欠奉,但是可以視作是對前一季度國民經濟活動的總結。

美國2007年第三季GDP數字在2007年12好20日公佈:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2007, according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.


The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the preliminary estimates issued last month. In the preliminary estimates, the increase in real GDP was also 4.9 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, nonresidential structures, federal government spending, equipment and software, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports,
which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in exports, in PCE, and in private inventory investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a larger decrease in residential fixed investment, and a deceleration in nonresidential structures.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.28 percentage point to the third-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.21 percentage point to the second-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output contributed 0.36 percentage point to the third-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.03 percentage point to
the second-quarter growth.

FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2000)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.

This news release is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, 0.2 percentage point more than the preliminary estimate; this index increased 3.8 percent in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for
gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the second.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the second. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 9.3 percent, compared with an increase of 11.0 percent. Nonresidential structures increased 16.4 percent, compared
with an increase of 26.2 percent. Equipment and software increased 6.2 percent, compared with an increase of 4.7 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 20.5 percent, compared with a decrease of 11.8 percent.

Real exports of goods and services increased 19.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 7.5 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 4.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 2.7 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 6.0 percent in the second. National defense increased 10.1 percent, compared with an increase of 8.5 percent. Nondefense increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent.


The real change in private inventories added 0.89 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.22 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $30.6 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $5.8 billion in the second quarter and $0.1 billion in the first.

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 4.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in the second.

Gross domestic purchases

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second.

Gross national product

Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 5.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent in the second. GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world,
which increased $25.9 billion in the third quarter after increasing $5.8 billion in the second; in the third quarter, receipts increased $32.0 billion, and payments increased $6.1 billion.

Current-dollar GDP

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 6.0 percent, or $201.7 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $13,970.5 billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 6.6 percent, or $216.9 billion.

RevisionsThe final estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is the same as the preliminary estimate, primarily reflecting a small upward revision to personal consumption expenditures that was offset by a small downward revision to private nonfarm inventory investment.

Advance Preliminary Final

(Percent change from preceding quarter)

Real GDP............................... 3.9 4.9 4.9

Current-dollar GDP..................... 4.7 5.9 6.0

Gross domestic purchases price index... 1.6 1.6 1.8

Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $20.5 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $94.7 billion in the second quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- decreased $21.1 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $37.4 billion in the second.


Taxes on corporate income decreased $20.7 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $37.6 billion in the second. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased $0.3 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $57.0 billion in the
second. Dividends increased $23.5 billion, compared with an increase of $24.8 billion; current- production undistributed profits decreased $23.3 billion, in contrast to an increase of $32.2 billion.Domestic profits of financial corporations decreased $32.5 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $52.7 billion in the second. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations decreased $14.4 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $25.3 billion in the second. In the third quarter, real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased, and profits per unit of real product decreased. The decrease in unit profits reflected a decrease in unit prices and an increase in unit labor costs that were partly offset by a decrease in unit nonlabor costs.

The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $26.4 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $16.7 billion in the second. This measure is calculated as (1) receipts by U.S. residents of earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S. residents from unaffiliated foreign corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to their foreign parents plus dividends paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The third-quarter increase was accounted for by a larger increase in receipts than in payments.Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment is the best available measure of industry
profits because estimates of the capital consumption adjustment by industry do not exist. This measure reflects depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax returns. According to this measure, domestic profits of financial and nonfinancial corporations decreased in the third quarter. The decrease in nonfinancial corporations reflected a decrease in manufacturing that was partly offset by increases in all the other industries shown. Within manufacturing, the decrease was more than accounted for by petroleum.

Profits before tax decreased $51.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $115.7 billion in the second. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from current production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments convert
depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital consumption adjustment decreased $3.0 billion in the third quarter (from -$234.4 billion to -$237.4 billion), compared with a decrease of $6.5 billion in the second. The inventory valuation adjustment increased $34.4
billion (from -$54.7 billion to -$20.3 billion), in contrast to a decrease of $14.5 billion.

第三季美國GDP還見4.9%的大幅增長,要密切注意第四季的數字。但生產利潤、公司現金流和財務公司的利益由第二季的增長逆轉為第三季的下跌,數據令市場憂心忡忡。




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