讀Yale還是唸Stanford -兩個免費的大學網上宗教課程

現在有很多美國知名的大學，都將課程內容原汁原味地擺到互聯網上供有心人免費自修。修讀者除了不能獲取學分，一樣可以享受一流的大學教授出色的授課。有心者甚至可以按指示完成閱讀習作、功課和考試。你的習作和考試當然不會獲得有關教授的批改。不過如果真的遇上不明白的地方，妨可以用電郵向有關的學者請教。雖然一定會收到答覆，但是如果你問的是好問題，熱心於學術的教授一定會不吝賜教。我個人經驗，向一位美國太空總署的科學家請教他發表的文章中的一些問題，在短於三小時內就收到他的電郵回覆。

這次有大家介紹的第一個課程是耶魯大學(Yale University)的『舊約簡介 Introduction to the Old Testament (Hebrew Bible)』 。課程由海耶教授(Professor Hayes)講授。舊約聖經是古代以色列民族宗教及思想的記載，也是西方文明的基礎。海耶教授會教導大家用多種學術方法去研讀及詮釋舊約。課程會注重古代近東的歷史及文化對舊約聖經的影響。課程除每節影像內容外，還包括課程內容的文字本、功課和考試。約克大學的網上課程雖起步較遲，但內容及形式上則較優勝。

推介的第二個課程是史丹福大學(Stanford University )的『歷史中的耶穌 Historical Jesus』。課程需用萍果的iTunes收聽，這個課程用歷史學的方法及角度去看耶穌。並且找出歷史角度和信仰角度中的分別。課程由唐盛教授(Professor Tom Sheehan)主講。課程只提供聲音檔。但教授的講解十分精彩。如果你擁有iPod更可以下載於平時聆聽。

兩個課程並非神學課程而是大學的宗教課程，基督徒的弟兄姐妹未必接受其中的所有論點及見解。對於一個勇於獨立地批判性思考的人，這兩個課程可以令我們更全面認識舊約及認識歷史中的基督。願愛我們主祝福大家，靈命長進。

Technorati : 網上宗教課程，舊約，耶穌

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十）消費者信心指數

消費支出占了經濟總體需求的一半以上，所以無論是政府決策部門、經濟學家和投資者等都會高度關注消費者的心態變化。

基於對美國5000個家庭的調查，然後編制成3個主要指標，並進行季節性調整，這三個指標分別代表信心、期望和現狀。

關於消費者信心調查的指數主要有三個，而每個調查都有其局限性和可取性，相對于以下消費者情緒調查，本指數更注重的是家庭對勞動市場的反應。

在2007年12月27日發佈的消費者信心指數如下

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had been declining since the summer, posted a slight increase in December. The Index now stands at 88.6 (1985=100), up from 87.8 in November. The Present Situation Index, however, decreased to 108.3 from 115.7 in November. The Expectations Index rose to 75.5 from 69.1.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "This month's slight gain in Confidence was due solely to an increase in the Expectations Index. Consumers' short-term outlook regarding business conditions, employment, inflation and stock prices improved marginally. However, while consumers are less negative about the near-term future, they remain far from optimistic. Furthermore, persistent declines in the Present Situation Index indicate the economy is still losing momentum. In fact, in assessing the current job market, pessimists now outnumber optimists. Regarding business conditions, the gap between the two is almost nonexistent."

Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions continues to paint a dismal picture. Those claiming conditions are "good" decreased to 20.3 percent from 22.5 percent. Those saying conditions are "bad" increased to 20.0 percent from 18.9 percent. Consumers' assessment of the job market was also less positive. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 23.5 percent from 21.4 percent, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" declined to 22.7 percent from 23.3 percent in November.

Consumers' short-term expectations, while reversing a four-month slide, remain at levels that bear watching. Those expecting business conditions to worsen in the next six months decreased to 14.1 percent from 16.6 percent. Those anticipating business conditions to improve increased to 13.8 percent from 12.4 percent.

The outlook for the labor market was also less pessimistic. The percent of consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead inched up to 11.2 percent from 10.6 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs edged down to 19.9 percent from 22.8 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase in the months ahead decreased to 19.0 percent from 19.4 percent.

消費者信心指數由8月下跌至11月，12月的輕微上升並說明劣勢已轉，因此對美國經濟持審慎而樂觀的態度。

Technorati : 消費者信心指數

美國重要經濟資料解讀（九）零售銷售額

消費者支出構成了全部經濟活動的70％，而零售銷售額占了其中的1/3。所以這個數字的重要性不言而喻，但是它並沒有反映服務方面的支出，只是反映了有形商品方面的支出。


總共對13000家零售商進行調查。

零售額第一次公佈的資料都是不太穩定，經常要作出較大幅度的修正。

從圖中所見連同食品的零售銷售額的按年升幅開始放緩，市傳美國繼減息之後會減稅支持經濟。在大選年，政府用盡行政措施去救次按和經濟並不令人託異。

Technorati : 零售銷售額

美國重要經濟資料解讀（八）耐用品訂單

是一個反映未來經濟活動的經濟指標，當耐用品訂單數量上升時，一般會被投資市場視作一個利好的信號，反之亦然。耐用品訂單由於使用壽命是 3 年以上的產品，其訂單增加反映的是人們對未來經濟的看好，耐用品是企業投資支出的重要組成部分，耐用品需求量增加也代表著投資支出的增加，也意味就業和消費的進一步改善。

資料代表著 89 個工業類別的 3500 家廠商。

最大的缺點是數位起伏大，所以參考時要考慮剔除國防和飛機這些大單的影響。1月3日公佈的2007年耐用品訂單如下：

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down four consecutive months, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $214.1 billion, revised from the previously published 0.1 percent increase. This followed a 0.5 percent October decrease.

耐用品定單連續四個月下跌，雖然美國政府大力唱好美國經濟，有閱讀本Blog的讀者，相信由各種數據中，見到美國經濟衰退的陰影揮之不去。聯儲在本月再減息的機會也大大增加。美股的表現依然不大樂觀。

Technorati : 耐用品訂單

美國重要經濟資料解讀（七）每週失業救濟申請人數

這個指標同樣是市場上最矚目的經濟指標之一。因為就業是涉及到未來的經濟發展動力，所以這個是一個前瞻性的指標。目前美國是個完全消費型的社會，消費意欲是經濟的最大動力所在，如果每週都有不少美國人丟掉工作的話而申請失業救濟的話，會嚴重抑制消費信心。而由於資料每週都公佈，是投資市場的焦點所在，失業人數的大幅增加，美國政府的財政壓力也就隨之增大，對於得了"雙赤絕症"的美國經濟來說也是一個考驗，所以政府也會採取相應政策來刺激經濟的動力。

這裏要注意的是申請人分為兩類，第一類是首次申請，第二類是持續申請。同時由於資料每週公佈，有時候受到一些特殊的因素影響，如該周的工作日不足五天等等。所以除了每週數字外，還會公佈的是四周的移動平均數，以減少數位的波動性。

美國勞工部在1月3日發出的報告如下：

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Dec. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 336,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 343,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 344,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending Dec. 22, an increase of 0.1 percentage point the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 22 was 2,761,000, an increase of 46,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,715,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,687,000, an increase of 42,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,645,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 510,652 in the week ending Dec. 29, an increase of 54,681 from the previous week. There were 499,979 initial claims in the comparable week in 2006.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent during the week ending Dec. 22, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,819,269, an increase of 3,918 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.0 percent and the volume was 2,654,693.

Extended benefits were not available in any state during the week ending Dec. 15.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,915 in the week ending Dec. 22, an increase of 167 from the prior week. There were 1,491 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 5 from the preceding week.

There were 16,760 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Dec. 15, a decrease of 1,207 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 24,057, a decrease of 484 from the prior week.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Dec. 15 were in Alaska (4.3 percent), Michigan (3.6), Pennsylvania (3.3), Rhode Island (3.1), Wisconsin (3.0), California (2.9), New Jersey (2.9), Oregon (2.9), Idaho (2.8), Arkansas (2.7), Massachusetts (2.7), and Puerto Rico (2.7).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Dec. 22 were in Michigan (+12,084), California (+6,345), Indiana (+4,754), Texas (+4,388), and Pennsylvania (+4,264), while the largest decreases were in Illinois (-1,819), New York (-1,139), Colorado (-1,075), Florida (-989), and North Carolina (-839).

UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 12/22/2007

根據以上資料，首次申請失業救濟人數並沒有惡化。但持續申請失業救濟人數有輕微增加。

Technorati : 每週失業救濟申請人數

美國重要經濟資料解讀（六）就業形勢分析

工人的工資是家庭的主要收入，就業的人越多，工資的增長都是推動消費的主要因素，而美國的經濟增長動力源於此，就業資料疲弱意味著美國經濟疲弱。因此，經濟指標當中很少象這個指標那麼具影響力，而指標是由一系列的勞動市場指標所組成。由於公佈的時機是在月份結束後的第一個週五，時效性也不用懷疑。就業形勢報告中最引人注意的是失業增長率。

調查主要分為家庭調查和機構調查兩種，綜合起來就可以得出就業形勢的輪廓。機構調查的資料更受到專業人士的歡迎。
除了失業增長率外，我們還要留意非農業就業資料、工作時數變化和每小時或每週收入等等細分數據。

以下是美國勞工部於1月4日發表的就業形勢分析：

The unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent in December, while nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (+18,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job growth in several service-providing industries, including professional and technical services, health care, and food services, was largely offset by job losses in construction and manufacturing.
Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents, or 0.4 percent.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
The number of unemployed persons increased by 474,000 to 7.7 million in December and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 5.0 percent.

A year earlier, the number of unemployed persons was 6.8 million, and the jobless rate was 4.4 percent. (See table A-1.)

In December, unemployment rates rose for several major worker groups--adult men (to 4.4 percent), adult women (4.4 percent), whites (4.4 percent), and Hispanics (6.3 percent). The unemployment rates for teenagers (17.1 percent) and blacks (9.0 percent) were little changed. The unemployment rate for Asians was 3.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted. Most major worker groups experienced increases in their jobless rates over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Both total employment, at 146.2 million, and the employment-population ratio, at 62.7 percent, decreased in December following increases in November. Total employment was essentially unchanged over the year, while the employment-
population ratio declined by 0.7 percentage point over the same period. The civilian labor force was essentially unchanged in December at 153.9 million. The labor force participation rate, at 66.0 percent, was unchanged over the month, but was 0.4 percentage point lower than a year earlier. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million in December, was little changed over the month but was up by 456,000 over the year.
This category includes persons who indicated that they would like to work full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-5.)
2007

January.............. 4.6 4.6 0.0


February............. 4.5 4.5 .0


March................ 4.4 4.4 .0


April................ 4.5 4.5 .0


May.................. 4.5 4.5 .0


June................. 4.5 4.6 .1


July................. 4.6 4.7 .1


August............... 4.6 4.7 .1


September............ 4.7 4.7 .0


October.............. 4.7 4.8 .1


November............. 4.7 4.7 .0


Table C. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age, seasonally adjusted

2006 2007

Employment status, sex, and age
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

TOTAL

Civilian noninstitutional

population(1).......................... 230,108 230,650 230,834 231,034 231,253 231,480 231,713 231,958 232,211 232,461 232,715 232,939 233,156

Civilian labor force.................. 152,709 152,958 152,725 152,884 152,542 152,776 153,085 153,182 152,886 153,506 153,306 153,828 153,866

Participation rate.............. 66.4 66.3 66.2 66.2 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.0

Employed............................ 145,949 145,915 145,888 146,145 145,713 145,913 146,087 146,045 145,753 146,260 146,016 146,647 146,211

Employment-population ratio..... 63.4 63.3 63.2 63.3 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 62.8 62.9 62.7 63.0 62.7

Unemployed.......................... 6,760 7,043 6,837 6,738 6,829 6,863 6,997 7,137 7,133 7,246 7,291 7,181 7,655

Unemployment rate............... 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 5.0

原文可於http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm上找到。美股對此份分析反應強烈，引致上星期五美股的跌市。這份分析令市埸震驚的並非失業率由11月的4.7%微升至12月的5%。最大的隱憂是服務性行業職位的增加正被建造業及制造業職位的減少所抵消。這正正顯示美國的次按風暴及地產市場的調整，開始影響建造業。在港股方面，提供建材、裝修物品、傢俬、燈飾及木料至美國市場的公司，未來應看淡，不應買入及持有。

Technorati : 就業形勢分析