次按風暴(二) 什麼是次按

次級按揭是指一些本身信貸紀錄欠佳的人，透過借入息率較高的按揭去購入房屋。借貸紀錄欠佳的人保括收入未達標、有不良還款紀錄甚或物業估價不足等種種原因。次級按揭的貸款人多數希望在借貸期間重整和修補個人信貸紀錄，透過轉按的安排，將有關按揭成功轉到最優惠利率按揭或低於最優惠利率按揭。因此多數的次按安排年期會較短。而美國最常見的次按分別是兩年定息期的浮息按揭(Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2/28)和三年定息期的浮息按揭(Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3/27)。在定息期過後，次按的利息將是某個指標利息再加若干厘。例如可以是6個月銀行同業拆息加5厘。

很多借取次按的貸款者，並不太暸解在財務上個人面對的風險。次按設有罰息期，而且罰息期的時間可以比定息期長。在定息期內，借貸人未必可以重整和修補個人信貸紀錄，成功進行轉按。如果經濟良好，工資上調時，借貸人可以因為每月薪金上升而提高供款能力，改善個人信貸紀錄。但當經濟逆轉時，工資甚至會下降。當定息期過後，借貸人無機會轉按，唯有要供浮動高利息。另外，在定息期過後，市場利息如大幅上揚，侵蝕借貸人的供款能力，次按也無法轉按。次按借貸人在買樓時正遇上美國樓市的牛市，他們預期樓價在二三年後大幅上升，有助他們轉按及再估價。可是美國樓市現在步入熊市。借貸人唯有徒呼奈何。而定息期過後，如大量供款人無力供樓，貸款人除收樓外將面對大量壞賬。

理論上，聯儲局大幅減息有助次按業主渡過難關。實際上次按問題並非如此簡單，有關詳情，請待下文敘述。

Technorati : Adjustable Rate Mortgage，ARM, 次按

次按風暴(一) 令人失望的伯南克

美國的次按，成為最近全球股市狂升暴跌市場大幅波動的原因。聯儲局在面對這次風暴時，初時置之不理。伯南克在2007年8月7日發表的聲明以關注通漲為由，雖見市場有下跌風險也堅拒減息。聯儲局的決定，令市場對新官上任的伯南克大失信心。市況的穩，令聯儲局被逼在2007年8月10日注資市場。在2007年8月17日再發聲明，表示關注信貸緊縮及財經市場的動盪，而且會適時採取行動。在短短十日內聯儲局的政策前言對後語，出手躊躇舉棋不定，市場大失所望之餘更形恐慌。而伯南克也失卻了減息救次按的最佳時機。聯儲局由主動變被動，不能領導市場，而是被市場牽著鼻子走。

2007年9月18日聯儲局被逼减息50點子，去穩定市場和刺激可持續的經濟增長。聯儲局以相同理由在2007年10月31日減息25點子，在2007年12月11日又減息25點子，但市場依然疲弱。2008年1月22日，因環球股市陷入暴跌，聯儲局在驚徨失措中將息率調低75點子至3.5%。市場的觀感，覺得聯儲局進退失據；甚至懷疑市場可能還有未引爆的炸彈。聯儲局至今共減息175點子，但次按風暴越演越烈。落筆打三更，伯南克已令市場屢屢失望。在對抗次按的一仗中如打敗仗的將軍。

預料聯儲局會不斷減息，不過相信二至三季後才有效力。

本文完成後我在華爾街日報見到這段影片，新聞的標題是《Fed大幅降息遭非議》。

Technorati : 次按

美國重要經濟資料解讀（二十）新屋銷售數字和每週住房抵押貸款申請

這兩個數據是美國樓市的重要指標。在2007年12月28日發表的最新新屋銷售數字的報告如下：

Sales of new one-family houses in November 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 647,000, according to

estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 9.0 percent (±13.9%)* below the revised October rate of 711,000 and is 34.4 percent (±7.9%) below the November 2006 estimate of 987,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2007 was $239,100; the average sales price was $293,300. The
seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 505,000. This represents a supply of 9.3
months at the current sales rate.

New Residential Sales data for December 2007 will be released on Monday, January 28, 2008, at 10:00 A.M. EST.

每週住房抵押貸款申請由 抵押貸款銀行家協會（ MBA ）在2008年1月23日發表：

WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 23, 2008) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 18, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure ofmortgage loan application volume, was 981.5, an increase of 8.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 906.4 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 11.0 percent compared with the previous week and was up 63.7 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

"Refinance applications are up 92% since the beginning of November and purchase applications are up 7%. With tighter credit conditions we do not know how many of these applications will become loans, but it is clear that borrowers are responding to the 40-80 basis point drop in rates we have seen since November 2 across products," said Jay Brinkmann, Vice President of Research and Economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The Refinance Index increased 16.9 percent to 4178.2 from 3575.5 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.6 percent to 439.9 from 461.2 one week earlier. The Conventional Purchase Index decreased 5.5 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) increased 1.0 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the Purchase Index increased 1.1 percent to 369.7 from 365.7 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Conventional Index increased 8.3 percent to 1413.7 from 1305.5 the previous week, and the seasonally adjusted Government Index increased 8.2 percent to 260.9 from 241.2 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 13.7 percent to 782.0 from 687.5. The four week moving average is up 2.8 percent to 419.0 from 407.6 for the Purchase Index, while this average is up 23.6 percent to 2967.2 from 2401.5 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66.0 percent of total applications from 62.7 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 9.3 from 9.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.49 percent from 5.62 percent, with points increasing to 1.07 from 0.94 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.96 percent from 5.07 percent, with points increasing to 1.22 from 1.09 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 5.51 percent from 5.77 percent, with points increasing to 1.01 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

從新屋銷售數字所見，11月的數據按月下降9%而按年下跌34.4%。而截且2008年1月28日的住房抵押貸款申請按週上升8.3%，按年上升63.7%。數據之間十分矛盾，銷售下降而住房抵押貸款申請上升，可能是銀行批核信貸十分謹慎，引致個案大量堆積，而在現行信貸環境下，很多申請未必獲得按揭。

Technorati : 新屋銷售數字, 每週住房抵押貸款申請

號外:聯儲局减息0.75息

聯儲局剛在其網站發出聲明，減息0.75息。聯儲局此行動出乎市場預料之外。疲弱的經濟前景和市場不斷加增的下跌風險是聯儲局出手救市的原因。聯儲局而且指出在將來也會適時出手去處理市場危機。有關行動是否為一劑有效的止痛藥，請大家拭目以待今晚美股及環球市場的表現。

The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent.

The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.

The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Appreciable downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was William Poole, who did not believe that current conditions justified policy action before the regularly scheduled meeting next week. Absent and not voting was Frederic S. Mishkin.

In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Minneapolis.

Technorati : federal funds rate cut

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十九）二手房屋銷售資料

二手房屋銷售是反映美國房地產市道的資料，雖然其重要性要遜色於新屋動工和建造許可證這兩個資料，由於房地產在經濟活動的重要性實在太大，我們有必要全方位瞭解其動向。而次按對二手房屋市場及經濟的影響有多深，這個數字可以帶給我們更全面的圖畫。在2007年12月31日所發佈內容如下

Existing-home sales rose slightly in November, indicating a stabilization in housing in the wake of mortgage disruptions earlier this year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - rose 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.00 million units in November from an upwardly revised pace of 4.98 million in October, but are 20.0 percent below the 6.25 million-unit level in November 2006.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market appears to be stabilizing. "Near term, existing-home sales should continue to hover in a narrow range, just as they have since September, and that's good news because it'll be a further sign that the housing market is stabilizing," he said. "Mortgage interest rates are near historic lows and the most current data shows decelerating price declines, along with a modest reduction in the number of homes on the market." Disruptions in mortgage availability and pricing peaked in August, which caused sales to slow in subsequent months.

The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $210,200 in November, down 3.3 percent from November 2006 when the median was $217,300, but there remains a downward drag on the national median as the mix of closed sales has shifted away from expensive markets.

"Just like the weather, there are large local variations in home prices," Yun said. A quarterly examination of price performance on a metropolitan basis shows nearly two-thirds of metro areas are showing price increases. Among the many metros experiencing healthy local price gains are Farmington, N.M.; Reading, Pa.; Columbia, S.C., and Fargo, N.D.

Total housing inventory declined 3.6 percent at the end of November to 4.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.3-month supply3 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.7-month supply in October. "Inventory is still high, and further reduction in prices may be required in some areas to induce buyers back into the market," Yun said.

NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said that Congress should expand affordable financing. "Consumers have some choices with safer conventional financing, but raising the limit on conforming loans would significantly revive home sales," he said. "This would help creditworthy buyers in hard hit regions like California and Florida by greatly increasing access to low-interest-rate mortgages. NAR, as the leading advocate for homeownership, strongly urges lawmakers to act quickly on this important measure."

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.21 percent in November from 6.38 percent in October; the rate was 6.24 percent in November 2006.

Single-family home sales rose 0.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.40 million in November from 4.37 million in October, but are 19.9 percent below the 5.49 million-unit pace in November 2006. The median existing single-family home price was $208,700 in November, down 3.7 percent from a year earlier.

Existing condominium and co-op sales slipped 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 600,000 units in November from 610,000 in October, and are 20.6 percent below the 756,000-unit level in November 2006. The median existing condo price4 was $221,100, down 0.7 percent from in November 2006.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the West increased 10.3 percent in November to a level of 960,000, but are 25.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $325,800, which is 6.8 percent lower than November 2006.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual rate of 1.18 million in November, but are 16.9 percent below November 2006. The median price in the Midwest was $163,000, down 0.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South declined 2.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.99 million in November, and are 19.4 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $174,200, which is 2.5 percent below November 2006.

Existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 3.3 percent to an annual pace of 870,000 in November, and are 19.4 percent below November 2006. The median price in the Northeast was $258,300, down 3.2 percent from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

這份由全美房地產經紀人協會所提供的報告並非如標題所言二手銷售走向穩定。實情是所有銷售數字和去年同期相比有大約20%的下降，而售價和去年同期相比則有0.7%至3.7%的下跌。經紀人一般傾向唱好，但實情是市場萎縮，市價下滑。美國樓市正陷入冰河期。除非大幅减息超過0.75%，市場或者會走穩。

Technorati : 二手房屋銷售資料

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十八）新屋動工和建造許可證數字

這個是美國房地產行業的一個重要的前瞻性指標。房地產行業無論在哪一個國家都顯得舉足輕重，房地產的繁榮也代表經濟的繁榮相信很少人會反對。房地產業也是經濟週期轉捩點的重要指標之一，往往是最早做出下跌和回升的反應。房地產的繁榮會產生"乘數效應"，對其他行業將產生強而有力的拉動效應，對就業和消費將產生直接的影響，反之亦然。


統計機構向全美19000個地區的建築商進行調查，向他們詢問當地的新開發住宅和登記在案的許可證專案。

新動工住宅是完全意義的新住宅，加建、改建和重建都不計算在內。同時，新動工住宅麼進行季節性調整，我們更應該注意的是3－4個月的平均數多於個別月份的資料。

NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN DECEMBER 2007


The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for December 2007:

BUILDING PERMITS


Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,068,000. This is 8.1 percent (±1.7%) below the revised November rate of 1,162,000 and is 34.4 percent (±2.2%) below the revised December 2006 estimate of 1,628,000.

Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 692,000; this is 10.1 percent (±1.6%) below the November figure of
770,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 322,000 in December.

An estimated 1,376,100 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2007. This is 25.3 percent (±0.8%) below the 2006 figure of 1,838,900.

HOUSING STARTS

Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,006,000. This is 14.2 percent (±8.3%) below
the revised November estimate of 1,173,000 and is 38.2 percent (±4.9%) below the revised December 2006 rate of 1,629,000.

Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 794,000; this is 2.9 percent (±8.7)* below the November figure of 818,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 196,000. An estimated 1,353,700 housing units were started in 2007. This is 24.8 percent (±1.3%) below the 2006 figure of 1,800,900.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS


Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,302,000. This is 7.7 percent (±10.3%)* below the revised November estimate of 1,411,000 and is 31.0 percent (±5.8%) below the revised December 2006 rate of 1,887,000.

Single-family housing completions in December were at a rate of 1,009,000; this is 12.0 percent (±10.5%) below the November figure of 1,146,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 278,000.

An estimated 1,500,200 housing units were completed in 2007. This is 24.2 percent (±1.7%) below the 2006 figure of 1,979,400.

美國次按風暴對建築行業的影響觸目驚心，十二月的新屋建造許可證數字和上月相比下降8.1%，但和去年同期相比下降了34.4%。數字之差，可以為經濟的不振埋下伏筆。而新屋動工數字和上月上月相比下降14.2%，但和去年同期相比下降了38.2%。十二月的新屋完工數字和上月相比下降7.7%，但和去年同期相比下降了31%。可以確見美國樓市步入嚴冬，次按風暴越演越烈。這對環球金融市場的衝擊十分巨大，港股較大的調整在所難免。

Technorati : 新屋動工和建造許可證數字

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十七）個人收入和支出

在美國，消費者的支出是銷售、進口、工廠產出、商業投資和就業增長的主要動力。個人的收入的兩個出路要麼就是消費、要麼就是儲蓄。消費可以推動經濟發展，儲蓄這個問題在美國已經不重要了，過去20年中美國人的儲蓄率是每況愈下。這個資料本身受到公佈時效性的影響而受重視程度較小。



個人收入包括工資和薪水（56％）、業主收入（8％）、租金收入（1.4％）、股票紅利（4.4％）、利息收入（11％）、轉移支付（13％）和其他（6.2％）。

個人支出主要用於：耐用品、非耐用品和服務。2007年11月數據如下:

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2007

BEA 07-61

PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS

NOVEMBER 2007

        Personal income increased $43.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)
increased $32.9 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $110.6 billion, or 1.1 percent.  In October,
personal income increased $24.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $17.0 billion, or 0.2 percent,
and PCE increased $39.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.

                                        2007
                                        July            Aug.            Sept.           Oct.            Nov.
                                                        (Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars        0.6             0.5             0.5             0.2             0.4
Disposable personal income:
 Current dollars                        0.7             0.5             0.5             0.2             0.3
 Chained (2000) dollars                 0.6             0.5             0.2            -0.2            -0.3
Personal consumption expenditures:
 Current dollars                        0.4             0.4             0.5             0.4             1.1
 Chained (2000) dollars                 0.3             0.4             0.2             0.1             0.5

                                Wages and salaries

        Private wage and salary disbursements increased $36.0 billion in November, in contrast to a
decrease of $1.3 billion in October.  Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $6.2 billion, in
contrast to a decrease of $2.2 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $2.9 billion, in contrast to a
decrease of $1.2 billion.  Services-producing industries' payrolls increased $29.8 billion, compared
with an increase of $1.0 billion.  Government wage and salary disbursements increased $4.0 billion,
the same increase as in October.

                                Other personal income

        Supplements to wages and salaries increased $6.0 billion in November, compared with an
increase of $4.4 billion in October.

        Proprietors' income increased $7.2 billion in November, compared with an increase of $3.7
billion in October.  Farm proprietors' income increased $0.5 billion, compared with an increase of
$0.6 billion.  Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $6.7 billion, compared with an increase of $3.1
billion.

        Rental income of persons increased $1.9 billion in November, compared with an increase of
$2.2 billion in October.  Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal
dividend income) increased $2.5 billion, compared with an increase of $2.4 billion.  Personal current
transfer receipts decreased $9.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $9.6 billion. The November
change reflects a decrease in Medicare part D prescription drug benefit payments; the reduction
reflects the annual reconciliation of estimated and actual prescription drug costs.

        Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income --
increased $5.1 billion in November, compared with an increase of $0.2 billion in October.

                                Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

        Personal current taxes increased $10.3 billion in November, compared with an increase of $7.8
billion in October.  Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes
-- increased $32.9 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November, compared with an increase of $17.0 billion,
or 0.2 percent, in October.

                                Personal outlays and personal saving

        Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments
increased $111.9 billion in November, compared with an increase of $41.0 billion in October.  PCE
increased $110.6 billion, compared with an increase of $39.4 billion.

        Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was a negative $48.4 billion in November, in
contrast to a positive $30.7 billion in October.  Personal saving as a percentage of disposable
personal income was a negative 0.5 percent in November, in contrast to a positive 0.3 percent in
October.  Negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income.
Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing
(including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or
other assets, or by using savings from previous periods.  For more information, see the FAQs on
"Personal Saving" on BEA's Web site.

                                Real DPI and real PCE

        Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.3 percent in November,
compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent in October.

        Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.5 percent in November,
compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in October.  Purchases of durable goods increased 0.6
percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent.  Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.6
percent, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent.  Purchases of services increased 0.5 percent,
compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent.

        The price index for PCE increased 0.6 percent in November, compared with an increase of 0.3
percent in October; most of the November increase was accounted for by increases in energy prices.
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, the same increase as in
October.

                                Revisions

        Estimates have been revised for July through October.  Changes in personal income, current-
dollar and chained (2000) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (2000) dollar PCE for
September and October -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

                                                                Change from preceding month

                                        September                                 October
                                        Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised
                                       (Billions of dollars)       (Percent)     (Billions of dollars)       (Percent)
Personal Income:
 Current dollars......................  50.4       53.7      0.4        0.5       21.2       24.8      0.2        0.2
Disposable personal income:
 Current dollars......................  43.2       46.6      0.4        0.5       14.0       17.0      0.1        0.2
 Chained (2000) dollars...............  13.3       14.9      0.2        0.2      -12.4      -13.2     -0.1       -0.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
 Current dollars......................  33.0       48.9      0.3        0.5       23.8       39.4      0.2        0.4
 Chained (2000) dollars...............   5.7       18.0      0.1        0.2       -2.9        7.0      0.0        0.1

        BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov.  By
visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and
announcements.

                            *     *    *

        Next release -- January 31, 2008, at 8:30 A.M. EST for Personal Income and Outlays for December

        Release dates in 2008

        December 2007...   January 31    April 2008...     May 30        August 2008...   September 29
         January 2008...  February 29      May 2008...    June 27     September 2008...     October 31
        February 2008...     March 28     June 2008...   August 4       October 2008...    November 26
           March 2008...       May  1     July 2008...  August 29      November 2008...    December 24

11月的數據十分正面，星期一會有12月的數據，到時再和大家分享。

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