美國重要經濟資料解讀（十六） 國內生產總值（GDP）

反映整體的經濟走向，統計的規模最大也最全面。但是由於是每季度後才公佈，所以時效性和前瞻性欠奉，但是可以視作是對前一季度國民經濟活動的總結。

美國2007年第三季GDP數字在2007年12好20日公佈：

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2007, according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the preliminary estimates issued last month. In the preliminary estimates, the increase in real GDP was also 4.9 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, nonresidential structures, federal government spending, equipment and software, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports,
which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in exports, in PCE, and in private inventory investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a larger decrease in residential fixed investment, and a deceleration in nonresidential structures.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.28 percentage point to the third-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.21 percentage point to the second-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output contributed 0.36 percentage point to the third-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.03 percentage point to
the second-quarter growth.

FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2000)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.

This news release is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, 0.2 percentage point more than the preliminary estimate; this index increased 3.8 percent in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for
gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the second.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the second. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 9.3 percent, compared with an increase of 11.0 percent. Nonresidential structures increased 16.4 percent, compared
with an increase of 26.2 percent. Equipment and software increased 6.2 percent, compared with an increase of 4.7 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 20.5 percent, compared with a decrease of 11.8 percent.

Real exports of goods and services increased 19.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 7.5 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 4.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 2.7 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 6.0 percent in the second. National defense increased 10.1 percent, compared with an increase of 8.5 percent. Nondefense increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent.

The real change in private inventories added 0.89 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.22 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $30.6 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $5.8 billion in the second quarter and $0.1 billion in the first.

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 4.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in the second.

Gross domestic purchases

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second.

Gross national product

Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 5.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent in the second. GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world,
which increased $25.9 billion in the third quarter after increasing $5.8 billion in the second; in the third quarter, receipts increased $32.0 billion, and payments increased $6.1 billion.

Current-dollar GDP

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 6.0 percent, or $201.7 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $13,970.5 billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 6.6 percent, or $216.9 billion.

RevisionsThe final estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is the same as the preliminary estimate, primarily reflecting a small upward revision to personal consumption expenditures that was offset by a small downward revision to private nonfarm inventory investment.

Advance Preliminary Final

(Percent change from preceding quarter)

Real GDP............................... 3.9 4.9 4.9

Current-dollar GDP..................... 4.7 5.9 6.0

Gross domestic purchases price index... 1.6 1.6 1.8

Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $20.5 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $94.7 billion in the second quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- decreased $21.1 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $37.4 billion in the second.

Taxes on corporate income decreased $20.7 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $37.6 billion in the second. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased $0.3 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $57.0 billion in the
second. Dividends increased $23.5 billion, compared with an increase of $24.8 billion; current- production undistributed profits decreased $23.3 billion, in contrast to an increase of $32.2 billion.Domestic profits of financial corporations decreased $32.5 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $52.7 billion in the second. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations decreased $14.4 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $25.3 billion in the second. In the third quarter, real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased, and profits per unit of real product decreased. The decrease in unit profits reflected a decrease in unit prices and an increase in unit labor costs that were partly offset by a decrease in unit nonlabor costs.

The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $26.4 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $16.7 billion in the second. This measure is calculated as (1) receipts by U.S. residents of earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S. residents from unaffiliated foreign corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to their foreign parents plus dividends paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The third-quarter increase was accounted for by a larger increase in receipts than in payments.Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment is the best available measure of industry
profits because estimates of the capital consumption adjustment by industry do not exist. This measure reflects depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax returns. According to this measure, domestic profits of financial and nonfinancial corporations decreased in the third quarter. The decrease in nonfinancial corporations reflected a decrease in manufacturing that was partly offset by increases in all the other industries shown. Within manufacturing, the decrease was more than accounted for by petroleum.

Profits before tax decreased $51.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $115.7 billion in the second. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from current production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments convert
depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital consumption adjustment decreased $3.0 billion in the third quarter (from -$234.4 billion to -$237.4 billion), compared with a decrease of $6.5 billion in the second. The inventory valuation adjustment increased $34.4
billion (from -$54.7 billion to -$20.3 billion), in contrast to a decrease of $14.5 billion.

第三季美國GDP還見4.9%的大幅增長，要密切注意第四季的數字。但生產利潤、公司現金流和財務公司的利益由第二季的增長逆轉為第三季的下跌，數據令市場憂心忡忡。

Technorati : GDP, 國內生產總值

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十五）國際貿易

一個非常重大的經濟資料，由於統計的工作量太大而使其公佈日期沒有時效性。但是貿易赤字是美國經濟每日都面對的問題，國際貿易資料反映了美國國內需求，同時也給美元的匯率帶來影響，當然大家最關心的是美國怎麼去發債填補這個缺口，全球的資金流動也可能因相應的措施而有所變化。這個資料實際上對股市的影響並不算大。

有關數據於2008年1月11日發表：

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total November exports of $142.3 billion and imports of $205.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $63.1 billion, up from $57.8 billion in October, revised. November exports were $0.6 billion more than October exports of $141.7 billion. November imports were $6.0 billion more than October imports of $199.4 billion. In November, the goods deficit increased $5.8 billion from October to $72.7 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.4 billion to $9.6 billion. Exports of goods increased $0.1 billion to $101.0 billion, and imports of goods increased $5.9 billion to $173.7 billion. Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $41.4 billion, and imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $31.8 billion.In November, the goods and services deficit was up $4.7 billion from November 2006. Exports were up $16.4 billion, or 13.0 percent, and imports were up $21.1 billion, or 11.4 percent.

Goods

The October to November change in exports of goods reflected increases in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.5 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.4 billion); other goods ($0.4 billion); and industrial supplies and materials ($0.2 billion). Decreases occurred in capital goods ($0.9 billion) and consumer goods ($0.1 billion). The October to November change in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($4.7 billion); consumer goods ($0.8 billion); other goods ($0.3 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.2 billion); capital goods ($0.2 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.1 billion).The November 2006 to November 2007 change in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($4.0 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($2.5 billion); capital goods ($2.2 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.8 billion); consumer goods ($1.0 billion); and other goods ($0.5 billion).

The November 2006 to November 2007 change in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($12.2 billion); capital goods ($2.1 billion); consumer goods ($1.9 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.2 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.7 billion); and other goods ($0.4 billion).

Services

Services exports increased $0.5 billion from October to November. The increase was mostly accounted for by increases in transfers under U.S. military sales contracts, other transportation, which includes freight and port services, and travel. Changes in other categories of services exports were small.Services imports increased $0.1 billion from October to November. The increase was mostly accounted for by an increase in other private services, which includes items such as business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, and financial services. Changes in other categories of services imports were small.

From November 2006 to November 2007, services exports increased $4.2 billion. The largest increases were in travel ($1.6 billion) and other private services ($1.1 billion).From November 2006 to November 2007, services imports increased $2.4 billion. The largest increases were in other private services ($1.1 billion) and travel ($0.5 billion).

Goods and Services Moving Average

For the three months ending in November, exports of goods and services averaged $141.5 billion, while imports of goods and services averaged $200.8 billion, resulting in an average trade deficit of $59.3 billion. For the three months ending in October, the average trade deficit was $57.3 billion, reflecting average exports of $140.5 billion and average imports of $197.7 billion.

Selected Not Seasonally Adjusted Goods Details

The November figures showed surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Australia $1.0 ($0.9 for October), Hong Kong $1.0 ($1.3), Singapore $0.6 ($0.7), and Egypt $0.3 ($0.5). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China $24.0 ($25.9), Europe $12.0 ($13.7), OPEC $11.8 ($11.0), the European Union $10.4 ($11.9), Mexico $7.6 ($7.5), Japan $7.1 ($8.0), Canada $4.7 ($5.4), Taiwan $1.3 ($1.4), and Korea $1.2 (0.8).Advanced technology products (ATP) exports were $23.6 billion in November and imports were $30.0 billion, resulting in a deficit of $6.4 billion. November exports were $1.6 billion less than the $25.2 billion in October, while imports were $1.9 billion less than the $31.8 billion in October.

Revisions

Goods carry-over in November was $0.3 billion (0.3 percent) for exports and $1.3 billion (0.7 percent) for imports. For October, revised export carry-over was $0.1 billion (0.1 percent), revised down from $0.4 billion (0.3 percent). For October, revised import carry-over was $0.5 billion (0.3 percent), revised down from $1.5 billion (0.8 percent).

Services exports for October were revised up $0.2 billion to $40.8 billion. The revision was mostly accounted for by an upward revision in travel. Services imports for October were virtually unrevised at $31.7 billion.

Technorati : 國際貿易

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十四）工業產值和設備利用率

這是聯儲局兩個非常重要的兩個經濟指標，於同時公佈且相關性強。工業產值儘管只占美國總體經濟的20％，但是工業產值對經濟週期卻非常敏感，所以這是測試經濟走勢的重要指標之一。設備利用率反映的生產設備的使用情況，對通貨膨脹有較好的預測作用，如果設備利用率高於85％的話，通脹壓力就開始形成，而聯儲局將緊盯這個指標作為利率調整的重要依據之一。



工業產值覆蓋了幾乎整個美國的有形產品，而美聯儲每月都搜尋295個工業部門的資料進行匯總，但是由於要在月份結束候兩周發表初步報告，資料只建立在所需資料的55％的基礎之上。


設備利用率是以85個工業部門的設備利用率為計算的基礎，包括67個製造業、16個採掘業和2個公共事業。



工業生產值測量的是產品數量的變化，不考慮產品價格。

最新資料在2008年1月16日由聯儲局發表：

Industrial production was unchanged in December; the change in the index over the previous three months was little revised, with offsetting revisions to September and October. For the fourth quarter, output fell 1.0 percent (annual rate), the first quarterly decrease since the fourth quarter of 2006. At 114.0 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production in December was 1.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Output in the manufacturing sector was unchanged in December. The output of utilities decreased 0.2 percent in December as a result of a decline at gas utilities; the output at mines edged up 0.1 percent after an increase of 1.0 percent in November. Capacity utilization for total industry posted a small decrease in December, to 81.4 percent, a rate slightly below its year-earlier level but 0.4 percentage point above its 1972-2006 average.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY


Seasonally adjusted

Industrial production 2002=100 Percent change


2007 2007 Dec. '06 to


Dec. '07


Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Total index 114.2 113.7 114.0 114.0 .1 -.5 .3 .0 1.5


Previous estimates 114.4 113.6 113.9 .3 -.7 .3

Major market groups


Final Products 115.2 114.3 114.6 114.9 .2 -.8 .3 .3 1.2


Consumer goods 109.5 108.6 108.7 108.8 .0 -.8 .1 .1 .9


Business equipment 134.2 133.3 134.1 135.3 .8 -.7 .7 .8 2.4


Nonindustrial supplies 111.5 111.0 110.8 110.5 .2 -.4 -.2 -.3 .3


Construction 109.3 108.6 108.3 107.3 -.2 -.7 -.2 -.9 -2.2


Materials 114.3 114.1 114.6 114.3 .0 -.2 .5 -.3 2.3

Major industry groups


Manufacturing (see note below) 116.1 115.4 115.7 115.7 .2 -.6 .3 .0 1.1


Previous estimates 116.1 115.3 115.8 .2 -.6 .4


Mining 101.7 101.6 102.6 102.7 1.2 .0 1.0 .1 .2


Utilities 109.7 109.8 109.8 109.6 -1.6 .0 .0 -.2 6.9

Capacity utilization


Percent of capacity Capacity


growth


Dec. '06 to


Dec. '07

Average


1972-2006 1994-95


High 2001-02


Low 2006


Dec. 2007


Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Total industry 81.0 85.1 73.6 81.6 81.9 81.4 81.6 81.4 1.8


Previous estimates 82.1 81.4 81.5

Manufacturing (see note below) 79.8 84.6 71.6 80.5 80.4 79.8 79.8 79.7 2.1


Previous estimates 80.4 79.7 79.9


Mining 87.4 88.9 84.8 92.3 91.2 91.2 92.1 92.1 .4


Utilities 86.7 93.7 83.8 81.8 86.6 86.6 86.5 86.2 1.4

Stage-of-process groups


Crude 86.5 89.5 82.0 89.6 90.0 89.4 90.6 90.3 .5


Primary and semifinished 82.2 88.2 74.6 81.7 82.6 82.0 82.1 81.7 2.2


Finished 77.8 80.5 70.0 79.0 78.6 78.2 78.0 78.3 1.9

Market Groups

The output of consumer goods edged up 0.1 percent in December, as nondurables advanced slightly but durables decreased. Among durable consumer goods, the production index for automotive products moved up 0.2 percent after having risen 1.4 percent in November. Elsewhere the production index for home electronics edged down 0.2 percent, and the production index for appliances, furniture, and carpeting moved down 1.6 percent with widespread decreases among its components. After having decreased for two consecutive months, the production of nondurable non-energy consumer goods advanced 0.5 percent in December with gains in foods and tobacco, paper, and clothing, and a small loss in chemical products. After having increased a revised 1.8 percent in November, the index for consumer energy goods fell 1.0 percent in December.

The index for business equipment moved up 0.8 percent in December and advanced at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter. In December, the output of transit equipment rose 2.3 percent; the gain was concentrated in commercial aircraft. After having risen 2.1 percent in November, the index for information processing equipment increased 0.5 percent in December; despite moderate gains in most components, December's rise in this index was held down by a drop in the output of communications equipment. The index for industrial and other equipment moved up 0.4 percent; output for this sector fell at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

The output of defense and space equipment advanced 0.1 percent in December and was unchanged from its year-earlier level.

In December, the index for construction supplies fell 0.9 percent, its sixth consecutive monthly decline; the index was 2.2 percent below its year-earlier level and declined at an annual rate of 5.4 percent for the fourth quarter as a whole. The index for business supplies was unchanged in December.

The production of materials decreased 0.3 percent in December, which partially reversed its November increase. Among non-energy materials, the index for durable materials decreased 0.4 percent in December. A gain in equipment parts was outweighed by decreases in consumer parts and other durable materials; losses were widespread within these categories. The output of nondurable materials moved down 0.4 percent, with declines in all of its major subcategories.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output was unchanged in December after having increased 0.3 percent in November; manufacturing fell at an annual rate of 1.9 percent for the fourth quarter as a whole. The factory operating rate decreased 0.1 percentage point, to 79.7 percent, a level 0.1 percentage point below its 1972-2006 average. The production of durable goods was unchanged in December and declined at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter. The output of wood products increased 1.1 percent in December after having declined for five consecutive months. Machinery, computer and electronic products, and aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment all posted gains, whereas nonmetallic mineral products and primary metal production posted declines of 2.1 percent and 1.0 percent respectively. The production of nondurable goods edged down 0.1 percent after a gain of similar size in November. Gains in the indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products and for apparel and leather in December were more than offset by reductions in most other categories. The output of non-NAICS industries (newspaper publishing and logging) edged up 0.1 percent.

The output of mines increased 0.1 percent, and the capacity utilization rate for mining was unchanged at 92.1 percent, a rate 4.7 percentage points above its long-run average. The index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent in December. The output of natural gas utilities fell 3.1 percent, and the output of electric utilities edged up 0.3 percent. The operating rate at utilities decreased 0.3 percentage point, to 86.2 percent, a level 0.5 percentage point below its 1972-2006 average.

Capacity utilization at industries grouped by stage of processing changed as follows: For the crude stage, utilization decreased 0.3 percentage point, to 90.3 percent, a rate 3.8 percentage points above its 1972-2006 average. For the primary and semifinished stages, utilization decreased 0.4 percentage point, to 81.7 percent, a rate 0.5 percentage point below its long-run average. For the finished stage, utilization moved up 0.3 percentage point, to 78.3 percent, a rate 0.5 percentage point above its long-run average.

Notice

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue an annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization around the end of March 2008. The revised IP indexes will incorporate data from the 2006 Annual Surveys of Manufactures and data from selected editions of the 2006 Current Industrial Reports, all from the U.S. Census Bureau. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2006 will also be incorporated. The updating will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry as well as changes in the estimation methods for some series. Any changes to methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.

After the publication of the revision, later monthly releases will include new or revised indexes for a six-month reporting window: one month of new data and revisions to the previous five months of data. The new longer reporting window will allow the incorporation of additional lagging data before an annual revision. The longer reporting window will cause the latest month of data shown for a few indexes to be as many as five months earlier than the latest value for aggregate industrial production; data for detailed production indexes are not shown in the supplement to the G.17 until either the underlying data are available or the reporting window is closed. Currently, the data issued for only one or two of the published indexes would be affected by this change.

Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data from the Census Bureau's 2006 Survey of Plant Capacity, which covers manufacturing, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy, and other organizations.

Once the revision is published, it will be available on the Board's website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data will also be available through the website of the Department of Commerce. Further information on these revisions can be obtained from the Board's Industrial Output Section (telephone number 202-452-3197).

Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.

從以上數據所見，美國通漲壓力大，為聯儲進一步减息大開綠燈。資訊科技設備有所上升，但通訊設備回落。對提供軟硬件的公司可看高一線。微軟(4338)的股票值得考慮。建築業連續六個月下跌，個人看好電動工具股創科(669)和旺城(2389)。而傢俬股如卡森(496)、順誠(531)、達藝(997)和照明股瑩輝(1163)應看低一線。木材制品在連續五個月下跌後有回升，三林(3938)表現可能持續令人失望。金屬制品的下跌預視賤金屬及礦藏股可能有下跌之勢。

Technorati : 工業產值和設備利用率

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十三）領先經濟指標

這是個由10個具有前瞻性的經濟指標匯總而成的指標。對未來3－9個月的宏觀經濟走向勾畫出一幅圖畫，儘管不太清晰，但是由於是描述總體經濟的概況，所以仍然受到市場的尊重。

10個指標分別是：（1）製造業平均每週工作時數(19.7%），（2）平均每週首次申領失業救濟人數（2.5%），（3）製造商消費品和原材料新增訂單（5.9％），（4）供應商表現或交貨期指數（2.9％），（5）製造商非國防資本品新增訂單（1.5％），（6）私人住房建造許可證（2％），（7）密歇根大學消費者預期指數（1.9%），（8）S&P500股票指數的股票價格（2.9％），（9）經調整後的M2貨幣供應量（27.7％），（10）10年期國庫券和聯邦基金利率之間的利差（33％）。這些指標不少是本文提及的指標中的分指標。

儘管本指標冠名為領先經濟指標，但是是居於收集其他指標後匯總而成，時效性實在不敢恭維，所以市場敏感度只能是中等。

最新領先經濟指標於2007年12月20日發表，原文如下：

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in November.

The leading index decreased sharply for the second consecutive month in November, and it has been down in four of the last six months. Most of the leading indicators contributed negatively to the index in November, led by large declines in stock prices, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), the index of consumer expectations, and real money supply (M2)*. The vendor performance diffusion index and average workweek were the primary positive contributors to the index this month. The leading index fell 1.2 percent (a decline of 2.3 percent annual rate) from May to November, the largest six-month decrease in the index in six years. However, despite continued weakness in the housing permits and interest rate spread components, the strengths among its components remained balanced with the weaknesses during the past six months.


The coincident index increased modestly in November, and all the component indicators made positive contributions to the index for this month. The index was revised slightly lower in September and October, as a result of downward data revisions to the components. The coincident index increased 0.8 percent (a 1.6 percent annual rate) from May to November and the strengths among the coincident indicators remained very widespread. The lagging index increased again in November, matching the increase in the coincident index for the month, and as a result, the coincident to lagging ratio was unchanged for November.


After having been essentially flat since early 2006, the leading index has weakened sharply in recent months, and it has declined to its lowest level since the middle of 2005. Meanwhile, the coincident index has continued to increase throughout most of this period, but its growth has moderated recently. In addition, real GDP has continued to expand, growing at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent through the third quarter of the year (including a 4.9 percent annual rate growth in the third quarter). The recent behavior of the composite indexes suggest that while slow economic growth is likely in the near term, risks for further economic weakness have increased.


LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were vendor performance, average weekly manufacturing hours, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor - were stock prices, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), index of consumer expectations, real money supply*, building permits, interest rate spread, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials*.

The leading index now stands at 136.3 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.5 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index decreased 1.2 percent, with five out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four of the indicators that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were personal income less transfer payments*, industrial production, employees on nonagricultural payrolls and manufacturing and trade sales*.

The coincident index now stands at 125.1 (1996=100). This index decreased 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident index increased 0.8 percent.

LAGGING INDICATORS. The lagging index stands at 130.2 (1996=100) in November, with four of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were change in CPI for services, commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, change in labor cost per unit of output*, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor - were the average prime rate charged by banks and average duration of unemployment (inverted). The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales** held steady in November. Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in October and increased 0.5 percent in September.

DATA AVAILABILITY AND NOTES. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the three composite indexes and reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 12 Noon on January 19, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.

* Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and the personal consumption expenditure used to deflate the money supply. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales. Series in the lagging index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventories to sales ratio, consumer installment credit to income ratio, change in labor cost per unit of output, the consumer price index, and the personal consumption expenditure used to deflate commercial and industrial loans outstanding.

The procedure used to estimate the current month's personal consumption expenditure deflator (used in the calculation of real money supply and commercial and industrial loans outstanding) now incorporates the current month's consumer price index when it is available before the release of the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators.

Effective with the September 18, 2003 release, the method for calculating manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials (A0M008) and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods (A0M027) has been revised. Both series are now constructed by deflating nominal aggregate new orders data instead of aggregating deflated industry level new orders data. Both the new and the old methods utilize appropriate producer price indices. This simplification remedies several issues raised by the recent conversion of industry data to the North American Classification System (NAICS), as well as several other issues, e.g. the treatment of semiconductor orders. While this simplification caused a slight shift in the levels of both new orders series, the growth rates were essentially the same. As a result, this simplification had no significant effect on the leading index.

The next release is scheduled for Friday, January 18 at 10:00 AM ET.

從以上資料所見，美國經濟步向衰退的風險以日俱增。它對環球投資市場的衝擊，正不斷發酵。

Technorati : 領先經濟指標

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十二）EIA 石油儲存報告

美國能源資訊署（EIA）每週提供有關美國的石油產品的儲存報告，石油作為一項最為重要的商品，近年來對世界經濟的影響力越來越大，其意義已經超過經濟本身。石油產品存貨如果減少，導致石油價格上升，意味著經濟活動可能會受到負面影響，同時也引起投資者對通脹和利率上升的憂慮。

主要是針對原油、汽油和蒸餾油三個主要品種進行統計。最新報告於2008年1月4日發表。內容有六十多頁，對有興趣進行石油產品期貨賣買者十分有用。

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.8 million barrels per day during the week ending January 4, up 389,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 91.3 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production moved higher compared to the previous week, averaging 9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production rose last week, averaging nearly 4.5 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.8 million barrels per day last week, down 203,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 9.7 million barrels per day, or 60,000 barrels per day more than averaged over the same four-week period last year.

Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 131,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 6.8 million barrels compared to the previous week. At 282.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 5.3 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels, and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene
inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 8.1 million barrels
last week, and are in the bottom half of the average range for this
time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 21.3 million barrels per day, up by 2.6 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million barrels per day, or 0.4 percent above the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged nearly 4.5 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 4.9 percent compared to the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 3.1 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.The average world crude oil price on January 4, 2008 was $92.93, $3.17 more than last week's price and $38.30 above a year ago.

WTI was $97.90 per barrel on January 4, 2008, $1.87 more than last week's price and $41.61 more than a year ago. The spot price for
conventional gasoline in the New York Harbor was 247.10 cents per gallon, down 0.15 cent from last week's price but 100.17 cents over a year ago. The spot price for No. 2 heating oil in the New York Harbor was 268.30 cents per gallon, 3.95 cents more than last week's price and 116.02 cents above a year ago.

The national average retail regular gasoline price increased to 310.9 cents per gallon on January 7, 2008, 5.6 cents per gallon more than last week and 80.3 cents over a year ago. The national average
retail diesel fuel price increased to 337.6 cents per gallon, 3.1 cents per gallon above last week and 83.9 cents more than a year ago.

Technorati : EIA石油儲存報告

美國重要經濟資料解讀（十一）消費者情緒調查

消費者情緒調查由於時效性較佳，這個指標被認為是領先的經濟指標之一，且歷史較長，在市場上的作用應該可以說更大一些。

受調查人士有500個，被問及有關當前和未來的個人財務狀況與昂貴品採購計畫的50個問題。

調查是基於對於個人收入的預期，預期的時間為1－5年，調查結果分為初值和終值。結果預示了消費者是否有用錢的意願。

2007年12月路透密芝根大學消費者情緒調查全文如下：

The decline in consumer confidence came to a near stand-still in December; that's the good news. The bad news is that confidence remained at a two year low. "It is too soon to interpret the stabilization of confidence as a signal that conditions are about to improve," according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Consumers still express the same concerns about the high cost of fuel, food, and utilities as well as a diminished sense of financial security caused by falling home prices.


Although the data does not yet signal an impending recession, it does indicate that the pace of growth in consumer spending will nearly come to a halt in the upcoming months. "The consumer confidence data indicate that personal consumption spending will grow by 2.0% in 2008 over 2007, with the pace of growth starting from a low of about 1.0% in the 1st quarter and then rising in the balance of the year," Curtin said. The risk that a recession develops is uncomfortably high, however. "Robust job and wage growth will be critical to offset the negative impact of higher inflation and falling home values," according to Curtin.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment was 75.5 in the December 2007 survey, barely below the 76.1 in November, but significantly below the 91.7 recorded in December of 2006. The Index of Consumer Expectations, a closely watched component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, was 65.6 in the December 2007 survey, just below the 66.2 in November, but well below the 81.2 recorded last December. The Current Economic Conditions Index was 91.0 in the December 2007 survey, slightly below the 91.5 in November, but significantly below the 108.1 recorded last December.

The November and December surveys have recorded the largest gap in more than a quarter century in how
different income groups assessed their financial situation. The record gap was due to both the impact of rising prices
as well as the frequency of income increases. The devastating impact of high fuel, food, and utility prices on the
budgets of households in the lowest third of the income distribution meant that fully half of these households reported a worsening financial situation. In contrast, among the top third of the income distribution, widespread income gains have meant that half of those in the upper income tier reported being better off financially.

More homeowners reported that their home had lost value in the December survey than any other time in the
two decades the question has been asked. In the December 2007 survey, 31% of all homeowners reported the value of their home had declined, up from a low of just 3% two years ago and above the 1992 peak of 24%. When asked about prospects for the year ahead, nearly one-in-four home owners expected price declines. The declines were
largest in the West and Northeast, and owners of highest valued homes reported the largest percentage declines.

Vehicle buying plans were at the lowest level since the recession in the early 1990's. "Although some of the
declines reflected uncertainty about future gas prices and the future course of the economy, most of the decline can be attributed to what consumers view as less attractive discounts offered by manufacturers," Curtin said. Fewer consumers mentioned the availability of discounts on prices and interest rates than since just before the start of the
2001 recession. There is no doubt that consumers will test the will of manufacturers to avoid deeply discounting vehicles in the months ahead.

美國消費者信心指數再次揭示美國經濟疲弱堪，欲振乏力。

Technorati : 消費者情緒調查