市場在聯儲局公開市場委員會（FOMC）每年8次的會議前夕，總是喜歡猜測和預測該次會議對利率政策的取向，甚至連語氣和用詞都斤斤計較，主要是FOMC是決定美國利率走向的主宰者，而利率是美國經濟未來增長的最重要因素，它的變化都會令消費支出、公司利潤、政府預算及股票債券和美元的價值都受到影響。利率不單直接影響到美國，也直接影響香港，因為香港實行的是聯繫匯率，所以在眾多的美國經濟資料當中，FOMC的會後聲明，可以說是對香港市場的影響最為直接的美國經濟資料或指標。而每當FOMC的會後聲明與市場的預測有所出入時，或用詞語氣方面有所改變時，都難免引起投資市場的波動。
聯儲局公開市場委員會（FOMC）由19位成員組成，包括7位聯邦儲備委員會委員和12位元地區聯邦儲備銀行主席。FOMC只有12位人士具有投票權，7位委員和紐約聯儲銀行主席具有永久投票權，剩下4個投票席位由其餘成員輪任。
下面是一份最新的會後聲明，發表於 December 11, 2007
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/4 percent.
Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks. Today's action, combined with the policy actions taken earlier, should help promote moderate growth over time.
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but elevated energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Recent developments, including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic growth and inflation. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to lower the target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at this meeting.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis.
到底這份聲明有什麼啓示呢？聯儲局决定减息25點而聯邦基金利率是4.25%。其實美國的建屋及消費十分疲弱，而且財經市場的不穩定性增加。雖然面對能源及商品價格的上升和通漲的壓力，為了維持及刺激經濟的温和增長，聯儲局被逼減息。本來减息是有利美股的好事，但金融動盪經濟不穩下，美股表現並不樂觀。而受美股影響好深的港般表現也會特別的好。在聯儲局理事中有一位投票要求减息50點，展望美息有再減的空間。美股、美滙及港股牛皮或牛皮向下的可能性較大。
|