消費支出占了經濟總體需求的一半以上，所以無論是政府決策部門、經濟學家和投資者等都會高度關注消費者的心態變化。
基於對美國5000個家庭的調查，然後編制成3個主要指標，並進行季節性調整，這三個指標分別代表信心、期望和現狀。
關於消費者信心調查的指數主要有三個，而每個調查都有其局限性和可取性，相對于以下消費者情緒調查，本指數更注重的是家庭對勞動市場的反應。
在2007年12月27日發佈的消費者信心指數如下
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had been declining since the summer, posted a slight increase in December. The Index now stands at 88.6 (1985=100), up from 87.8 in November. The Present Situation Index, however, decreased to 108.3 from 115.7 in November. The Expectations Index rose to 75.5 from 69.1.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "This month's slight gain in Confidence was due solely to an increase in the Expectations Index. Consumers' short-term outlook regarding business conditions, employment, inflation and stock prices improved marginally. However, while consumers are less negative about the near-term future, they remain far from optimistic. Furthermore, persistent declines in the Present Situation Index indicate the economy is still losing momentum. In fact, in assessing the current job market, pessimists now outnumber optimists. Regarding business conditions, the gap between the two is almost nonexistent."
Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions continues to paint a dismal picture. Those claiming conditions are "good" decreased to 20.3 percent from 22.5 percent. Those saying conditions are "bad" increased to 20.0 percent from 18.9 percent. Consumers' assessment of the job market was also less positive. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 23.5 percent from 21.4 percent, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" declined to 22.7 percent from 23.3 percent in November.
Consumers' short-term expectations, while reversing a four-month slide, remain at levels that bear watching. Those expecting business conditions to worsen in the next six months decreased to 14.1 percent from 16.6 percent. Those anticipating business conditions to improve increased to 13.8 percent from 12.4 percent.
The outlook for the labor market was also less pessimistic. The percent of consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead inched up to 11.2 percent from 10.6 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs edged down to 19.9 percent from 22.8 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase in the months ahead decreased to 19.0 percent from 19.4 percent.
消費者信心指數由8月下跌至11月，12月的輕微上升並說明劣勢已轉，因此對美國經濟持審慎而樂觀的態度。
|