消費者情緒調查由於時效性較佳，這個指標被認為是領先的經濟指標之一，且歷史較長，在市場上的作用應該可以說更大一些。
受調查人士有500個，被問及有關當前和未來的個人財務狀況與昂貴品採購計畫的50個問題。
調查是基於對於個人收入的預期，預期的時間為1－5年，調查結果分為初值和終值。結果預示了消費者是否有用錢的意願。
2007年12月路透密芝根大學消費者情緒調查全文如下：
The decline in consumer confidence came to a near stand-still in December; that's the good news. The bad news is that confidence remained at a two year low. "It is too soon to interpret the stabilization of confidence as a signal that conditions are about to improve," according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Consumers still express the same concerns about the high cost of fuel, food, and utilities as well as a diminished sense of financial security caused by falling home prices.
Although the data does not yet signal an impending recession, it does indicate that the pace of growth in consumer spending will nearly come to a halt in the upcoming months. "The consumer confidence data indicate that personal consumption spending will grow by 2.0% in 2008 over 2007, with the pace of growth starting from a low of about 1.0% in the 1st quarter and then rising in the balance of the year," Curtin said. The risk that a recession develops is uncomfortably high, however. "Robust job and wage growth will be critical to offset the negative impact of higher inflation and falling home values," according to Curtin.
The Index of Consumer Sentiment was 75.5 in the December 2007 survey, barely below the 76.1 in November, but significantly below the 91.7 recorded in December of 2006. The Index of Consumer Expectations, a closely watched component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, was 65.6 in the December 2007 survey, just below the 66.2 in November, but well below the 81.2 recorded last December. The Current Economic Conditions Index was 91.0 in the December 2007 survey, slightly below the 91.5 in November, but significantly below the 108.1 recorded last December.
The November and December surveys have recorded the largest gap in more than a quarter century in how
different income groups assessed their financial situation. The record gap was due to both the impact of rising prices
as well as the frequency of income increases. The devastating impact of high fuel, food, and utility prices on the
budgets of households in the lowest third of the income distribution meant that fully half of these households reported a worsening financial situation. In contrast, among the top third of the income distribution, widespread income gains have meant that half of those in the upper income tier reported being better off financially.
More homeowners reported that their home had lost value in the December survey than any other time in the
two decades the question has been asked. In the December 2007 survey, 31% of all homeowners reported the value of their home had declined, up from a low of just 3% two years ago and above the 1992 peak of 24%. When asked about prospects for the year ahead, nearly one-in-four home owners expected price declines. The declines were
largest in the West and Northeast, and owners of highest valued homes reported the largest percentage declines.
Vehicle buying plans were at the lowest level since the recession in the early 1990's. "Although some of the
declines reflected uncertainty about future gas prices and the future course of the economy, most of the decline can be attributed to what consumers view as less attractive discounts offered by manufacturers," Curtin said. Fewer consumers mentioned the availability of discounts on prices and interest rates than since just before the start of the
2001 recession. There is no doubt that consumers will test the will of manufacturers to avoid deeply discounting vehicles in the months ahead.
|