2008-01-07

美國重要經濟資料解讀(六)就業形勢分析

工人的工資是家庭的主要收入,就業的人越多,工資的增長都是推動消費的主要因素,而美國的經濟增長動力源於此,就業資料疲弱意味著美國經濟疲弱。因此,經濟指標當中很少象這個指標那麼具影響力,而指標是由一系列的勞動市場指標所組成。由於公佈的時機是在月份結束後的第一個週五,時效性也不用懷疑。就業形勢報告中最引人注意的是失業增長率。

調查主要分為家庭調查和機構調查兩種,綜合起來就可以得出就業形勢的輪廓。機構調查的資料更受到專業人士的歡迎。
除了失業增長率外,我們還要留意非農業就業資料、工作時數變化和每小時或每週收入等等細分數據。

以下是美國勞工部於1月4日發表的就業形勢分析:


The unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent in December, while nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (+18,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job growth in several service-providing industries, including professional and technical services, health care, and food services, was largely offset by job losses in construction and manufacturing.
Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents, or 0.4 percent.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
The number of unemployed persons increased by 474,000 to 7.7 million in December and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 5.0 percent.

A year earlier, the number of unemployed persons was 6.8 million, and the jobless rate was 4.4 percent. (See table A-1.)

In December, unemployment rates rose for several major worker groups--adult men (to 4.4 percent), adult women (4.4 percent), whites (4.4 percent), and Hispanics (6.3 percent). The unemployment rates for teenagers (17.1 percent) and blacks (9.0 percent) were little changed. The unemployment rate for Asians was 3.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted. Most major worker groups experienced increases in their jobless rates over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Both total employment, at 146.2 million, and the employment-population ratio, at 62.7 percent, decreased in December following increases in November. Total employment was essentially unchanged over the year, while the employment-
population ratio declined by 0.7 percentage point over the same period. The civilian labor force was essentially unchanged in December at 153.9 million. The labor force participation rate, at 66.0 percent, was unchanged over the month, but was 0.4 percentage point lower than a year earlier. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million in December, was little changed over the month but was up by 456,000 over the year.
This category includes persons who indicated that they would like to work full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-5.)
2007

January.............. 4.6 4.6 0.0


February............. 4.5 4.5 .0


March................ 4.4 4.4 .0


April................ 4.5 4.5 .0


May.................. 4.5 4.5 .0


June................. 4.5 4.6 .1


July................. 4.6 4.7 .1


August............... 4.6 4.7 .1


September............ 4.7 4.7 .0


October.............. 4.7 4.8 .1


November............. 4.7 4.7 .0


Table C. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age, seasonally adjusted

2006 2007

Employment status, sex, and age
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

TOTAL

Civilian noninstitutional

population(1).......................... 230,108 230,650 230,834 231,034 231,253 231,480 231,713 231,958 232,211 232,461 232,715 232,939 233,156

Civilian labor force.................. 152,709 152,958 152,725 152,884 152,542 152,776 153,085 153,182 152,886 153,506 153,306 153,828 153,866

Participation rate.............. 66.4 66.3 66.2 66.2 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.0

Employed............................ 145,949 145,915 145,888 146,145 145,713 145,913 146,087 146,045 145,753 146,260 146,016 146,647 146,211

Employment-population ratio..... 63.4 63.3 63.2 63.3 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 62.8 62.9 62.7 63.0 62.7

Unemployed.......................... 6,760 7,043 6,837 6,738 6,829 6,863 6,997 7,137 7,133 7,246 7,291 7,181 7,655

Unemployment rate............... 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 5.0

原文可於http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm上找到。美股對此份分析反應強烈,引致上星期五美股的跌市。這份分析令市埸震驚的並非失業率由11月的4.7%微升至12月的5%。最大的隱憂是服務性行業職位的增加正被建造業及制造業職位的減少所抵消。這正正顯示美國的次按風暴及地產市場的調整,開始影響建造業。在港股方面,提供建材、裝修物品、傢俬、燈飾及木料至美國市場的公司,未來應看淡,不應買入及持有。




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