2008-01-05

美國重要經濟資料解讀(五)供應管理協會(ISM)製造業調查

供應管理協會每月發佈兩項資料,而被市場普遍認同的是製造業資料。由於此項資料的調查物件是採購經紀人,這些人處於生產活動的前沿,對經濟的起伏有著高度的敏感性,所以資料的調查機構看上去並不起眼,但是資料還是受到歡迎,當然,其中一個原因是其時效性,指標選擇在每月結束後的第一個工作日公佈。

ISM每月向400家代表20個不同工業部門的成員公司調查,內容包括新增訂貨量、產量、就業、供應商供貨期、存貨量、顧客存貨量、價格、積壓訂貨量、新增出口訂貨量和進口等10項內容。

如果指數在50以上表明經濟擴張;4350之間表明生產活動收縮;持續低於43表明生產和經濟可能在衰退。


在2008年1月2日發表去年12月ISM製造業指數報47.7%,原文照錄如下:


Manufacturing failed to grow in December as the PMI registered 47.7 percent, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points when compared to November's reading of 50.8 percent. This is the first month that the manufacturing sector has failed to grow since January 2007. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.


A PMI in excess of 41.9 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates that the overall economy is growing while the manufacturing sector is contracting. "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI average for January through December (52.2 percent) corresponds to a 3.2 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) annually. In addition, if the PMI for December (47.7 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 1.8 percent increase in real GDP annually."


THE LAST 12 MONTHS











































MonthPMI
MonthPMI
Dec 200747.7
Jun 200756.0
Nov 200750.8
May 200755.0
Oct 200750.9
Apr 200754.7
Sep 200752.0
Mar 200750.9
Aug 200752.9
Feb 200752.3
Jul 200753.8
Jan 200749.3

從上表所見,12月有顯著的下降,這可能預示美國經濟開始步入寒冬。




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