2008-01-08

美國重要經濟資料解讀(七)每週失業救濟申請人數

這個指標同樣是市場上最矚目的經濟指標之一。因為就業是涉及到未來的經濟發展動力,所以這個是一個前瞻性的指標。目前美國是個完全消費型的社會,消費意欲是經濟的最大動力所在,如果每週都有不少美國人丟掉工作的話而申請失業救濟的話,會嚴重抑制消費信心。而由於資料每週都公佈,是投資市場的焦點所在,失業人數的大幅增加,美國政府的財政壓力也就隨之增大,對於得了"雙赤絕症"的美國經濟來說也是一個考驗,所以政府也會採取相應政策來刺激經濟的動力。

這裏要注意的是申請人分為兩類,第一類是首次申請,第二類是持續申請。同時由於資料每週公佈,有時候受到一些特殊的因素影響,如該周的工作日不足五天等等。所以除了每週數字外,還會公佈的是四周的移動平均數,以減少數位的波動性。


美國勞工部在1月3日發出的報告如下:


UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Dec. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 336,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 343,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 344,500.


The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending Dec. 22, an increase of 0.1 percentage point the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.0 percent.


The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 22 was 2,761,000, an increase of 46,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,715,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,687,000, an increase of 42,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,645,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 510,652 in the week ending Dec. 29, an increase of 54,681 from the previous week. There were 499,979 initial claims in the comparable week in 2006.


The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent during the week ending Dec. 22, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,819,269, an increase of 3,918 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.0 percent and the volume was 2,654,693.


Extended benefits were not available in any state during the week ending Dec. 15.


Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,915 in the week ending Dec. 22, an increase of 167 from the prior week. There were 1,491 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 5 from the preceding week.


There were 16,760 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Dec. 15, a decrease of 1,207 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 24,057, a decrease of 484 from the prior week.


The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Dec. 15 were in Alaska (4.3 percent), Michigan (3.6), Pennsylvania (3.3), Rhode Island (3.1), Wisconsin (3.0), California (2.9), New Jersey (2.9), Oregon (2.9), Idaho (2.8), Arkansas (2.7), Massachusetts (2.7), and Puerto Rico (2.7).


The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Dec. 22 were in Michigan (+12,084), California (+6,345), Indiana (+4,754), Texas (+4,388), and Pennsylvania (+4,264), while the largest decreases were in Illinois (-1,819), New York (-1,139), Colorado (-1,075), Florida (-989), and North Carolina (-839).


UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 12/22/2007


根據以上資料,首次申請失業救濟人數並沒有惡化。但持續申請失業救濟人數有輕微增加。




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